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ClayShentrup

220 karma · joined August 15, 2014

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ClayShentrup··on Lottocracy: Democracy Without Elections
election by jury is better. elections aren't the problem — uninformed voters are the problem. especially if the turnout is statistically demographically biased (older, whiter, wealthier, more conservative, etc.)

https://www.electionbyjury.org/

ClayShentrup··on Warren Buffett steps down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO after six decades
legend. no words.
ClayShentrup··on Show HN: Does Information Density Cause Time Dilation?
there's no such thing as information.
ClayShentrup··on Even in a Populist Moment, Democrats Are Split on the Problem of Corporate Power
yeah. https://asitoughttobemagazine.com/2010/07/18/score-voting/
ClayShentrup··on Even in a Populist Moment, Democrats Are Split on the Problem of Corporate Power
nope. you need approval voting. https://asitoughttobemagazine.com/2010/07/18/score-voting/
ClayShentrup··on The efficiency of truth: introducing the jot
The Watt-hour is a "UI hack" that hides the conflict between base-10 math and base-60 time. It forces us to multiply a rate (Watts) by time to get energy, only to divide back by time to understand flow.

I propose a unit shift to align physics with human scheduling: The Jot (Jt ), defined as 1 Joule/hour.

It shifts the awkward math (1 hr=3600 s) out of the usage calculation and onto the device rating.

    Conversion: 1 Watt = 3.6 kiloJots (kJt ).

    Usage Math: A 50 kJt  bulb running for 10 hours uses exactly 500 kJ. No conversion factors.

    Battery Math: Capacity (Joules) / Rate (Jots) = Time (Hours). Pure integer division.
This post argues for killing the Watt-hour, measuring energy in Petajoules, and measuring power in Jots.
ClayShentrup··on Thoughts on Go vs. Rust vs. Zig
mutable pointers to immutable data is the ticket.
ClayShentrup··on Thoughts on Go vs. Rust vs. Zig
it's the classic Rich hickey talk. simple made easy.
ClayShentrup··on How good engineers write bad code at big companies
have you ever worked with pivotal Labs? One of my biggest faults I guess is that I worked with femme and they have such an incredibly high bar for understanding, design patterns and cyclomatic complexity and solid and test driven development principles and so forth that once you've worked with them, anywhere else you go is going to feel like a dumpster fire. so then you'll just pull your hair out thinking everyone's an idiot, even if it's really just a lot of bad incentives.
ClayShentrup··on How good engineers write bad code at big companies
oh man, as a veteran of cruise this hits hard. thinking back to all the astonishingly dumb code I tried to refactor to do the right thing, and just get no recognition for it. politics > proficiency
ClayShentrup··on Direct File won't happen in 2026, IRS tells states
it's mathematically proven that all ranked methods can fail IIA. see arrow's theorem.

> Isn't this due to defining "performance" in a way that is congruent with Approval (/ Score)

1. i did not define performance in a way that is congruent with approval/score. scores are not utilities. they are the modification of utilities via ignorance, normalization, and strategy.

2. that the correct social welfare function is just the sum of all voter utilities (the definition of "performance") is mathematically proven. https://www.rangevoting.org/UtilFoundns

> do I Approve my latent terrible party or not?

this is not a "problem". it's well understood. https://www.rangevoting.org/RVstrat6

approval voting obliterates IRV ("RCV") with any mixture of strategic or honest voters, so i'm not sure why you're bringing up strategy. https://www.rangevoting.org/StratHonMix

ClayShentrup··on Direct File won't happen in 2026, IRS tells states
i had a chance to visit arrow at his palo alto condo circa 2014. his theorem is nice and all, but it only makes sense to apply it to social welfare functions, not voting methods. yes, the correct social welfare function is just the utilitarian sum of all voters' individual utilities.

https://www.rangevoting.org/UtilFoundns

once you know that, that's the function you use in your VSE metrics. then the performance of the voting method is measurable without having to think about any specific criteria.

https://www.rangevoting.org/PropDiatribe

ClayShentrup··on Direct File won't happen in 2026, IRS tells states
> it seems like Approval voting just moves the spoiler effect into how people vote

that's orthogonal. ranked voting methods already have (arguably more severe) response to strategic voting AND ALSO can fail IIA even with no strategy applied, just by changing an irrelevant alternative.

