4,626 karma · joined December 17, 2008
As others have said, your pricing is unpredictable and hard to compute. As I’m evaluating you with competitors, I’m not going to invest the time. In my experience, when a company makes it hard to know what you’re actually going to end up paying, you usually end up paying more than you want (see: Verizon).
From a business perspective, it seems to me your value proposition is that you are striving to be the cheapest email provider. I think you should consider the kind of customer this attracts. The sort of person who thinks a few dollars a month per email address is too expensive is going to be high maintenance. If you want this to be sustainable, I think you need a different angle. Consider that all these other email providers basically charge around the same amount. That isn’t an accident. I don’t know the email business, but I assume it needs a certain margin to actually be sustainable and these guys have landed in the right ballpark.
If you’re looking for business customers, then your pricing is basically rounding error compared to the other guys. It’s not materially different enough to matter for a business of any reasonable size to be worth having as a customer. In fact, the lack of predictability is a major deterrent. Businesses need to create budgets and every variable cost adds to the complexity of the forecast.
Many people for thousands of years have devoted their lives to the search for Truth. It is a journey that takes a lifetime. I don’t believe there is some moment in time where one is able to discern fact from fiction when it comes to the big questions of the meaning of life.
However, seeing my own kids' behavior even when I heavily restrict their screen time makes me question that. When their time is up they wail and moan and yell in a way that goes well beyond the usual kind of complaining kids do. I tightly control the apps that my kids are allowed to use and limit their time (thanks to iOS screen time). In the times when I've taken away iPads as punishment for extended periods, my kids' moods have improved. The amount of arguing has gone down. Their behavior is better. It's inescapable that these things alter them in some way. This is without social media even!
I genuinely don't know what the right answer is. On one hand, they have this amazing machine that is a gateway to all sorts of learning. It's almost like we've stepped into the world of "Diamond Age". On the other hand, it makes them turn into borderline sociopaths, even when they use it for short periods of time. The addictive effect is real too, and that is also frightening. If given the choice between anything and iPad time, iPad time wins hands-down 100% of the time. The human race has entered a whole new unexplored territory.
As I have moved into professional roles with progressively more responsibility, the tools and techniques in this book are what have allowed me to scale myself out in a way that my prior ways of working would not have enabled. Many productivity tips (such as inbox zero) have their roots in this book.
What will happen when this bubble bursts is that we will bail out the bad loans using US taxpayer money. This is another reason why universities can continue to raise tuition rates: they know there is significant political support to having the government "help students pay for college". The government tipped their hand regarding being open to outright forgiveness of debt by including a rule that they do full debt forgiveness if you go work for a non-profit right after school. This turns out to be a fantastic deal if you go to medical school. You can rack up hundreds of thousands of dollars in med school loans, go get a job at non-profit hospital for several years (and get paid market rates for your skills!), and then saddle the US taxpayer with your med school loans.
For purely scientific pursuits the “other camp” on any given issue often has a voice. Unfortunately in this situation, the other camp is largely made up of industry folks. They are happy to fund your research that finds no link as many times as you want. The cost to you as a researcher is being labeled an industry shill. The problem here is sometimes people are industry shills. So separating the good from the bad is nontrivial. This problem is pervasive in scientific research and solutions are non-obvious. Never forget that humans are biased creatures and scientists are not magical. They carry all the same baggage the rest of us do. Many are self aware enough to know it. But doing something about it is quite hard.
Outside of cancer (the only real place where there is a broad clinical application of precision medicine at scale) there’s an estimated 25-30 million people in the US with a rare disease (a disease that affects less than 200,000 people) [1]. There are an estimated 7,000 different rare diseases. That makes rare diseasss more common than cancer in the us which is at about 15 million people [2].
So what if we end up with cancer itself being subdivided into thousands of small diseases (something that is already well underway) in addition to all these “rare” diseases? The current model of developing therapies is just not going to cut it. We need new development methods that are not so cost-intensive and we need new payment models that create enough incentive that individuals and companies take enough risk to identify therapies. It’s a ferociously hard problem.
[1] https://rarediseases.info.nih.gov/diseases/pages/31/faqs-abo...
To simulate humans well enough to eliminate a clinical trial, you would have to simulate every single cell, organ, and organ system as well as the substantial population of bacterial and fungal microorganisms that live on and inside humans (as well as all their unique biology too). Building such a simulation would require a level of knowledge of biology that the human race currently does not possess.
The problem is that obesity is a complex problem. Not everyone who is overweight is a lazy person who eats Doritos on the couch wile watching daytime tv and wondering why they’re so overweight.
Smoking was easy: with extremely rare exception, smokers get lung cancer. Period. Smoking is one of the very few personal behaviors that basically guarantees you will get cancer. It also has the side benefit of annoying the living daylights out of people who don’t smoke which creates social pressure against it. It was pretty much a slam dunk.
I made the mistake with my first two kids of not involving them early enough. Now they think work around the house is something only mom and dad do.
https://stratechery.com/2017/amazons-new-customer/
(Incidentally, his podcast is fantastic)
I've learned that if I'm not excited about getting a candidate an offer letter ASAP, it's likely they're not a good fit. If I have to talk myself into someone and make a list of pro's and con's, they're usually a bad fit.
It's also a great alarm clock if you wear it to bed since it vibrates silently. No more waking my wife up at 3:00AM when I need to catch an early morning flight.
I used a Fitbit for years and was reasonably happy with it. But the reality is that the Fitbit was cheaply made and not especially attractive. If you're already spending $100+ on a fitness tracker that is going to likely break in a year, it isn't that much of a stretch to spend a little more to get a really nice Apple Watch that lasts longer and looks nice when you're dressed up.