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JumpCrisscross

191,760 karma · joined May 31, 2011

Ski. Fly. Growth equity VC.
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JumpCrisscross··on Big Balls Now Exposed to Serious Criminal Charges in at Least Six States
> This is a patsy with no power

Power is often exercised through patsies. Disabling them—and deterring the next one—really does matter. In this case, turning Big Balls into an example could incentives the next stooge to flip.

JumpCrisscross··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> don't put up cameras at all

There seems to be a real reduction in property crime in some places with cameras. I don’t think it’s realistic to take these down everywhere. (I was in the camp that they should go down everywhere. I’ve relaxed that position recently.)

JumpCrisscross··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> a police officer could easily sit in a fixed location and take down license plate numbers that pass by

Not on a busy road. And not while identifying the faces of the drivers.

JumpCrisscross··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> the device should require very specific license plates to scan for

I’d be okay with a 24-hour on device store of scanned plates. That way a stolen car can be tracked ex post facto.

JumpCrisscross··on Reasons I didn't become an EMT, ranked
What is the time commitment for a volunteer EMT?
JumpCrisscross··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
> they are obviously very political judges now

They are—since 2000 Presidents have appointed more polarized judges [1]. (The broader trend began in 1975 [2].) But they’re just as powerful. Their words are absolutely meaningful.

[1] https://www.nber.org/papers/w32920

[2] https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2022/04/political-pola...

JumpCrisscross··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
91 pounds? That’s 2 million doses at 20 mg/dose [1].

[1] https://dancesafe.org/speed/

JumpCrisscross··on An Update on Orion for Linux and Windows
Orion is my daily driver on my Mac. Frankly just don’t want them to break it while making it more and more secure.
JumpCrisscross··on Apple Pass Designer
> find their “prime code” in people’s apps because it’s impossible to find

Just punch in your phone number.

JumpCrisscross··on Apple's smart home camera reportedly won't record video
> what are you using for a Maps app if not Apple?

CoMaps. Though that's probably a bit hardcore for most people.

At the end of the day, Google is worse. But Google has a better set of POIs. If Apple is throwing in the towel on privacy, I'm not sure the degrees matter as much as the difference in quality.

JumpCrisscross··on Apple's smart home camera reportedly won't record video
I so sorely lost faith in Apple when they started serving ads in Maps. I know they're trying to be privacy preserving. But a compromised value isn't a value, it's a guideline.
JumpCrisscross··on OpenAI Parts Ways with Researchers Who Allegedly Shared Confidential Information
"including sharing confidential company information with a third-party AI-safety organization"

We need comprehensive whistleblower protections and programs for reporting corporate conduct that an employee reasonably believes–in this case, corroborated by their CEO–could lead to a national-security incident or loss of human life.

Because given one of the fired employees "served as the company’s technical contact for Redwood Research and METR in their investigation of the Hugging Face incident," it's impossible to distinguish this behavior from retaliation.

JumpCrisscross··on The death of web development education
> no one tests you on your ability to disassemble an engine and rebuild it. They simply make you write a test based off terms you learned in a textbook

Out of curiosity, where–geographically–are you going to school?

If you're able to pass you theoretical tests without AI, it's fair to say you're learning what's being tested.

JumpCrisscross··on The death of web development education
> Superior to any teacher I've ever had

Have you independently verified your learning?

AI is moving fast, so I'm very open to the suggestion that Claude can do today what it couldn't six months ago. But my experience with folks who are learning from AI, historically, has been that they have high confidence in abilities they are not able to demonstrate when asked to show mastery through conventional problem solving.

JumpCrisscross··on An AI sovereign wealth fund isn't progressive – it's techno-imperialism
> the gov claiming a perpetual 21%+ of all income of AI (all) companies is not all that different from owning a small percent of said AI companies

We don’t count reduced taxes as a loss in the same way as losses on equities owned. That changes the electoral incentives.

JumpCrisscross··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
> because the ECB wouldn't support it

Why is this relevant? Athens was bailed out by other European countries and by the IMF. That’s why it had no leverage. France is not in a similar position, partly because its population is also a huge investor itself.

