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HerbManic

792 karma · joined February 23, 2026

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HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
It isn't just about getting it above 2.0, it is having those people in the work force. Even if you could magic up enough babies today, it would be about 20 years until they would be actively offsetting the issue. The is why demographic issues are so insidious. The problems that keep birth rates down today, end up amplifying these issues in the future further suppressing them. Eventually you hit equilibrium but it is a long way down until you get there.
HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
Yep, there is a lot of evidence that says even nomadic tribes heavily intermingled with others because it was seen as a means of building resilience for all.
HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
I was going to say, Japans history is one that was very... combative. They fought amongst themselves heavily for a long time.
HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
Eventually that will be the case but it just takes decades of the demographic bubble to work its way through.
HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
And there are the increasing infertility rates as well to hamper the efforts.

Personally, I would love to have a few kids but after many years of trying and all manner of treatments we have gotten nowhere at all. But that is just how if falls I guess.

HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
This touches on a core part of this. Don't think about it from a money point of view but form a labor/time point of view.

There is just not enough labor/time for people to have kids and also sustain the elderly that can no longer contribute to the same degree.

HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
I suspect this is why China is going in so hard of humanoid robots over the last few years. They have seen a potential future in Japan and are now trying to avoid this at all costs. It is big long term bet but we will know if it worked in about 20-40 years.
HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
The unfortunate flip side of this is that when you bring in a lot of immigrants, it can keep a lot of markets pumped up far beyond what the markets would usually dictate.

Here in Australia, we tipped below replacement rate in 1976 and it has never recovered, we just increase immigration to cover the gap. Culturally this has been brilliant but economically it has made some oddities in that housing is through the roof as there is far more customers for it than their would have been otherwise. But it does provide a lot of younger workers that manage to keep the pension system going and the demand on that system is only going to grow for decades to come.

The alternative is that you restrict immigration and we end up in the Japan position. A crumbling pension system and a lack of people to keep ever maintenance up of a lot of infrastructure and sheer labor availability.

I have wondered that as this situation grows globally, what happens when a lot of nations that have typically had a lot of emigration end up shutting the tap off as yhey feel they need their people more in their country? They can starve others of immigrants and potentially become a large political tool in decades to come. Interesting times ahead.

It is the difference between a solution and a predicament. A solution fixes the issue, a predicament has only response merely that try to take the least bad path down. This looks like a predicament.

I do fear for the younger folks, the kids and a generation or two afterwards nowadays as they are going to end up lumped with this mess. But after that things should settle down into a new stable phase. This isn't the end of civilizations it is just a re-calibration, it just take generations to occur.

HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
I suspect part of the problem is that people are worked hard and don't really have a vision of the future that they are actively building towards as a nation. Hard work alone doesn't dissuade people from having kids but not having a positive or even constant future target combined with that can cause folks to just give up on that kind of aspiration.

This is an issue that develops over decades and places like Japan, South Korea and potentially China, this is already baked in to the point that it is unstoppable. The same is coming to many other nations over the coming decades.

HerbManic··on What happens if Japan takes in zero immigrants?
I do find it funny that some folks treat this is like the complete end of Japan (or whatever) nation, like you said a straight line down. But eventually it will bottom out and potentially rebound a bit. It find on the way up or at the top, and it will be fine at the bottom once the trends return but the issue really is the pain of the phase shift.
HerbManic··on SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P
That is a part of it.

Think of it like security backed bonds, if you bundle a lot of dud businesses into a single business that is doing ok then as an aggregate it looks fine. So bundling Twitter and xAi into SpaceX covers up that. This is why I suspect they will eventually merge Tesla into SpaceX as it is on the decline now.

The problem is that with the current cash on hand and large loans coming due, they only have a 6 month runway. Thus the IPO to get other peoples money to hopefully fund themselves until solvent.

All IPO's are essentially that, people invest in your business, the business uses their money to achieve more, and if it all works out then future profits can eventually be paid back to investors.

HerbManic··on SpaceX, Other Mega IPOs Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P
Not OP but I will weigh in. The numbers for SpaceX were not looking great, they are burning cash faster than Starship crashing into the Indian ocean. The idea was that with a fast indexing, this would be mostly irrelevant as retirement funds would automatically buy into the IPO after 15 days thus bolstering the company before any sanity would prevail on the markets.

Now that they have to wait a year for that point, that cash burn is going to work against them fairly heavily. There is also something like $20 billion of debt they have to pay back in the next 12 months that might not be covered over so easily now.

That said, SpaceX and a lot of Elons companies have had figures that look terrible for ages, and yet they keep manage to pull rabbits out of the hat. So who knows. Maybe they sell a bunch of assets, they have more than enough to cover the gap.

HerbManic··on Wind and solar generated more power than gas globally in April 2026
That and the excess amount of farming just to feed cows for beef.

Credit to our current system, if there was a need to cut back, we have a lot of easy cuts to gain some wiggle room.

