14,074 karma · joined May 6, 2012
If whoever happens to need the technology first is almost certain to invent it, it's not worth $6B. The idea behind patents is supposed to be disclosing things that people wouldn't otherwise come up with on their own.
Not saying that's true here, but it's certainly true for a lot of patents. (Variable-speed windshield wipers deserved a government-enforced monopoly? Really?)
So while making an oscillator steerable inevitably increases its phase noise slightly, the increase is either ignorable in practice or cancelled by the control loop itself.
Lasers, on the other hand, have to be frequency-stabilized for use in high-quality Rb clocks. Every time someone has tried to use an unstabilized laser to replace an Rb lamp, the results have been worse in one way or another.
Usually stabilization involves a separate loop with an Rb gas cell. A bit of an oversimplification if you count miniaturized Rb standards based on VCSELs, but those are at the very bottom end of the performance spectrum to begin with. As adrian_b suggests, the best crystal oscillators are superior in many respects to the worst rubidium standards.
So a good laser-based standard will never be more economical than a lamp-based standard unless someone finds a way to run the laser open-loop. AFAIK that hasn't happened yet, at least not with something I can order off the shelf from Edmund or Thor Labs.
Yep, that would be a much better example. Defending Midgley is a task for superintelligent AI if there ever was one.
Still, the underlying technology is not "leaded gasoline" but "internal combustion engines." The human condition would certainly be better if you could erase Midgley from history, along with the people who invented shoe-store fluoroscopes and radium paint, but it would be worse if you erased Roentgen, Otto and Diesel. Horses weren't the global-max of mobility and human brains aren't the apotheosis of reason.
Not necessarily. I'm still learning how to do that, just like the rest of the industry will have to. TDD in the age of AI is a skill that will emerge from disciplined practice as well as a lot of trial-and-error.
As for digging in manually, right now I still have to keep a pretty close eye on the C code the clankers emit, but then I'm old enough to remember when we had to debug compiled C code by stepping through x86 opcodes in Turbo Debugger. That need went away, frankly sooner than I thought it would. I almost never need to look at x64 assembly anymore, and I can't sight-read ARM at all. The same thing will happen with what we call high-level languages today.
At some point last year I noticed that I was finding fewer bugs in AI-generated parts of the code than the AI was finding in my own, and that trend clearly isn't going to reverse itself. When the clanker screws something up, it's usually because I gave it flawed or incomplete instructions, not because it's incapable of doing the job right.
Not always, but usually.
Alternatively, people could be reading hollerith's post as "I want Ukraine to do whatever's necessary to make peace with Russia," which is obviously downvote-worthy.
I personally chose to read it as "I want a peace deal that involves Russia G'ing TFO and paying reparations," but he did leave room for other interpretations.
Nor have you laid out how traditional political and social structures are going to save your job (or anyone else's) in the long run. You say you're "Angry and opinionated." We've seen the anger part, so let's hear some opinions.
Are you a rationalist, e/acc, or someone related to TESCREAL, or especially anything touching on Curtis Yarvin? If so no need to answer, I think you guys are in a cult with the modern equivalent of Dianetics, so we are never going to see eye to eye.
I'm e/acc-curious, you could say. Lots of philosophical overlap but I'm not much of a joiner. Not sure who the rationalists or TESCREAL are.
I know who Yarvin is, though, and would generally take the opposite side of any argument with him. If there's a "cult" in play here, it's the voters who were duped into electing and then re-electing Trump. Democracy simply cannot survive if it continues to grant stupid people the same political power as smart people. The stupid people will be herded to the polls by unethical smart people like Yarvin, using the power of mass media and social media as we've seen.
Meanwhile, the remaining smart people get along together like cats in a sack, ensuring they have only sporadic political influence that is bound to diminish further over time.
At the same time, democracy cannot retain the support of the people if it disenfranchises voters on grounds of education or intelligence. That leaves one obvious conclusion: that it won't survive. How AI will get us past that, I have no idea. But if you want to predict the future you're going to have to account for both the rise of AI and the fall of democracy.
After this incarnation of the Industrial Revolution, those white-collar jobs will be mostly gone, and nothing will replace them. I personally don't think CEOs and politicians will end up being any more immune than junior programmers. New forms of organization will have to emerge on both the labor and management sides. (Democracy at the nation-state level is pretty much toast anyway, so something else is going to have to replace it, AI or no AI.)
Blue-collar labor will eventually be subsumed by robotics, but that will take longer. Things like UBI will make more sense in this environment than they do now, and I think that'll be a big part of it. Not to say that all gains will be equally distributed, or that they should be, but I don't things can get much worse than where they are headed today with regard to the tilted economic playing field.
The worst case scenario would indeed be if all the gains get concentrated and centralized, as the major AI labs seem to want, but I don't think it'll work out that way.
As a taxpayer I'd consider it one of the world's great bargains, shutting down Russian imperialism before they cause even more grief.
Which if anything seems worse.
1: https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/867947/o...
I get downvoted every time I point out that this was entirely rational. This, downvoters, is why it was entirely rational. Does that mean I agree with it? Of course not. But investments are made to pay off, and this one certainly has for OpenAI.
My workflow used to be:
1. Draft rough spec
2. Write a bunch of C/C++ code
3. Test manually
Now it's more like: 1. Put some actual care into a detailed spec
2. Write equally detailed test harness spec
3. Hand both specs to clanker. Surf HN for a while
4. Review target code casually
5. Review test harness very carefully
6. Run test(s) manually (or, lately, get the clanker to do that too)
7. Iterate if necessary, going back to step 1, 2, or 3 as appropriate
This doesn't necessarily even save that much time, but it makes the job easier and more enjoyable, and it forces me to do things I should've been doing all along. If steps 1, 2, and 5 are done properly, step 4 can be "Meh, whatever, LGTM."The analogy I like to use is Harold Black's work in the 1930s, trying to convince the patent office and his peers that yes, negative feedback is a huge, huge F'ing deal, because it only takes a small amount to make a large improvement in linearity. Anytime you have something that is 95% as good as it needs to be, it will be good enough if you can wrap a loop around it.
When I say that nobody cares about determinism, that's what I mean. Determinism is indeed important, but only at the delivery level. There are many routes to achieving it, none of which require you to write low-level code yourself. If you insist on doing that, you have a hobby, not a profession.
Where does this happen, besides the Gulf of Aden off the Somali coast?
So are container ships in international waters. Put them there.
Nobody cares. Deal with it and get over it.
Better if you don't need saving at all, because you've been empowered to help yourself at your job. Ultimately the goal is to free you entirely from dependence on a day-to-day occupation.
You may have noticed that no one else is even trying to help.
The American labs are giving us endless FUD and unaffordable DRAM.
So, yes, there's a lot of room to 'promote' Chinese models and 'cast shade' on domestic models.
AI is the ultimate social safety net, if you'll just get out of the way of the people weaving it.