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INGELRII

1,070 karma · joined September 17, 2018

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INGELRII··on Stagnation and Scientific Incentives
Same authors have interesting related papers:

* Neophilia ranking of scientific journals https://www.nber.org/papers/w21579

* Age and the Trying Out Of New Ideas, Journal of Human Capital (2019) https://www.nber.org/papers/w20920 http://www.nature.com/news/young-scientists-lead-the-way-on-...

INGELRII··on Procrastination is about managing emotions, not time
> I for one would feel disgusted with myself if I were to discover that I'm nothing more than the output of a reward function. YMMV.

Very interesting and heavy statement to say in this context.

(I think your comment should be upvoted just to bring this honest description of how feelings and self-image interact with our thinking)

INGELRII··on Procrastination is about managing emotions, not time
As the society advances and problems are solved for us, we are left with the most central core problem, ourselves.

Related to concepts like 'agency', 'impulse control', 'willpower', 'restraint', 'free will', 'delayed gratification' are connected to our status and self image. If you think humans as AI systems, we are facing issues with our reward function. Short term reward seems to overrule long term planning and goals if the outside pressure is not there and we have a choice.

Is this something without technical solution or can we learn to reprogram our reward function with biofeedback, brain implants, meds or application in Apple watch?

I think the subject deserves a Black Mirror episode and few startups.

INGELRII··on Julian Assange “slowly dying” and “often sedated” in Belmarsh prison
In both cases, if you believe in society based on laws, what I said stands. Agreed?
INGELRII··on Julian Assange “slowly dying” and “often sedated” in Belmarsh prison
It's not mutually exclusive.

* Sometimes individuals must break the law for greater good. This is called civil disobedience, or civil resistance.

* Just because one is breaking the law for common good, civil servants can't and should not be expected to stop enforcing the law. If you allow that, it's the end of the rule of law based society. The whole idea of just society is that you restrict what individuals in the government can do.

If you decide that civil disobedience is the way and you break the law, you should not ask to be treated differently under the law. Political pardons exist for a reason.

(I'm not taking position on the legality of actions Assage took, or justification of his actions. I'm arguing general principle.)

INGELRII··on Cybersyn and Allende’s Semi-Automated Luxury Socialism
Cybersyn is great. It highlights the problem of applying cybernetics (systems theory) into a system with many unknowns. Economics as a whole is not a controlled environment like factory where systems theory can be successfully.

More modern approach with more success is mechanism design (reverse game theory). Design games that yield results even when you know very little about the players.

The Nobel Prize: What is mechanism design and why does it matter for policy-making? https://voxeu.org/article/nobel-prize-what-mechanism-design-...

>Mechanism design theory is a major breakthrough in the modern economic analysis of institutions and markets. It revolutionalised the way economists think about optimal institutions and regulation when governments don't “know it all.” It has had a major impact on current policy-making and will continue to do so in the future.

INGELRII··on The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius
Side note about Newton and occult.

Newton was not just a physicist who dabbled with occult. He turned occult into physics.

Before Newton scientists and natural philosophers like Descartes believed that movements were caused by physical contact.

Newton started traditionally and proposed the existence of ether that transmits forces. When he became interested in alchemy, he replaced ether with occult forces that repel and attract each other. Newton received criticism for his theory that gravity was worked through "action at a distance", because that is occult quality. His theory was not seen as physical theory at first, because 'physical theories' at the time were physical in the intuitive common sense meaning. Action at a distance, across a vacuum, was occultism.

Keynes called Newton the last magician. He was able to make similar leap as Einstein did.

INGELRII··on The U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI)
The JQI Curve: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/voxaradev/pages/11297/...

Current Level is 80.62

Change From 1990 Inception is -14.3%

> They recently unveiled the US Private Sector Job Quality Index (or JQI for short), a new monthly indicator that aims to track the quality of jobs instead of just the quantity. The JQI measures the ratio of what the researchers call “high-quality” versus “low-quality” jobs, based on whether the work offer more or less than the average income.

https://qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic...

INGELRII··on The cognitive costs of air pollution
The whole point of IQ is that it tests common factor (as in factor analysis) underlying different tests. There is known correlation between different testing methods.
INGELRII··on The cognitive costs of air pollution
Intelligence researches don't use normalized IQ when they compare intelligence across target populations or across different times.

They use raw IQ score data.

INGELRII··on Completing Racket's relicensing effort
MIT style licenses provide 'snapshot freedom'. The code is a collection of text files at one point of time.

