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JonathanFly

824 karma · joined July 9, 2019

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JonathanFly··on Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”
>What makes lidar for use in self-driving that expensive? I have a robot-vacuum with a lidar that wasn't all that expensive.

Waymo says it cost $75,000 for the lidar in one car a decade ago, and in 2019 they said they got the cost down to $7,500. So at the time Tesla decided to forgo lidar the costs were certainly very high. I'm guessing the range in your vacuum is multiple orders of magnitude less than a car.

Waymo must have been betting costs would drastically fall over time. No idea if it's a lot less than 7500 now.

JonathanFly··on Waymo CEO dismisses Tesla self-driving plan: “This is not how it works”
>However, in the unlikely scenario that 2D videos are sufficient for L5 self-driving, Tesla wins BIG. No one will be even close, especially due to the scale of 2D data that they have gathered.

Potentially Tesla's 2D data lead means they will still be the leader even if the compute resources in the current cars isn't up to the task, and maybe even if they have to add additional sensors like lidar. They can probably retrain their models and still get a lot of out of it.

My personal guess is that full 3D lidar isn't needed, but some additional cameras and other cheap sensors probably are. There's a ton of stuff that costs a fraction of the cost of lidar that might fill in the gaps.

JonathanFly··on Fooling Around with Foveated Rendering
Replying from a phone, lying in bed, using voice to text, too sleepy to proof.
JonathanFly··on Fooling Around with Foveated Rendering
In Carmack's talk this year he said fovisted rendering was basically a mistake. A lot of it was due to hardware implementation details, but it didn't save much GPU resources for the quality hit you took.

One nice benefit of the Quest 2 is that it can run Quest 2 games without be it.

It's still a feature in the Oculus runtime but they only recommend it in specific situations now, and they try and manage the quality outside of the game because way too many developers just cranked it to Max and it made their games look terrible.

JonathanFly··on Oculus Quest 2
They work okay, but I recommend looking on Etsy and finding some magnetic lens adapters for about $25 dollars. They click into the headset and then you take the lenses out of of a specific $10 pair of Zenni Optical lenses and stay attached to the headset itself.
JonathanFly··on Microsoft Statement on TikTok
>I think the main issue is this: >The US views Chinese social media apps as being able to spread criticism (and most likely propaganda) and the US can’t do likewise in China, so they’ll just not let Chinese social media companies operate in the US until that changes.

Then why force them to sell to a US company specifically. Why wasn't Germany or any EU company with strong privacy laws allowed to buy them?

JonathanFly··on Why ‘Civilization’ is a political masterpiece
>I've played every Civilization since the first one, I believe. I think 4 was my favorite, especially since it had the best music.

>Lately I've been wavering from the series though. My biggest complaint is that every game is so long and requires so much micromanagement in the mid-late game.

You may be interested to know that the lead designer of Civilization 4, Soren Johnson, is directly attacking that problem in his most recent game. The TLDR is you have a fixed number of actions you can do each turn which you choose to spend to move a unit, rather than each unit having one action every turn no matter what. So turn times do not increase exponentially like in Civ games.

"Perhaps the most interesting resource in the pool, and the one which makes Old World stand out most from the 4X genre as a whole, is Orders. In most expand ‘em ups, you move each unit once each turn, and that’s that. In Old World, you have a pool of orders (replenished at a variable rate each turn depending on parameters such as your ruler’s legitimacy, the technologies in play, and dozens more), which you can split at will between your units. You might choose to blurt all your orders to a single scout, moving them three or four moves across the landscape until they hit their fatigue limit, or you might focus your whole order pool on a few military units fighting war, or you might go hard on workers building improvements. It’s a novel way of breaking a tradition, and offers flexibility while keeping turn times relatively snappy."

The game is playable now in Early Access, if anyone is interested.

https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2020/04/14/preview-shape-na...

JonathanFly··on Justice Department, states likely to bring antitrust lawsuits against Google
>> Don’t you find it strange that a Republican administration is going after a company for anti-trust?

