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JeremyNT

6,750 karma · joined March 22, 2013

jeremy at etherized dot com

Makes web. Mostly Rails. Not too much.

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JeremyNT··on Danube's record low levels force shutdown of Hungary's only nuclear plant
You can do low(er) head pumped hydro storage [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludington_Pumped_Storage_Power...

JeremyNT··on The End of an Era
> Another prediction is that MOST readers will care about machine-vs-meat as much as they currently care about publishing imprints, which is to say almost none.

This seems like a truly wild prediction to me.

LLMs can synthesize data in useful ways for all sorts of purposes, and I can see how they could be helpful in the process of a human editing and refining a work of fiction they are creating, but I can't imagine why I'd ever tolerate a work of fiction actually generated by an LLM.

The authorship and craft matters, the translation of human feeling and thought to the page matters. This isn't code where it either does what it's supposed to or does not.

Fiction from a machine is of no value.

JeremyNT··on Gemini Robotics 2 brings whole body intelligence to robots
It's certainly an odd situation where Google is on the forefront of all these emerging technologies while the latest chatbots from OpenAI and Anthropic are getting breathless press releases and wildly hyperbolic coverage ("rogue AIs" "too dangerous, must be banned" etc...)

Google acting like a normal but competent company that's just chugging away, meanwhile the hype cycle is propping up its upstart competitors to truly ludicrous valuations.

JeremyNT··on After the AI Crash
> How would one position oneself as an individual investor if one believed this thesis?

Buy and hold real estate, maybe?

I don't think you can really short this because you can't time it. But you can move assets to things that are 1) concrete 2) have utility and 3) that the US gov't won't allow to lose real value for political reasons.

JeremyNT··on LearnVector – Andrew Ng's AI company building one‑to‑one learning experiences
I'm not super familiar with this approach, but couldn't you just respond with an elaboration on how you don't understand a concept when you encounter it and guide the model in the correct direction?
JeremyNT··on Discovering Cryptographic Weaknesses with Claude
IME "creating a good spec" (and good acceptance criteria) has always been one of the most valuable skills in... well, everything.

The machine is really good at working the spec on its own now, which is amazing, science fiction shit. But you've still got a garbage in, garbage out problem at the end of the day, which is pretty much the only hope we who work in software have of remaining somehow employed.

JeremyNT··on US DOT deleting bike lane references
> The real fix for this is to fix the stupid system we have, but for now it's what we're stuck with and this has a real impact you can't overcome locally.

And to elaborate on the stupidity, blue states send more taxes to the federal government, which then doles them back out to subsidize the low cost of living in red states.

So you end up with people in dense urban areas sending tax dollars to Washington, then begging to get the taxes their own citizens paid back, in support of building the infrastructure projects they want locally.

JeremyNT··on Canceling "Hey"
To empathize a bit with the Basecamp employees, DHH has sort of slowly worked his way into the gutter racism that he displays openly now.

Like a lot of his peers, the first Trump administration seemed to unlock a permission structure to be increasingly reactionary in public, facilitated by the overt political bias of Musk's X. We've now reached a point where this sort of "vice signaling" is a great way to gain clout in the overtly nativist tech bro niche in the US.

Which is to say, he wasn't always like this, and it feels like each new blog post is getting worse in a way that, if I were at Basecamp, I might have initially overlooked as the frog was slowly boiled.

JeremyNT··on Five US tech giants' hidden debts soar to $1.65T on opaque AI funding
> And every time some points all of this out, they are "denier", "left behind" and all the other everything-ai fanatics can come up with. As for the imminent crash - I'm all for it. There's a whole generation that is incapable of thinking for themselves without an LLM telling them what to do or worse still - do it for them. And for much of the tech world, that is becoming the single point of failure.

I feel like you can still be an AI maximalist while thinking the numbers simply don't add up.

The problem as I see it is that this is a zero sum game. Nobody has a moat. Even if AI eats all white collar work, where's the profit for these entities? They become commodities and they will compete with each other (and open weight models) only on price, not to mention the workers who lose their jobs to this stuff aren't going to be contributing to the economy at all.

