265 karma · joined September 30, 2024
The number of tech companies where you can stay employed for a solid decade without falling victim to layoffs or re-orgs are very rare in my experience, even more so ones that offer competitive pay.
If you find yourself looking for a new job and want to move up in title and pay, doing the same sort of unglamorous work for years can be a detriment to that.
As corporate principles in general go, they were decent, but frequently they were used to excuse poor behavior, so... Yeah.
Forwards looking earnings guidance is also a pet peeve of mine - I've had plenty of stocks take a significant decline because a given company was a few or even a single percentage point shy of what they'd predicted from the previous quarter.
Assuming accurate predictions can be made is foolhardy, and if a company actively makes changes to meet the prediction that are at the cost of long term profits, it doesn't help anyone but day traders, the worst of the worst.
If a business needs the equivalent of a Toyota Corolla, why be upset about the factory workers making the millionth Toyota Corolla?
And the advice looks pretty decent at first glance too.
We're not looking for the Platonic form of the movie review, but just a simple "Is this movie trash? Is it amazing?" aggregated reaction from viewers.
Because junior engineers have no problem with wholeheartedly embracing AI - they don't have enough experience to know what doesn't work yet.
In my personal experience, engineers who have experience are much more hesitant to embrace AI and learn everything about it, because they've seen that there are no magic bullets out there. Or they're just set in their ways.
To management that's AI obsessed, they want those juniors over anyone that would say "Maybe AI isn't everything it's cracked up to be." And it really, really helps that junior engineers are the cheapest to hire.
The hype train is going to keep on moving for a while yet though.
There's an endless series of one pagers with this idea or that idea, but from what I witnessed first hand, the ones that stuck were the ones that made money.
Jassy was a decent guy when I was there, but that was a decade ago. A CEO is a PR machine more than anything else, and the AI hype train has been so strong that if you do anything other than saying AI is the truth, the light and the way, you lose market share to competitors.
AI, much like automation in general, does allow fewer people to do more, but in my experience, customer desires expand to fill a vacuum and if fewer people can do more, they'll want more to the point that they'll keep on hiring more and more people.
Does anyone know of an inexpensive plotter you can buy or build?
For very simple jobs, like working in a call center? Sure.
But the vast majority of all jobs aren't ones that AI can replace. Anything that requires any amount of context sensitive human decision making, for example.
There's no way that AI can deliver on the hype we have now, and it's going to crash. The only question is how hard - a whimper or a bang?
But if someone has saved 6,500 children from dying, it doesn't make any sense to get hung up on it, especially if other doctors are working with him and have no issues with his methods and ability.
Those that are obsessed with process over results make my head hurt. Might as well declare all self-taught programmers as useless when it's clear they're a massive benefit.
Generating clip art is definitely one of them.
Any others?
The article is super focused on the hardware side of things, and to a point, that makes sense. Your hardware has to be able to handle what you're simulating.
But it's not the hardware that's the difficult problem. We're nowhere close to hitting the limits of scaling hardware capability, and every time people declare that we are, they're proven wrong in just a few years, and sometimes even in just a few months.
It's the software. And we're so far away from being able to construct anything that could think like a human being that the beginning of it isn't even in sight.
LLMs are fantastic, but they're not a path to building something more intelligent than a human being, "Superintelligence". I would have a negative amount of surprise if LLMs are an evolutionary dead end as far as building superintelligence goes.
Is modeling neuron interactions the only way to achieve it? No idea. But even doing that for the number of neurons in a human brain is currently in fantasy land and most likely will be for at least a few decades, if not longer.
If I had to characterize the current state of things, we're like Leonardo Da Vinci and his aerial screw. We know what a helicopter could be and have ideas about how it could work, but the supporting things required to make it happen are a long, long way off.
I'd love to know if anyone knows what a solution to this problem might look like.
If I'm not learning new things that will get me the next better job that's a rung up the ladder, there's no point in staying. I've never had a job where that's the case three years in.
There's nothing out there like there was for Counter-Strike 1.6.
There's nothing out there at the moment that can even begin to describe the necessary things for consciousness to exist, let alone self-awareness.
I don't think it's an impossible problem by any means, but I strongly suspect it's far more difficult than just about anyone gives it credit for.
"We'd notice the bandwidth usage!"
"The CPU would spike and it'd be obvious!"
As it turns out, it was not obvious.