>Nope. If anything, there is past precedence from the 2001 Antitrust case against Microsoft [1]. Note in that case, it wasn't about whether consumers were directly harmed, but whether Microsoft was abusing its market power to prevent other entrants into the browser space. Arguably this is very analogous to what Google and Facebook are currently being accused of.

The President, March 16:

>The Radical Left is in total command & control of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Google. The Administration is working to remedy this illegal situation. Stay tuned, and send names & events. Thank you Michelle!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/12616266746864476...

JonathanFly··on 'Finally, a virus got me’: Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects
>what did he predict and how has it been proven false?

First example that comes to mind is Mar 19:

"Based on current trends, probably close to zero new cases in US too by end of April"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1240754657263144960

JonathanFly··on Ask HN: I'm a software engineer going blind, how should I prepare?
>Are there blind frontend engineers?

I'm sure this has been mentioned, but front ends need to be usable by blind users so I would imagine a blind front end developer would be extremely useful in that case, at a minimum.

JonathanFly··on Share OBS output as a webcam in Hangouts, Zoom etc
Just what I was looking for. It is quite literally cheaper to buy a used or cheap smartphone than a webcam right now.

Is there anything this good an Android? There's a lot of apps that promise to do it but they look a bit suspicious and I'm wary about putting them on my phone.

JonathanFly··on FDA grants emergency use authorization for 5-13 minute Covid-19 test
Yes, serology tests are antibody tests.
JonathanFly··on FDA grants emergency use authorization for 5-13 minute Covid-19 test
>An ingenious 18 year old glucoses meter company hacked a glucose meter to do it. Interesting past between them and JNJ. They submitted it for EAU.

I was super impressed by this 18 year old, but the company is 18 years old.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/decn-finalizes-fda-pre-eua-14...

Looks like this is a Korean developed test. Pretty cool.

JonathanFly··on GM’s CEO Offers to Make Ventilators in WWII-Style Mobilization
Wouldn't it make more sense to make masks and other PPE first?

You don't need a ventilator if you don't get sick in the first place, masks are much faster to put into immediate production, and impacting the curve earlier is going to have a much bigger effect than later.

I mean make everything. But I have family members working in hospitals right now and they are asking me to search the internet and find masks for them. Not ideal.

JonathanFly··on COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator
The evidence strongly suggest people develop normal immunity from this virus. There are antibody tests around that have detected IgM and IgG antibodies. You might get reinfected, but likely not for six months, and symptoms likely less severe.
JonathanFly··on COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator
The Gates Foundation was on this early:

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/...

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/Media-Center/Press-Releases/...

>The foundation will provide up to $100 million to improve detection, isolation and treatment efforts; protect at-risk populations in Africa and South Asia; and accelerate the development of vaccines, drugs and diagnostics.

That early investment is going to be so valuable. It's not so easy to get those six weeks back by spending 10x the amount the later.

JonathanFly··on Investor update on quarterly guidance
>I'd guess there are hundreds of companies working on COVID-19 vaccines. Here's an interesting one that was sent to me last week: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22313320

Yes, the BBC articles mentions they are mostly smaller companies funded by things like the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. This feels like a coordination problem given the size of the economic damage from stuff like this.

Ideally it would be governments picking up the slack, but if we are so inefficiently allocating money to vaccines that have such big impacts on Apple's supply lines, there's a business case for them hedging with investments of their own.

JonathanFly··on Investor update on quarterly guidance
Given the economic effect of health hazards of viruses like this on big companies like Apple, I wonder if Apple itself couldn't justify investing into research for treatments and vaccines as a hedge against supply line damage. Makes sense purely in terms of business, doesn't it?

Near as I can tell, most of the vaccine development (outside of China) is being funded by charities right now. Drug companies were burned by Ebola investments and are not interesting in working on COVID-19. But if Apple thought they could speed up recovery by even a short time with careful investment here they'd more than make their money back.

>"One would think that the industry has the reserves to jump at this challenge. But none of the four top vaccine companies has shown significant interest," says Dr Ellen 't Hoen, director at medicines law and policy at University Medical Center Groningen in Amsterdam.

