663 karma · joined March 13, 2022
Second, the critical aspect making 2008 so bad was the contagion effect throughout financial markets - MBS were so pervasive that suddenly no one knew if their bank's assets were worth anything at all. Uncertainty is the worst for financial markets - they tend to assume the worst which can lead to credit just seizing up. That was a trigger for some of the worst of the economic damage. Despite the recent turbulence for banks, the situation isn't comparable. There banks were holding some of the most widely traded assets, generally considered extremely safe - they simply had too long of a time horizon (which is still poor risk management). No one is worrying that the banks' assets might actually be totally worthless and, with the support signals coming from the Fed and FDIC, it's doubtful the crisis of confidence blows up the way 2008 did.
Retail banking is not some wildly lucrative enterprise, generally speaking - it's the boring, stable-ish segment of finance. They're gonna make roughly the same margin, whether through fees or spread.
Banks have some set of relatively fixed cost, in terms of systems and staff. In a low rate environment, there's virtually no margin to be made on short term lending. Stretching the duration for higher yield is the only way to get margin to cover expenses.
Even in a high rate environment, most of a bank's reserves tend to be short term - savings accounts, 1 year CDs, etc. The things people want to borrow for (e.g. houses, cars) tend to have a longer time horizon to pay off. So if you want banks to actually make those kinds of loans, duration matching doesn't work.
Don't get me wrong, Azure has been quite successful but I don't see their investment into ChatGPT as reflecting any noteworthy change in Microsoft's own internal capabilities.
Also, not everyone even makes their level visible, with makes me miss skeptical of this supposed survey.
That doesn't necessarily translate to shipping production software, so some may be vanity hires as much as people actually working on products. In tighter times that becomes tougher to justify. I have no idea but I wouldn't rule it out.