HerbManic··on Wind and solar generated more power than gas globally in April 2026
Accountants call them 'externalities'. Things they can take off the books if they treat the atmosphere like an open air sewer system.
HerbManic··on Wind and solar generated more power than gas globally in April 2026
For years, maybe 20 now, I have seen a few people that seem reputable in terms of their positions and data they project that says that we should not have as many solar panels as we do. It is restrictions on rare materials etc. Some of them are probably paid to have this position, others seem genuine.

And yet, look at what is happening. Year after year the exponential growth continues without a blip! It is one of those things that looked impossible initially but obvious in retrospect.

My broader long term fear is that if we essentially get "limitless" energy, we continue to harm the ecosystem in other ways. Like giving a drug addict a limitless bank account. But we are still a long way from that point.

HerbManic··on CT scans of BYD car parts
Ha, yeah that is a fair point.
HerbManic··on CT scans of BYD car parts
I know, they are up to the POWER 11 spec now. It is the definition of a brilliant architecture that was simply out run by others (x86) that could push their mediocre setups far better than they could.
HerbManic··on PlayStation Architecture
Yeah that 4KB also had to hold the MIP maps as well, effectively halving that down to 2KB for the full size and then 2KB for all the down scaled pieces.

Ps1 also only had a 4KB cache but it could also dynamically manage it for larger textures but that came with a large performance penalty.

The blur on N64 was a combination of that and small cartridge size. It graphics setup did have some advantages, look at Mario 64 for example. The hills in the distance are usually just a few polygons with some low resolution textures stretched over them. The filtering and perspective correction means it is a very consistent image, you would not be able to do that on PS1 without it becoming a visual mess.

PS1 affine rendering was fast but limited, which for the release window was good enough.

HerbManic··on PlayStation Architecture
John Carmack once said something like, if you cannot get your game out with the vision you want on a PS3/360 then you are doing something wrong.

That isnt to say that technology hasn't improved (duh!) Just that at that point there was enough grunt and memory that you could approximate what you want without massive compromise.

I still think this is true. But we will take the extra capabilities while we are here.

HerbManic··on CT scans of BYD car parts
I am still amazed that IBM is pushing their POWER processors forwards for things like their System Z Mainframes. From what I have heard they are still really fast with I/O and general shifting of data but I'm not sure how much better than is than the alternatives.

Wouldn't be surprised if that finally gets sunset in the next few years.

HerbManic··on CT scans of BYD car parts
I agree with the quality of some of the stuff coming out of China but when it comes to poisons and risking the lives of citizens, I have some bad news for you. That is how they undercut so heavily by foregoing those standards.
HerbManic··on CT scans of BYD car parts
I have had a fairly good run with a lot of these Chinese phones. Huawei when we could still get them was great. Xiaomi is great build quality but they are rotting out their OS with too much bloat and up sell. Oppo has been brilliant in that they are built well, cheap and allow you strip out anything you don't want.
HerbManic··on Loading Sega Games Off a Vinyl Record [video]
Might be the peak of "We did it just because it is so stupid." Bravo!
HerbManic··on Are blue zones real? Answering that question is harder then ever
It was writer Bill Porter who said it best "The single best thing to increase longevity is to reduce stress.". This was in response to an anecdotal observation that a lot of Chinese hermits that lived in the mountains had exceptional life spans.

I mean they are fairly active, eat fairly lean meals and don't have much constant stress, so they are ideal conditions for longevity.

HerbManic··on Are blue zones real? Answering that question is harder then ever
Alas, the easiest advice is the hardest to follow short term but the best to do long term.
HerbManic··on Are blue zones real? Answering that question is harder then ever
It is just good advice. I follow this fairly closely, not so much for life span (although that would be nice) but simply for health span.

Knowing my luck some hyper cancer will just come out from somewhere and take me out in a few weeks or I just slip down the stairs one day. But I try to sway the odds.

HerbManic··on Age verification for social media, the beginning of the end for a free internet?
It is similar to what Frank Zappa proposed when they were looking at age restrictions on records. He said, they should have the lyrics printed up so parents could decide if their kids should assess it. A decent moderate response.

Alas, the age restrictions came in and the big warning on the front covers was added. It did kind of backfire because that warning started to become a badge of quality to younger people. A similar thing could happen here. If you restrict it then it becomes the forbidden fruit.

HerbManic··on Age verification for social media, the beginning of the end for a free internet?
It was funny here in Australia, they did it the other way. They banned social media for under 16 but didn't get around to porn until a few months later.
HerbManic··on Age verification for social media, the beginning of the end for a free internet?
In a way it is the bad players that are ruining it. Yeah I can setup all manner of servers for this stuff, but the instant I miss a patch or a patch is late to be developed and you can be compromised in no time. And unfortunately it just becomes a game of endurance between you and the army of folks trying to crack systems open.

I have said it for decades, if there weren't bad players then we wouldn't need any of this security. That is a very utopian idea.

I have thought that a way to put people off is to have such an anaemic server that they wouldn't bother. Like a tiny RiscV board running Haiku that delivers basic HTML and email. There is little incentive to raid that thing. I haven't thought this idea through much however.

HerbManic··on Age verification for social media, the beginning of the end for a free internet?
Global village can just be code for Tower of Babel. It was knocked down for a reason.
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