JumpCrisscross··on Why the Bronze Age Collapsed
> ships that can transport an army over a long distance on sea

This isn’t what the Sea Peoples built. It isn’t even what the Romans built. Most Mediterranean cultures lacked the navigational and ship-building expertise to let the shore out of sight. That doesn’t mean they didn’t need skill. But it was less skill than needed for metallurgy, in part because the latter’s inputs are dearer.

JumpCrisscross··on Why the Bronze Age Collapsed
> Sea-ready boats were always scarcer and more expensive than weapons in the first place

Coast-hugging boats can be made from wood with some skill. Weapons in that era requires metal in some part. That required a lot of skill.

JumpCrisscross··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
> which societies, which failures, which "every" are you referring to, exactly?

I'd argue American society is currently failing. We're losing wars. We're racking up debt. We're destroying our institutions. A decent fraction of the population not only expects civil war, but cheers it on.

Meanwhile, in Europe, a similar vein is consistently emerging across the continent. It's done better at resisting. But in part through policing speech.

JumpCrisscross··on Clausewitz, Foucault and Ukraine: When War Becomes Politics and Politics War
You can't name Clausewitz in the title and then say something like "when war becomes politics." War is politics. That's his entire point. War isn't solely a military affair; it's intrinsically a function of the economies and political systems at play.
JumpCrisscross··on What a Massive New 728-Foot-Wide Crater Means for Future Moon Bases
> basically what the moon is for us for most sizes of asteroid

Popular myth. "While the Moon does undeniably experience asteroid impacts, these impacts do not proportionally alleviate the impact risk to Earth; instead, both celestial bodies are subject to independent and interconnected bombardment" [1].

[1] https://iere.org/does-the-moon-protect-the-earth-from-astero...

JumpCrisscross··on What a Massive New 728-Foot-Wide Crater Means for Future Moon Bases
You could create a lunar grid on a betting market with yes/no contracts for impacts above a certain threshold.
JumpCrisscross··on What a Massive New 728-Foot-Wide Crater Means for Future Moon Bases
Or you need really good asteroid defenses.
JumpCrisscross··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
> net effect is ultimately positive. Societies are healthier in many ways when people are free to speak their mind

This is currently not empirically sustained. I hope it will be, in the long run. But if Americans and Europeans keep voting for far-right and -left wing idiots, and China and its similars take the mantle of technological and scientific development, there is a real argument that Enlightenment values don’t apply perfectly in a world with social media and AI.

JumpCrisscross··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
Why not? If every society that embraces a right fails in a similar way, that right should be open to being debated. In a world with social media, I’m not convinced American First-Amendment style (in its ideal form) free speech is as unquestionably good as I once thought it was.
JumpCrisscross··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
> most politicians cannot do this, to be clear

Most voters cannot handle it.

JumpCrisscross··on 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3% to a level not seen in 24 years
> must bring deficit-to-GDP ratio from ~5.8% down to 3% within 3 years

Or what? (Seriously.)

Greece was forced to the table because the market wouldn’t lend to it. So long as France has lenders, why does this rule matter?

JumpCrisscross··on Why the Bronze Age Collapsed
The author also doesn’t really even attempt to explain why the Sea Peoples hypothesis, one pretty well substantiated by a lot of independent evidence, and one which the current consensus theory among experts, is wrong. Is there a prior post we’re supposed to be familiar with?
JumpCrisscross··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
> basic freedoms, like free speech, freedom of the press, etc.

How is that going for us in the west?

Like, I believe in these rights. But I also think we should be open to questioning them when we’ve got anti-vaxxers and Holocaust deniers finding popular purchase among an increasingly and proudly illiterate population.

JumpCrisscross··on Tesla takes on $30B in credit as it approaches unprofitability
No, this is a long-term thing. In high school the minivan I drove to violin practice crapped its engine onto the freeway because it apparently hadn’t had an oil change in years.
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