>Also speaking at last week's Aspen Institute event, Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said no major pharmaceutical company has come forward to say it would manufacture a vaccine for Covid-19. He called it "very difficult and very frustrating".

>"Companies that have the skill to be able to do it are not going to just sit around and have a warm facility, ready to go for when you need it," Dr Fauci said.

>For Covid-19, charitable donations are being used to spark pharma companies into action to find a vaccine. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51454859

JonathanFly··on Ask HN: What to avoid in life?
It's quite difficult to function avoiding all social media, people communicate via Facebook, developers talk on Twitter, it's just important to be in the space.

But it sure can take over. I've been blocking it at the router level at certain times of the day. Seems like an ok compromise for now.

JonathanFly··on Tricks to start working despite not feeling like it
>Does this mean that, for instance, if you're writing a novel, you start without a structured outline?

It could, but there's no reason you couldn't start with a terrible outline instead of diving right into prose. The point is just that when you see something your brain will stark noticing all the ways it sucks and it gets things going.

JonathanFly··on A small DIY air purifier
Is that little fan really effective? I just duck taped a furnace filter to a 20 dollar box fan. No 3d printer needed.

Just did this recently actually here's a pic https://mobile.twitter.com/jonathanfly/status/12155378275654...

JonathanFly··on Tricks to start working despite not feeling like it
>Start sloppy

>Another trick to start sloppy - you might have high expectations of your finished work.

>You want to write a great book, not just a good one. Or create a stellar artwork, or start a great business. >All those expectations can put more pressure on you than you can bear, leading you to avoid it by procrastinating. >Instead, you can escape those expectations by starting deliberately badly.

I use this one a lot. I always heard it called a 'vomit draft'. It really works. It's easier to see how truly terrible thing could be improved than it is to just start working from a blank slate.

JonathanFly··on Free Audio Books: Download Great Books for Free
If anyone is looking for some free modern genre fiction, I can highly recommend the Worm audiobook: http://audioworm.rein-online.org/

It's longer than the entire Games of Thrones series, plenty of content there. It is a fan created recording and the early parts are a bit rough, but gets more professional over time and eventually becomes extremely polished.

This is a sample (standalone, relatively spoiler free since this is 100% flashback) chapter from the sequel story Ward. Read Worm first but this specific chapter can be read by itself. http://parahumanaudio.com/podcast/gleaming-9-x/

JonathanFly··on AI Update, Late 2019
>Sure, take some pot shots - some are valid criticisms - but OpenAI's Rubic's cube solver being lame does not mean AI needs to be re-evaluated.

There may be genuine criticisms of that particular project, but 'only the actual solving is done via symbolic methods' is a non-sequitur. The Rubik's cube is just a generic physical task that requires dexterity, they could have done the same research with dominoes or blocks or playing Tic-Tac-Toe with random pens in various adverse conditions -- the point wouldn't be that the ML solves or doesn't solve the actual Tic Tac Toe!

JonathanFly··on Visualizing Music with GANs
Looking forward to when you release this, would love to try this with other models!
JonathanFly··on Sleep Deprivation in NBA Players
In my experience it wouldn't help much even if you could, unless the screen is the only light in the room. The only thing that moved the needle for me was wearing glasses that just "night shift" everything.
JonathanFly··on Shareable Jupyter Notebooks That Run on Free Cloud GPUs
I'd be interested in whatever you could offer that's lowest specs in every respect except GPU ram. So 1 GPU, moderate to low everything else, but 24GB of RAM. Right now there's no great way to run those cheaply, even if I want to do something that might only take a few hours.
JonathanFly··on Apple Hides Taiwan Flag in Hong Kong
>Pushing back on China trade >I'm glad the TPP is dead

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-16/best-b...

https://www.piie.com/publications/wp/wp16-2.pdf

JonathanFly··on Show HN: Imagededup – Finding duplicate images made easy
Could this be used to order a large set of images by similarity?
JonathanFly··on Researchers used a neural network to reconstruct a lost Picasso painting
In particular https://twitter.com/jonathanfly/status/1176355623857991681
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