JohnnyMarcone

That's a much easier stance to take for people who are not facing loss of income. If we had wealth redistribution mechanisms in place, I think more people would be pro ai.

Thanks for this comment. I've been trying to find anything about the huge error bars. Do you have any sources you can share for further reading?

How do you know?

This is similar to how Anthropic has treated sonnet/opus as well. At least pre opus 4.5.

To me it seems like the big model has been "look what we can do", and the smaller model is "actually use this one though".

What was the moat in search?

The current leadership retains power in an IPO. Is there a minimum size chuck one has to sell when IPO-ing? How do you know it will be big chunks?

We will all have a great source if they IPO :)

What do you mean by pure play? Claude code alone is 1B revenue. It's not just the API they make money on.

https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-acquires-bun-as-cla...

I saw a Claude ad before watching Wicked for Good in the theater. I was surprised.

He didn't say it's over, just that continued scaling won't be transformational.

You can take a position without being sure about it. e.g. "I'm at 70% that AI is a bubble."

A lot of funding was predicated on them making the transition. Also they would not have been able to IPO without the transition, so there was a funding problem when you look at it that way.

I thought Altman didn't own hardly any equity.

I've also seen Open AI and Anthropic say it's pretty close at least. I'll try to follow up with a source.

They stated the total commitment is 1.4 trillion in their live stream about the restructuring and mentioned an IPO as the most likely path to get that amount of funding.

The non-profit controls the board of the for profit and can replace them at any time. They also serve in the for-profit board. This is according to the NY times article.

An independent panel has to declare agi now.

I reacted more to the current administration than AI. I added a small allocation to international equities. I may increase my bond allocation a bit, but that's because I'm already heavy in stocks and want to focus a little more on preservation.

Aren't you saying it's not hidden behind private equity then?

If you're arguing to not have all investments in NASDAQ, that advice is good for any point in time. At least diversify to a total stock market fund such as VTSAX and have an allocation of bonds to fit your risk tolerance. Maybe add some international equities as well.

Diversifing is smarter than timing the market.

I found some of it funny and entertaining.

They allow limited use on the $20 plan last I knew.

I got a pop-up when I opened the app explaining the change and an option to opt out. That seems very transparent to me.

Imagine being middle class in your late 50s right now and eyeing retirement. Even worse, imagine you were planning to retire this year and now plan to work another couple years due to fear. The cherry being, the entire time you're worried that there will be a recession that will force you to retire before you're ready.

Are you confident enough in that prediction to short the market?

What is your investment horizon and when do you plan to buy back in?

Also did you take a huge take hit to reallocate to bonds or was it all in tax advantage accounts? Seems more crazy to sell all equities when you have to pay tax on the gains.

What will happen in the market if Trump keeps blinking and folds further, congress takes back the tariff power, Trump loses big in the midterms, GOP loses big in 28, AI ends up being a big thing, etc?

You will eventually have to buy back in and you don't know where the bottom is.

If people start turning against Trump, Congress will follow. Look what happened after the 2022 terms. Dems over performed and everyone immediately tried to make Ron Desantis a thing.

Sharks will always be in the water around Trump waiting for him to slip. The question is, will Independents(maybe even some of the base) shift hard away when they start feeling the pain of the tariffs.

Pressure from the electorate, business leaders and foreign governments could spur Congress to act.

To be fair their roadmap states that gpt-5 will unify everything into one model in "months".

I feel like this period has shown that we're not quite ready for a machine god. We'll see if RL hits a wall as well.