HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

JamisonM

1,670 karma · joined August 23, 2010

submissionscomments
JamisonM··on Doctors on TikTok
> Without getting lost in the weeds, there is little protection on deidentified data once it exists.

That's what I said I think.. the law is about making it exist and the standard for being allowed to make it is dictated by the REB - so that's a moving target, you can't say specifically what would be allowed today will be allowed 5 years from now.

JamisonM··on Tijuana's illegal sewer hookups linked to cross-border pollution
You gotta pump the brakes on on the de Tocqueville worship buddy, I love the guy but he didn't unlock the secret of America, pastoralism was a fad at the time and he was as guilty of it as many others. (That said, do listen to these excellent radio shows about his time in America! https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/tocqueville-s-america-revisit... )

> New York City is .. a place where elites leverage ethnic conflict to garner votes

This is sort of an hilarious assertion at this moment in time.. I mean, elites didn't pick Eric Adams to be mayor of NYC.. they think he is a buffoon!

JamisonM··on Doctors on TikTok
"In this hypothetical it is not a privacy violation under ... PHIPA (Ontario, Canada) as consent would not be required."

That is not categorically true, PHIPA requires research ethics board to review research disclosures to determine if consent is required. So what is "too much" information that might violate privacy under Ontario law is a moving target, as our ability to violate privacy with less and less information progresses the standard should be more and more restrictive.

Research use of course does not mean that the data needs to be public, as in my example, and raw data is often not made public. In your example it was, if that same database were created today I am confident the ethics board enlisted to review the disclosure would disallow it.

JamisonM··on Tijuana's illegal sewer hookups linked to cross-border pollution
> It’s an important distinction.

Is it? New York City grew from 60,000-ish to 3 million from 1800 to 1900 - did a person from Europe that move to New York city in 1816 or 1876 immigrate or settle? They were not getting 40 acre land grants!

JamisonM··on Tijuana's illegal sewer hookups linked to cross-border pollution
> Why does a Guatemalan immigrant add more value to American society than a sixth generation Appalachian?

Why would a Guatemalan immigrant + a sixth generation Appalachian add less value to American society than only a single sixth generation Appalachian?

> Where does this thought process come from?

Immigration is a source of economic growth at a certain threshold. China doesn't need net immigration because they have too much labour relative to their economic potential, India likewise. The Japanese on the other hand are indeed considering changing their position on immigration because of a labour imbalance.. in 1995 Japan's per capita GDP was nearly double Canada's.. now Canada is crushing Japan - which has become a nation of retirees. Now perhaps there is a magic formula to generate levels of productivity that can offset the fertility issues that come with prosperity but no nation has managed to find it. The fact of the matter is that all modern research seems to indicate that poorer nations waste labour, rich ones lack it - so net immigration works out to be a win-win in general. (The specifics of skilled immigration is more complicated, there are of course some market inefficiencies in all things.) Japan has invested a lot of public resources into figuring out how to age & grow and they've aged and not grown, if you have a solution to offer them that has worked elsewhere I know they would be excited to hear it.

It would be very surprising to find a large number of Guatemalans saying “what we need to improve this country is a bunch of non-Guatemalans” where non-Guatemalans implied "cheaper labour" because they have lots of cheap labour doing absolutely nothing productive.

JamisonM··on Doctors on TikTok
If there is a publicly available picture of you that you did not consent to be published and literally nobody can currently identify it as you that is still a privacy violation.

It is a violation because of the lack of consent, but it is also a violation because now you have to live with the fact that maybe some other information can link you to that picture in the future. There is no such thing as perfect privacy if any link can be created in the future, and the fear of the creation of that link going forward is itself a problem for the subject.

JamisonM··on Mortality patterns for patients hospitalized during cardiology meetings (2016)
Even with 30-day mortality this can be the case, heart patients I am sure do survive risky procedures and die two weeks later because of complications due to the procedure fairly regularly. (Not that I have an opinion on the root cause here.)
JamisonM··on Electronic Structure of LK-99
> 3. In May we find out apparently our government has recovered alien technologies

This is a silly thing to include on the list since it doesn't seem to be true?

JamisonM··on The Drivers Cooperative: New York’s driver-owned ride-hailing app
They developed a new app and essentially built the business in 2022, I am going to expect that the vast majority of the $1MM is fixed and one-time costs. (Obviously they are amortizing the app cost.. but nonetheless.)