JeremyNT··on Show HN: Clawk – Give coding agents a disposable Linux VM, not your laptop
The way I did it, I've got a convention where I store git checkouts in a specific directory on my laptop. I use the repo name as an argument and the wrapper script creates / shells into the per-project VM.

It uses cloud-init for the initial setup and injects the agent's config file and some other stuff in a ro mount from my laptop. That single subdirectory is mounted rw into a conventional location inside the VM. I inject only credentials to e.g. test environments that don't matter if they're exposed. The agent context instructs it that it can use full sudo and install any utilities from apt that it needs.

So for the ux I do incus-dev-vm.sh shell <projname> or incus-dev-vm.sh opencode <projname> etc.

A fun thing about this is I used nested virt to have the agent write the script - so I spooled up an incus VM myself first, then the agent can run with full privs inside there creating nested VMs to ensure its functionality.

Right now I'm not filtering anything on the VM - with my threat model only limited access is granted and I don't give creds to touch real infra. But you should be able to filter it on the host (I haven't researched the best approach however).

JeremyNT··on That post never existed. Stop listening to that thing
> A fascinating dichotomy has become apparent between those who trust LLM output and those who don’t and don’t understand why you would.

I feel like the most pragmatic perspective is "trust but verify."

This is why they're so effective at coding: you can run the code yourself (or the test suite) to verify that it actually does what it's supposed to.

And maybe these people finding hallucinated results on Rachel's site are doing verification too.

JeremyNT··on Annoying and alarming things about OpenCode
I keep seeing these conceptual complaints about OpenCode but it's unreasonably effective, so it's difficult to justify any time spent in changing to something else.

It hardly matters that it's vibe coded and ugly if it works well... and it does (for me).

Saving a few CPU cycles and reducing RAM utilization on my local system isn't going to meaningfully improve anything in and of itself; the wall time is all bounded by the model or by the code it's invoking (i.e. compiling or running the test suite).

JeremyNT··on Moonshine: Lets you stream games from your PC to any device running Moonlight
Yep, it's really only an option for a dedicated gaming PC (or a VM with the the GPU passed into it).
JeremyNT··on I burned all my tokens researching how to save tokens
Doing a loop and having the model review its own earlier output tends to solve this stuff, and for code requiring good test coverage catches them before they even hit that phase.

So while you can't remove "hallucinations" they're corrected before the process is complete, albeit at the cost of more tokens for verification.

JeremyNT··on Show HN: Clawk – Give coding agents a disposable Linux VM, not your laptop
This is the right idea IMO but I don't want to trust a third party tool for it either (no offense OP!).

Ever since I started running coding agents with shell access I've jailed them inside of VMs. Since I run Linux I can just use incus[0] for the VM management layer.

It's extremely simple, and you can vibe code a shell script to customize your workflow in a few minutes.

[0] https://linuxcontainers.org/incus/

JeremyNT··on Grok uploaded my user directory to xAI's servers
I guess the downside of the lower barrier to entry to use these tools is the lack of basic understanding of exactly this sort of concept.

This sort of thing is why I'm hopeful I'll continue to have employment going forward. Some expertise is hard won and there's just no replacing learning through experience.

JeremyNT··on Grok 4.5
"I'm not political" or "don't make it political" type posts on Musk-related topics are often signs that somebody agrees with the worldview that Musk espouses.

I used to think the HN policy of "do not discuss politics unless it intersects with tech or is novel" was useful, but lately I feel this perspective is part of how we got here, with a white supremacist controlling more wealth than any other human and exerting political influence in heretofore unseen ways. We've decided it's OK to simply look the other way if there's some shiny bauble, and we've missed the forest through the trees.

Musk doesn't do anything that is not politics. This must be called out more, not less, and we need to bring shame back for supporting such an agenda.

JeremyNT··on Should DayQuil Be Legal?
> The main issue with ibuprofen is that it can have fairly annoying (but non-life-threatening) side effects like stomach upset and GI bleeds even with normal dosing.

Those side effects are more problematic when used chronically. This is when acetaminophen shines, because it has virtually no side effects at all when used as directed.

JeremyNT··on Anthropic's Method to Losing Goodwill in a Few Easy Steps
> You can say it's inconvenient but it's hard to argue they're being greedy when they do these things to merely lose a little bit less money on every subscription they sell.