> Personally I think the possibilities of circular ties under Ranked Pairs is oversold.

what does that even mean? we have VSE figures that measure the combined effect of all failures, including when the Condorcet winner isn't the favorite candidate of the electorate (not the social utility maximizer). https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/vse-graph.html

that's not under or oversold, it's just measured performance.

ClayShentrup··on Solar energy is now the cheapest source of power, study
of course they are. market forces are what you want for everything. granted, you may want to internalize a negative externality like the climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions, but that's literally correcting market forces.
ClayShentrup··on Charlie Kirk killed at event in Utah
approval voting helps but IRV is actually fairly pro-extremist.

https://www.rangevoting.org/IrvExtreme

ClayShentrup··on AGI is an engineering problem, not a model training problem
consciousness has to be fundamental.
ClayShentrup··on Why random selection is necessary to create stable meritocratic institutions
sortition is a more general concept.
ClayShentrup··on Why random selection is necessary to create stable meritocratic institutions
www.ElectionByJury.org
ClayShentrup··on OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D
this is a fallacy my team has been talking about for 20 years.

https://www.rangevoting.org/IRVsplitExec.html

tl;dr IRV is extremely poor, doesn't actually solve the vote splitting problem, and is radically more complex and cumbersome than superior alternatives like approval voting, which would plausibly scale far faster once gotten off the ground. plus approval voting was adopted by 2/3 majorities in fargo and st louis, so we know it's politically viable.

ClayShentrup··on OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D
no it's not a good point, it's the complete opposite of reality.

http://scorevoting.net/StratHonMix

ClayShentrup··on OBBB signed: Reinstates immediate expensing for U.S.-based R&D
it's utterly the opposite of that.

http://scorevoting.net/StratHonMix

ClayShentrup··on Proton threatens to quit Switzerland over new surveillance law
> an intermediate score is not an optimal way to hedge

1. of course it is, if you're not mathematically savvy.

https://www.rangevoting.org/RVstrat6

2. a lot of people will do it REGARDLESS of whether it's rational, just like people donate to charity. so YOU as a rational self-interested voter BENEFIT by using a voting method which allows you to receive utility donations from those altruistic voters, however irrational they may be. and that leads to a greater NET utility, because voting isn't a zero sum game. https://www.rangevoting.org/ShExpRes

again, it would really help you to just spend a few minutes reading elementary voting theory before going off on such a wild misguided tangent like this.

ClayShentrup··on Proton threatens to quit Switzerland over new surveillance law
> My strategy does not change other voters' strategies.

of course it does. this is basic game theory. but the point is, at some level of iterating on what other voters will do, you arrive at an effectively static "wave function" of possibilities, so you can behave as if you have constant fixed win probabilities for the other candidates, and vote accordingly.

just use VSE results.

https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/vse-graph.html

ClayShentrup··on Proton threatens to quit Switzerland over new surveillance law
just look at the VSE figures.

https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/vse-graph.html

ClayShentrup··on Proton threatens to quit Switzerland over new surveillance law
yeah this is all explained here. score voting is even better than approval voting, obviously.

http://scorevoting.net/RVstrat6

https://www.rangevoting.org/ShExpRes

ClayShentrup··on Proton threatens to quit Switzerland over new surveillance law
tactical error is GOOD, because it donates more utility to society than that non-strategic voter loses. AND for a lot of not-so-math-savvy voters, an honest score ballot is actually a better vote than a botched attempt to use strategic approval thresholds.

http://scorevoting.net/RVstrat6

https://www.rangevoting.org/ShExpRes

> It is never correct to assign a score between the minimum and the maximum, so why allow it in the first place?

it would help you to spend at least 30 seconds researching a complex field like voting methods before asking a deeply misguided question like this.

ClayShentrup··on Proton threatens to quit Switzerland over new surveillance law
approval voting is extremely good. https://electionscience.github.io/vse-sim/vse-graph.html
ClayShentrup··on We Should Let a Lottery Decide Our Government (2019)
Yes!!

https://www.electionbyjury.org/manifesto

ClayShentrup··on Trump's NIH axed research grants even after a judge blocked the cuts
score voting is the key.

https://asitoughttobemagazine.com/2010/07/18/score-voting/

ClayShentrup··on Ask HN: Who is hiring? (May 2025)
Incredibly cool to see Apple doing this. I had a great time doing pair programming with pivotal Labs on a rails app back in 2010 to 2011. Completely changed my worldview. And Rust is a super exciting language.
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