But regardless of that if you are launching a new service business and you've got $5MM is sales and you need to hit $8MM in your second full year of operation to become profitable, I'll call that almost profitable!

JamisonM··on The Drivers Cooperative: New York’s driver-owned ride-hailing app
I don't quite understand the logic here.. the 5.2MM wasn't fixed costs, that was costs of goods sold because they needed to provide the service to earn in income.

So as far as I can tell they lost 318K, but they don't need to grow gross revenue by very much to close the profitability gap.

JamisonM··on Sears offered complete houses in large DIY kits
Don't get me started with aluminum wiring!! ;)
JamisonM··on Bill C-18: Google to remove news links in Canada over online news law
This newspaper stand argument is really, really bad. The headlines of the physical newspaper on the front page are for the purposes of advertising the newspaper.. and the newspaper stand sells the newspapers - that's a big contribution to the newspaper business!
JamisonM··on Sears offered complete houses in large DIY kits
> edit: I will stand by my comment. Lets see how many 70's and 80s era houses last until 2040.

2040 is only 17 years away! Houses from the 1970's and 1980's are selling for top dollar today in suburbs all over North America, if the expected life spans of those structures were only 17 years they'd be worthless.

Where I am from the late 60's and early 70's homes are the worst quality ones on the markets, really a terrible time for home building. The issues are all foundations, plumbing, and wiring.

JamisonM··on Sears offered complete houses in large DIY kits
Well.. I don't really know. I know that the copper drain plumbing in my house was failing and needed replacing and it was a lot younger than many abs installations in the world that are just fine?

It certainly could be the case that something like spray foam degrades over very long periods of time.. but you'd have to figure the savings from the enhanced insulation value over that period would more that pay for its replacement.

JamisonM··on Sears offered complete houses in large DIY kits
You can't assert this is absolutely false, you have not even in your comment established the criteria to say so.

If "older growth wood is more stable and more likely to resist moisture" it still stands that any wood can perform well in the absence of excess moisture.

I certainly agree that my 120+ year old house made of fir would last much longer with a leaky roof than a house from the 1960's or 1990's with a leaky roof.. but all of those houses would be unfit for occupancy while they deteriorate.

75 years ago is 1957 by my reckoning, you have some example of 75 year old houses deteriorating because of the quality of wood in the absence of moisture penetration?

There is no point in having a structure that is uninhabitable due to moisture penetration that still stands except for the purposes of salvaging it.. which I guess has some value..

My personal opinion is that building built to code today will stand for 100+ years no problem, buildings built in the 70's, 80's and 90's to code in many places will also do so if moisture (Rh) mitigations are reasonably executed (lots of mould & vapour barrier issues in that era). Older houses don't face the moisture issues because they are not as well sealed and as with all structures - keep a good roof on them and they are fine.

Framing wood quality doesn't matter, how fast that wood rots is a question of every other material used in the construction of the envelope.

JamisonM··on FedEx Accused of Largest Odometer Rollback Fraud in History with Used Vans
Auctioneers would simply have a standard practice with respect to disclosure to protect their reputation, not keeping secrets. I know of none that advertise that they use a computer to verify the mileage/hours on equipment - if one did I am sure they would advertise it and be religious about its execution.
JamisonM··on Antarctica gained 600 Gt of ice during '09-'19 vs. a prediction of a 20k Gt loss
What more raw data would you like?
JamisonM··on Off-grid solar brings light, time and income to remotest villages
My Bahasa Indonesia is not strong enough to read that article but it seems to be referencing this:

https://www.ahp.id/brighter-days-ahead-as-indonesias-ministr...

Reading the details is seems like it is still pretty true that there are regulations that don't allow households to sell power back to the grind. There are not regulations forbidding the practice but even with these reforms the practice seems regulated in a way to make it difficult and give the power generation and distribution companies total control:

"Like the previous regime, the New Regulation limits the capacity of the rooftop solar system installed by the customer of such system within the business area of a state-owned entity holding an IUPTLU to 100% of their connected power. However, rooftop solar customers whose systems are connected to other IUPTLU holders besides a state-owned entity may be subject to a different limitation as determined by the relevant IUPTLU holders. These holders must declare their respective limitation on an annual basis.."

My reading of this is that it is now possible for a IUPTLU to allow someone to offset more than 100% of their electricity usage but it is not required for any of them to provide that option, just register the terms with the regulator.

