5,469 karma · joined March 12, 2013
The reason more CEOs getting shot might make a difference is that many CEOs care about status and being able to mention it in the right places. Historically many people love it so much that they call themselves CEOs and Presidents of companies that are small businesses.
If these same people can no longer be open about their role and status, which they value, there will be some kind of change. I'm not sure what it is, but security guards don't restore their freedom to feel thoughtless about their role and lifestyle.
Whereas with taxes... Maybe some people brag about dodging them or their suspect filings that get them big refunds. But they're mostly not public and not tied to identity the same way. And even the wealth tax isn't remotely the same as the public being vocal at large.
For it to be comparable we'd have to have modern highwaymen and Robin Hoods somehow stripping the wealth, not the tax man.
Because the weight of any changes or perceived need to change come from the social burden that public violence would create in the shooting case.
And that doesn't seem to exist near at all with the wealth tax.
But this doesn't seem likely to translate well to pharmacy, where there will be consequences for treating customers like vermin, as opposed to actual incentives to do it.
I wouldn't be shocked if the tech needed in places like pharmacy or other sectors where there's some level forced responsibility leads to the version that's actually palatable elsewhere.
Edit: and with prediction markets you don't own anything. Even with commodity futures you can end up having to take possession of cows or something.
But it also reminds me that prediction markets are one of those things that are transparently a terrible idea because they create problematic incentives, and not just because people ruin their lives gambling. If you can make $1 million by triggering something that or getting somebody to trigger something that basically has no business happening, whether it's stripping on the Senate floor, causing a volcano to erupt, or crops yields to reduce by secret herbicide dusting, or any other bologna, somebody will do it if the balance makes it worthwhile. Likewise, they give people reasons to vote that are negative - "I have $100 on prop XYZ passing, of course I support it." (Though side note: the ubiquity of betting being super terrible for society because people can't handle gambling at all is one of those things that I've been super surprised by that seems to have good evidence now. I guess because gambling mostly just doesn't do it for me to the degree that I find it shocking just how addictive it is and just how much it exacerbates bad situations for many people.)
And I can't see how there's any benefit that's bigger than the problems. If prediction markets are better than Nate Silver, why is it worth all the problems to society for that extra accuracy margin? I can see why individual actors might find value, but I don't see how their value accrues to society in any way that makes it worth it.
It presented some things I didn't know - I thought all H1Bs had to be advertised to US applicants, but it was just done in places nobody sees and applicants ignored, while this says most places don't even need to do that, for example.
But I also think its timelines of things in India seemed sort of perfunctory and repetitive.
As a tangent, I've long thought that the counterintuitive easy fix for some of the problems with these visas is to convert them to green cards faster (maybe 18 months?) as that should instantly help undo wage suppression pressures.
Just to throw out a random example - could technology, in terms of advances and improvements to allocation, distribution, and consumption, play a part in solving the western US's water issues? Probably. But would it be something that make a trillion dollars and a household name? Maybe not. And could saner policy, like making farmers have to bid for acre feet instead of getting it for basically free + distribution cost also help? Sure.
Likewise, even with AI most software is still crap. Like when have you heard about a doctor who loves their EHR? Like never.
So I think technology could be a solver of at least a lot more things. But we've created a market where people want to exhaust every flavor of flim flam and trend of the moment first. Because we've glorified the business of tech more than the actual improvements and aspirations that should be possible.
On one hand SpaceX and Starlink are businesses that it's practically embarrassing that seemingly nobody else even tried to build. You look into it and look at Bezos and Blue Origin and wonder if the markets can actually build new businesses anymore.
Then you set them aside and realize that he basically got away with visa fraud because he was wealthy to begin with and lucked into making tons of money off PayPal and didn't even found Tesla...
...and the lesson I take away isn't that there's anything special about Musk. It's that if you have billions of dollars almost anybody with some kind of preoccupation can build giant businesses related to it.
For example, I totally believe if some random geek obsessed with SeaQuest had been part of the PayPal Mafia they could have figured out a way to make a billion dollar business out of underwater habitats and submarines.
...at least if they were crazed in public enough about it, which seems to have turned into a key part of how Musk works at some point.
Kind of like if you have a lot of money and a few obsessions you now get ahead more by having Tom Cruise couch hopping moments than by being an actual Howard Hughes or Hearst.
Separately we obviously really shouldn't be letting companies with such concentrated ownership be publicly traded with these multi-class shares, but I guess that's where we are now: reinventing feudalism in market trappings.
"Earning" is a subtle word with a variety of usages. One usage is limited to wages or return on labor or effort, and in that sense can refer to anything where a reward is due and proportionate to an effort, like a treat after a hard workout, buying a car after saving for years, or wages. Another usage focuses on profit. When AOC talks in the zone of this first sense, it should be understood that there is only an implied fair reward for sweat and tears, and that past a certain point it's really entirely unrelated to wages or effort.