GPL license is additionally a share agreement. If the code is also an valuable asset that requires constant development, update and contributions to stay alive, GPL can help with that.

I would personally would prefer GPL-license under organization that can sell different licenses. If a company don't want to use GPL, they can buy commercial license and developers get money.

INGELRII··on Facebook isn’t free speech, it’s algorithmic amplification optimized for outrage
If printing press in the 15th century is the analogy, we will have Thirty Years' War ahead of us.

Martin Luther was one of the first political troublemakers in the printing press era. He used printed pamphlets to spread his message. His use of language was extremely hateful and vulgar. Martin Luther would have been perfect for Twitter or FB.

...

Martin Luther @MartinLuther

>“A natural donkey, which carries sacks to the mill and eats thistles, can judge you – indeed, all creatures can! For a donkey knows it is a donkey and not a cow. A stone knows it is a stone; water is water, and so on through all the creatures. But you mad asses do not know you are asses.”

Martin Luther @MartinLuther

>“May God punish you, I say, you shameless, barefaced liar, devil’s mouthpiece, who dares to spit out, before God, before all the angels, before the dear sun, before all the world, your devil’s filth.”

Martin Luther @MartinLuther

>For you are an excellent person, as skillful, clever, and versed in Holy Scripture as a cow in a walnut tree or a sow on a harp.”

Martin Luther @MartinLuther

>“You are a crude ass, and an ass you will remain!”

Martin Luther @MartinLuther

>You are desperate, thorough arch-rascals, murderers, traitors, liars, the very scum of all the most evil people on earth. You are full of all the worst devils in hell – full, full, and so full that you can do nothing but vomit, throw, and blow out devils!”

More: http://ergofabulous.org/luther/

INGELRII··on The stockmarket is now run by computers, algorithms and passive managers
> allocate 5% to put options on the losers

How do you do it withing the frame I described the problem (cost effectively and without increasing risk) for relatively small investor?

INGELRII··on Hong Kong protests: President Xi warns of 'bodies smashed'
1989 Tienanmen protests were ignited by the death of pro-reform general secretary Hu Yaobang and the perceived notion that the party had mistreated him.

They were the end of the movement that started with 1986 Chinese student demonstrations demanding academic freedom, freedom of speech and freedom of the press that he associated with the West. General secretary Hu Yaobang was removed because he did not try to crush these demonstrations and demands.

The 1989 demonstrations demanded continued economic reform and liberalization, but he demands escalated. Students wanted guaranteed constitutional freedoms, fight corruption, adopt a press law, and allow the establishment of privately run newspapers (as in liberal democracy)

INGELRII··on The stockmarket is now run by computers, algorithms and passive managers
That what I was thinking too.

I think it could be implemented as SP520 index fund with a low cost swap sold separately against the fund.

INGELRII··on The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2019
Really good choice for two reasons.

1. The research subject is very important.

2. The methodology and experimental design these researchers have developed is really good.

INGELRII··on The stockmarket is now run by computers, algorithms and passive managers
I find it easier to select what companies not to buy. It's hard to do it cost effectively and with low risk. Short selling or put options is not the answer.

Idea for a new fund directed at retail investors:

S&P 520 index fund. It's basically just low cost S&P 500 index fund, except that the index tracks 520 largest companies listed and individual investors can remove any 20 companies from their index. If you don't know what to drop, the fund managers drop the 20 smallest and the index becomes S&P 500.

The catch is how to implement this strategy with low cost. In practice the fund as a whole would take input from every fund owner at the time they do rebalancing. Then they would adjust the ownership of the fund based on how the investor performs relative to the whole fund in the next rebalancing. How to implement this may be tricky.

INGELRII··on The Money Behind The Climate Denial Movement (2013)
There is a great book: "Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming"

Two things to learn from the book:

1) The are same people and organizations behind many science related denials: DDT, tobacco, SDI defenders, acid rain, ozone hole, and climate change denial are linked to same group of people. They try to "maintain the controversy" and "keep the debate alive".

2) The usual suspects don't do this just for the money. Sure, they take money from business sponsors, but the merchants of doubt themselves are not purely cynical operatives and money grabbers. There is type of Manichaean paranoia and ideology behind it. It's related to cold war mentality and free market fundamentalism.

George C. Marshall Institute (GMI) was one of the centers of this ideology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_C._Marshall_Institute

INGELRII··on Facebook to Exempt Opinion and Satire from Fact-Checking
Satire is effective influencing method. The additional benefit is avoiding the requirement for reliability and responsibility because it's not real journalism.

