859 karma · joined September 9, 2024
The primary purpose of CPF is not a pension scheme. It is structured as a massive forced bond purchase scheme by citizens. Financially what happens is the 37% of citizen income buys a long term bond (till retirement age, on average decades) at rock bottom interest rates (it's pegged to the overnight rate or a minimum of 2.6%). The returns are specifically decoupled from the real long term returns. This has historical roots in the government needing vast capital financing. They make enormous amounts of the delta between the short term interest rate and long term capital gains. Singapore has no oil or natural resources, but it's sovereign wealth fund has AUM in the regions of countries like Norway which do for this reason. It is not a shock absorber like the article suggests. The withdrawal terms are strict - housing, a significant medical expense and retirement are the only real ways to get money out of it.
"Trying to keep people employed" is a goal, not a policy. In fact the Singapore government maintains a large worker supply through immigration. The foreign worker population, ~30%. The main goal of the government is to maximize the absolute number of people working.
The reason it raising the retirement age is effective in workforce participation is because most people have no choice. Retirement only pays out after the age. The working life of an average Singaporean has seen 37% gone to CPF, maybe another 10% to income taxes, another 5% to GST, road tax, property tax, etc. After all this there's the astronomical cost of living. This is also intentional, to raise the number of employees.
It can mean many things, but clearly cannot be mean what revenue is going to be in the future. If Claude doubles revenue every six weeks, by the end of this year they would have a higher revenue than every FAANG company combined (about one trillion).
1. It doesn't train real task performance. There is a spectrum of problems that people solve. On one end it is the recall of randomized facts in a flashcard prompt->answer way. On the other end is task performance, which can be more formally thought of as finding a path through a state space to reach some goal. The prompt->answer end is what SR systems relentlessly drill you at.
2. SR is pretty costly, prompt->answer problems are also low value. If you think about real world scenarios, its unlikely that you will come across a specific prompt->answer question. And if you do, the cost of looking it up is usually low.
3. The structure of knowledge stored is very different (and worse). If you think about high performance on a real world task like programming or theorem proving, you don't recall lists of facts to solve it. There's a lot about state space exploration, utilising principles of the game, leveraging known theorems, and so on.
This is a more descriptive version of the "rote memorization" argument. There's two common counters to this:
1. Learning is memorization. This is strictly true, but the prompt->answer way of learning is a specific kind of memorization. There's a correlation-causation fallacy here - high performers trained in other ways can answer prompts really well, it doesn't mean answering prompts really well means you will becoming high performing.
2. Memorization is a part of high performance, and SR is the optimal way to learn it. This is generally true, but in many cases the memorization part is often very small.
These ideas more accurately predict how SR is only significantly better in specific cases where the value of prompt-answer recall is really high. This is a function of both the cost to failing to remember and the structure of knowledge. So medical exams, where you can't look things up and is tested a lot as prompt->recalls, SR finds a lot of use.
My own guess for the what the next generation of learning systems that will be an order of magnitude more powerful will look like this:
1. Domain specific. You won't have a general system you chuck everything in. Instead you will have systems which are built differently to each task, but on the similar principles (which are explained below).
2. Computation instead of recall - the fundamental unit of "work" will shift from recalling the answer to a prompt to making a move in some state space. This can be taking a step in a proof, making a move in chess, writing a function, etc.
3. Optimise for first principles understanding of the state space. A state space is a massive, often exponential tree. Human minds cannot realistically solve anything in it, if not for our ability to find principles and generalise them to huge swaths of the state space. This is closely related to meta-cognition, you want to be thinking about solving as much has solving specific instances of a task.
4. Engineered for state space exploration - a huge and underdeveloped ability of machines is to help humans track the massive state space explorations, and evaluate and feedback to the user. The most common used form of this is currently git + testing suites. A future learning system could have a git like system to keep track of multiple branches that are possible solutions, and the UX features to evaluate various results of each branch.
2) The study specified dual N back imposes a pretty demanding regiment. It's 12 sessions daily, consecutively for ~month. It takes about 20 minutes each day of intense focus.
3) There's naturally going to be a lot of survivorship bias in reviews. But you could argue it doesn't make your intelligence worse, so there's only net upside.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/mic...
IBM
India openings: 2816
USA openings: 312
https://www.ibm.com/careers/search
Also IBM: CEO Arvind Krishna lays off 8000 workers then rehires
https://dailygalaxy.com/2025/06/ibm-lays-off-8000-employees-...
But it is not a great place for these firms because disposable income is so low. For example, the US generates the most revenue per user for Google because it has a really high income. India is unlikely to make any significant part of tech firms revenue for a long time.