TFA is probably overly inflammatory but it's worth pointing out how this loss leader cycle works.

These companies are not your friends, they're burning VC money to subsidize services before the eventual rug pull, enshittification is coming.

JeremyNT··on GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex
> 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens. Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.

GPT 5.5's double token cost was the threshold for me. These things are getting expensive quickly - the subsidized pricing can't go on forever.

JeremyNT··on Android Developer Verification: Threat masquerading as protection
Android is going to bifurcate between "phones that run proprietary apps from the play store" and "phones that run software from anywhere else." And while maybe you can get by without banking apps, your life is going to get increasingly harder when you want to do many other things.

Ride hail app? Transit fare app? Government ID app? Airline app? Maybe you don't need them yet, but the best way to model this future is to consider what you'd do if you didn't have a phone at all, and the amount of friction this will generate as the expectations are only entrenched and expanded.

I'm glad people are saying no. It's good to do it as long as we can. But the final outcome seems inevitable now and to me it feels very close.

JeremyNT··on Meta caps internal AI token spending
> I agree with you, but every non-engineer I know using these tools 100% will drag and drop a PDF into a chatbot

I'm an engineer and use my coding agent to deal with PDFs all the time. It can reach for unix tools if it needs them.

I don't think I understand why this is a problem - it uses tokens, but it removes drudgery. This is the entire promise of the technology.

JeremyNT··on Android Developer Verification: Threat masquerading as protection
We're moving to a world where it makes sense to have one cheap locked down phone with the society mandated garbage apps on it, and another device that you use for real computing.
JeremyNT··on Trump made more than $1B on crypto deals, part of 2025 windfall
> I think the zeitgeist today is different. Because Trump has dialed the crazy up to eleven in his second term and a lot of Dems are now pissed. That’s why democratic socialism/leftism is having a resurgence. And, based on what I’m seeing on the ground, there’s now a strong appetite for justice and retribution.

Does it really matter how much the minority party is pissed though? The American public knew how corrupt this guy was, shrugged, and voted him back into office.

If Democrats do win back the house and senate it will only be by the thinnest of margins. There seems to be little appetite to fix any of these structural problems outside of the "Democratic base."

JeremyNT··on Supreme Court upholds broad conception of birthright citizenship
> They can't pick and choose "oh no they are in jurisdiction of law A but not in law B". Jurisdiction is a fundamental concept, there's no middle ground.

I mean, they shouldn't do this but clearly they can rule however they want with any pretext they want, because they answer to nobody but themselves. Who's going to tell them they can't do something? Who is left to appeal to?

It's a deeply corrupt and undemocratic institution, with virtually unchecked power to rewrite legislation and even the Constitution at a whim.

JeremyNT··on Qwen 3.6 27B is the sweet spot for local development
I also don't understand why people in this price bracket are buying Mac laptops instead of desktop computers with GPUs? Just to flex that it's portable?
JeremyNT··on Everyone feared AI taking over; the real danger is AI serving just the few
> Maybe I'm not paying close enough attention (probably) - but I feel that China is providing a glimmer of hope that this (only the uber elite can get good AI assistance) isn't true, and we're maybe at a weird inflection point of sorts wrt the leverage that tech can now provide.

I think it's easy for China to be more open right now (and Western governments to essentially not worry about it yet) because they're playing catchup.

If we reach some endpoint where American models stop improving for the general public and only party apparatchiks and sycophantic oligarchs can access them, the situation is different. Chinese models could exceed the publicly available SOTA, and surely they would close off their own models in the same way.

JeremyNT··on U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6
> I felt like it was about 10X better at "pretty" but straightforward 1 shot'ish type tasks. Not so different for complex and specific tasks in real code-bases.

What metric are you using for "better" here? If I've got a straightforward task GPT 5.5 is going to 1shot it anyway.

JeremyNT··on Military branches restore flu shot requirement after virus swept through base
More accurate to call it a mercenary army. These people presumably collected paychecks and benefits the whole time.
JeremyNT··on There are a few things that I look back on as my mistakes in the early days
Still not quite exactly following Carmack's suggestion here... is he saying on that last point that the problems with designers/artists were due to Sandy's mistakes (i.e. not a genuine apologetic "sorry" but a "sorry you're wrong" type response)?
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