In the US The Daily Show established satirical ha-ha as effective method to deliver news and discuss politics for younger generations.

It started as pure satire but turned into real institution people used to learn about the world. The spinoffs like The Colbert Report and related shows from people who worked in the show is impressive: The Late Late Show with Craig Kilborn , Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Full Frontal with Samantha Bee, The Break with Michelle Wolf and Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj all continue using similar framework.

In the right the effective satire seems to come mainly in the form of internet trolls. It's more hostile, less intellectual. It's for people who see hostility as funny. Despite being very crude, this kind of satire can have huge influence.

INGELRII··on Stu Ungar
Most top players today are like athletes. They eat, exercise, and study the game like pros. Being a sick drug addict and winning tournaments was just raw ability.

The level of the game was lower at the time. Ungar would be high level player even today's standards, but his game would not look as spectacular.

INGELRII··on Great apes appear to have “theory of mind”
Robert D. Hare (known for Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised PCL-R) has described psychopath as intraspecies predators. Psychopaths relation to other humans is similar to how humans relation to other animals. Humans have pets they like, but they still put down or abandon their best friend if something else comes along.

If you reverse this line of thought, we are psychopaths in our relation to animals. Our relation to animals is selfish, callous, and remorseless use (interpersonal-affective factor) and chronically unstable and antisocial lifestyle in or relation to pets (social deviance factor).

Humans have also tendency to act like predators towards our outgroup. Maybe this ability selfish, callous, and remorseless behavior is important part of being a human.

INGELRII··on Consciousness Doesn’t Depend on Language
Cognitive scientists sometimes use term nonconsious as instead of unconscious.

The concept of unconscious is not controversial. We simply don't observe much of our own actions or body to be aware enough to make decisions. Most of our cognitive processing is non-conscious. Toughs just pop into our consciousness seemingly from nowhere but are somehow relevant to the task. We can walk and drive around without paying attention while listening radio or podcast. Learning new tasks require more conscious processing. When we have learned stuff it can happen without us paying any attention to the details.

INGELRII··on Consciousness Doesn’t Depend on Language
I said that sign language has linguistic structure so it's language.

Proper language requires this structure, just making sings is not automatically language. Just the ability to signal using single atomic words, in some medium (signs, verbal, written, machine) is not a language.

INGELRII··on Consciousness Doesn’t Depend on Language
My understanding of what 'language' means to cognitive scientists. You may have use different meaning for the language.

Only when you use semantic and syntactic structures to connect symbols into more complex meaning you are using language.

INGELRII··on Consciousness Doesn’t Depend on Language
Why you can't program computers to "be" requires explanation. Maybe someone who has read the book can comment.

I'm sympathetic towards "consciousness is about being" idea. I don't see why consciousness requires conscious thinking, much less language. When you sip coffee in the morning looking trough window, you are just experiencing while staying alert. All decisions and cognition is unconscious, yet the level of consciousness is not diminished.

When we are just "being" we are still doing active cognitive processing and reacting, but the process is not conscious, yet the conscious awareness of being is still there.

(concepts like being, awareness, consciousness, experiencing would require better definition in this context)

INGELRII··on Consciousness Doesn’t Depend on Language
Sign language has linguistic structure. Vocalizations or signs that are composed of simple symbols are not language.
INGELRII··on Cormac McCarthy on how to write a science paper
> And don’t worry too much about readers who want to find a way to argue about every tangential point and list all possible qualifications for every statement. Just enjoy writing.

Trying to defend against bad reading is impossible and trying to do so in original article is useless.

Bad reading is huge problem for social media and internet forums. Bad readers are likely to be the first to comment article in the internet forums and comment sections. They destroy discussion.

INGELRII··on Neglected Risks, Financial Innovation, and Financial Fragility (2011) [pdf]
>Abstract

>We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

INGELRII··on Gombe Chimpanzee War
Men who beat their wife daily are not majority in any culture.

You can walk into a village or bar full of strangers and you don't automatically get into a fights. You don't have to maintain your position with constant violence.

I doubt there is human culture where average adult gets into violent confrontation for status monthly.

INGELRII··on Gombe Chimpanzee War
Chimp and humans have similar levels of outgroup violence, but human ingroup violence is much lower. In wild chimpanzee groups violence or threats of violence are daily occurrence Young chimp males start to beat weakest females daily when they grow enough.
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