You assume that the people who are at the top of the organizations generating said wealth will have any incentive to do that. Look around the world at the petro states for examples of a highly capital intensive industry generating money that subsidizes the rest of the economy.
The problem is, it’s not like being a pm or manager, the people you work with generally aren’t pathological liars with severe amnesia. The anxiety you feel is because there is a system that is very difficult to control reliably injecting entropy into a system which your paycheck depends on your ability to make it stable and ideally provably correct, that should make you feel anxious.
But the people who want to do local inference are putting some amount of value on privacy that’s not captured by the raw monetary value so just comparing the price is somewhat beside the point, it’s also true that, if you have eg a Mac and you use that as your main computing device then you would have spent money on it anyway, so you can’t even really compare its value to spend on something that’s not general purpose.
It’s shocking how close this feels to claude, obviously it's much slower, but I don’t know that it’s significantly dumber. Interestingly the imatrix quantization seems to be better than whatever quant the zdr inference backends on open router are using. It was self aware enough yesterday to realize that it’s own server process was itself without me telling it, which is not something I’ve ever observed a local model doing before.
Sure, ETA for a nuclear power plant is ~15-20 years from now, wind is ~5-10, solar is 2-6, natural gas is 2-4 years. Data centers take 18 - 24 months. Even if build out for power infrastructure needed had started when the demand became apparent (which, it’s not clear that it has done). You should still expect electricity costs to inflate due to the ~100GW of additional demand that has been announced, because there is no way to build the power infrastructure in less time than it takes to build the additional data centers. It’s also not clear that there would be enough elasticity in the supply chain for building any of these generation methods that you even could strike ground on increasing us electricity production by the ~10% needed over the given time frame. The reality is, there is no way to build all the additional data centers without significant inflationary pressure, that will be borne by everyone except the well connected hyperscalers with excellent lobbyists unless average people actually realize that fact and force their dealing with the relevant municipalities and grid operators to be transparent.
Sure, but, given that, does it not seem like the conclusion is: if you have something that could in principle be reverse engineered by a competitor with more compute, they can and will steal it, because the only constraint is roi.
Because those are very capital intensive and don’t skew towards germanys existing competitive advantage in diesel engines and high precision heavy engineering. Same reason most places don’t try to compete, it’s cost prohibitive to do so.
tiananmen square was in 1989. Hong Kong was snuffed out like a light. Covid saw people caged and sealed in their houses. You do not need to look back at the cultural revolution to see the prc for what it is.
There is not ‘must’ here, they did not ‘have’ to undercut every other strategically and technologically important industry the rest of the world has, but they did as a point of national policy.
yes, they want to win the same way they won more or less every other economic competition in the last 30 years, scale out, drop prices and asphyxiate the competition.
But if you have a tiered cache, then waiting several seconds / minutes is still preferable to getting a cache miss. I suspect the larger problem is the amount of tinkering they are doing with the model makes that not viable.
From a utility perspective using a tiered cache with some much higher latency storage option for up to n hours would be very useful for me to prevent that l1 cache miss.
I mean, this is straight out of chinas playbook, it should not be surprising that China is making an inferior derivative product at an artificially lower price point: state subsidies to massively drive up internal scale and supply chains leading to artificially lower priced goods which then suffocate the competition has lead to *gestures vaguely at everything* being made in china.