HFguy

There are yearly policies you can get if you just rent cars. GEICO has them for example

"That's why almost all European/Japanese brand cars are 30+ years old over there"

This is just completely incorrect. Most of European and Japanese cars are not 30+ years old in the US.

Love that!!!

Those are particular people. Not the US government's actual policy.

But how practical is this? If the next village over is planning on attacking your village. Is creating a weapon for defense still "treason against humanity"?

Navy thought the same thing. And they already have this (e.g., mine that has a torpedo).

A version of this already exists (for awhile). It is a mine that sits at the bottom of the ocean and then launches a torpedo.

Looks like a Fallout Vault

These facilities were not cheap to design and build. Obsolete now.

There is a similar but different product (without the downside protection).

A fund manager can replicate the index with derivatives and overlay their alpha on top of it.

Google “alpha overlay” or “portable alpha” for more info.

These types of products were more popular about 10-15 years ago.

Firms typically charge just for the alpha for these strategies.

You are asking for the manager to sell you an option.

SP500 had not returned 10% a year historically. And really would want to look at returns above the cash rate.

And the SP500 has had unusually good performance relative to other equity indexes. Would not count on that forever.

You would make money because the other tools in use at the time were much worse and people were pricing options poorly. So plenty of opportunities. Hence why Ed thorp did well.

It will not work today. For starters, it makes a bunch of simplifying assumptions. And there are better models. It also misses a number of important dynamics.

I don't think this has to be incorrect. Or that your "unless the age distribution...." needs to be true either.

Everyone eventually dies. When that happens, as things currently stand, it will be a 2.5% chance the cause will be the flu.

You might die young or old. Across those possibilities, it is 2.5%

That can be consistent with the idea that if you were to die next year, it probably (i.e., much less than 2.5%) won't be the flu because you are a young person.

"I have my fingers crossed that they can learn to target yachts specifically."

"Yachts" here look like moderately sized sail boats. Doesn't look like this is rich people's super yachts if that is what you are getting at.

This is good work. Are there examples of sites that have used your library? There weren't any links on your website.

Or he didn't die and is off hiding somewhere.

Also, reasonable chance this entire story is fabricated and this was done a different way.

Aegis is a particular system. Not a generic term for these systems. I don't believe UK ships used it.

I would put aside statistics and whether we completely understand how the economy works (we don't).

Just ask...are there are very fundamental differences between the finances of an individual and the government? There are. For starters, the government can simply print money and pay off debts. They can also choose, by their actions, to inflate away nominal liabilities.

So then it is reasonable to consider that "being in debt" may have different ramifications for the government than for an individual.

Stanford is a big place. Would not disregard all the work from anyone connected just because of something the president did.

What’s the name of the firm?

They are mostly not where people want to live

"Purely conjecture, but somehow I suspect that private equity has crunched the numbers and decided it's time to milk this one dry."

They are a public company at this point. Not a fan of PE but no need to blame them for everything.

"every generation does not need to learn the ravages of war."

Would not be so sure of that. I suspect the "great generation" has a lot better understanding about the value of peace than more recent generations.

It would likely only work if the instrument being invested in was small and illiquid (i.e., that pumping it up would actually move the price). Otherwise it would be a waste of time.

I've really only heard of this in penny stocks which are illiquid.

This would not work in liquid markets like rates, fx or equity indexes.

I'm pretty sure this isn't true regarding gold. I.e., that some firm has a lot it wants to dump and then spends money convincing people to invest in gold.

Gold is liquid, and the vast majority of it is not held for investment purposes. That is, even if you convinced some people to invest in it, it would not matter much regarding the price.

And consider the costs involved in getting people to actually consider and then act on this recommendation?

But if you have a reference link that refutes this, please provide it.

Why this is right? You just responded with a list of their product lines?

Good thinking!!!

Dell???

Agree on Intel, MS, Boeing. And there are others.

But how is Dell strategic?

While paper is paywalled, it doesn’t sound that sophisticated.

The blurb mentions the prediction requires a couple of measurements that aren’t usually taken like stomach and waist circumference.

From my experience with building models (in other domains), the key to break through is very often new data that previously wasn’t considered as it wasn’t easily available.

“When early detection occurs, patients can take additional steps to help prevent cancer.”

Blurb doesn’t say what those are. Paper is paywalled.

The extra data points as inputs into the prediction are things like waist and stomach measurement. So suspect one thing is weight loss.

Disagree. I’m exMck too. Whether senior person wrote it is irrelevant. Just ask whether it is good or bad advice. Lots of smart mid-level people (and some not so smart). And some senior people really good and some are not. My view is it is all about the particular person.

I’ve since been responsible for tech teams as leader of larger businesses.

My take is it seems basic but sensible.