JamisonM··on Some personal news
Calculating the difference between the 538 brand and the Nate Silver brand at the time of acquisition was probably a bit of a toss-up too. Nate can move on to a substack that generates $2MM a year with 4 staff and be happy while Disney runs 538 at a reasonable margin and be happy and I guess everyone is a winner?
JamisonM··on Some personal news
I don't entirely disagree. We know from his public statements that he personally builds the political models. I think he is personally invested in the baseball modelling but we know it is a team effort and 538 is doing a lot. Nate is a media figure, he has to delegate.
JamisonM··on Some personal news
> Why would Disney have agreed to a temporary license, as opposed to a purchase of this critical IP?

It was probably a risk hedge from them.. he would have wanted a lot more for the full enchilada and they didn't know how it would perform in the future. And now his work is not hard to reproduce so it wasn't a bad call. Every political data team I have heard reporting on essentially concedes that whatever they do ends up more-or-less matching 538.. so it is hard to extract surplus value but also easy to hit that mark roughly.

I follow the NHL and there are a lot of models, they disagree in certain details but they largely agree and the "winner" at the end of any given season isn't winning by much.. even private data isn't a big boost.

JamisonM··on Some personal news
I wouldn't presume that most of it is Nate's own work. (I suspect that for most sports he is delegating but "owns" the output, he does seem to directly build most of the political stuff.)

Isn't this what the Skype guys pulled off with Microsoft too?

JamisonM··on Some personal news
> FiveThirtyEight's political forecasts absolutely provide a desirable service—who doesn't want to know who will an upcoming election?

> But is it good for people to know who is more likely to win an election? Are these predictions beneficial to society or democracy?

Two points:

1. The model DO NOT tell you who will win the upcoming election.

2. It is absolutely beneficial to society and democracy, having a poll-free & rigorous-analysis-free democratic society means an environment where even the most apolitical citizen can be bamboozled into thinking that an election was "stolen" simply based on their close associates and news sources. Polling and aggregation, when executed with a modicum of accountability, prevents a devolution into a Soviet-style culture of paranoia particularly among the elites. It has tremendous value, that value will be backfilled by rumour and innuendo and that is very bad for society.

JamisonM··on Microsoft quietly supported legislation to make it easier to fix devices
End of 2025 doesn't seem like too big an issue.
JamisonM··on Microsoft quietly supported legislation to make it easier to fix devices
Does making all those computers still run Windows 10 make them obsolete?
JamisonM··on New York to ban natural gas, including stoves, in new buildings
There are a lot of jurisdictions where piped natural gas is not available and 200 amp service is very common, as a practical matter it is not a big deal.

Requiring new builds to have even more electrical capacity and more robust incoming infrastructure is a win-win-win situation and hopefully that is what code & consumers demand.

JamisonM··on New York to ban natural gas, including stoves, in new buildings
"You can run the blower and electronics of a natural gas furnace or boiler off a little camping generator.."

Likewise for a heat pump, right?

Does this "power out for days after a winter storm" thing actually happen very often? I am from Manitoba and my worst-ever experience was 10-11 hours when it was very, very cold out in 35+ years.

JamisonM··on Moths are more efficient pollinators than bees: new research
> Or am I missing something.

One of the things you may be missing is that the article is about "efficiency" as opposed to total impact.

"researchers found that 83% of insect visits to bramble flowers were made during the day. While the moths made fewer visits during the shorter summer nights, notching up only 15% of the visits, they were able to pollinate the flowers more quickly."

Moths are doing great work, but they don't have much time to do the work in and they are not doing the bulk of the work. Also it seems that the night pollinators actually may largely work different flowers than the day pollinators so one can't necessarily pick up the load left by the absence of the other.

JamisonM··on Why don’t more people live close to friends?
Seems like the obvious answer to this question is just greed and/or ambition, right? The target audience for this article seems to be white collar workers and most professionals can mostly live wherever they want, they just have to accept the pay grade & accommodations that come along with that choice: none of which involve poverty or desperate circumstances.

Anyhoo.. anyone that wants advice about making friends locally my only offering is go volunteer at a local community organization, help run the local community hall or skating rink, you'll meet interesting people with pro-social views. If you find people like that to be around what you find is that being their friends is pretty easy.

JamisonM··on FAA K-12 Airport Design Challenge in Minecraft
That's interesting because if you set that out as a goal.. then what, right? What you'd like is on-going productive use once unlimited access is granted if your goal is balance. My inclination would be to be giving "homework" all the time, so the hours get split up somehow and aren't just spent of frivolous things once the privileges are acquired.
← PreviousPage 2 of 24Next →