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BurningFrog

25,457 karma · joined January 14, 2015

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BurningFrog··on Amazonian civilization had estimated 3M people in 3% of forest area
One story I've heard is that European colonists in the Caribbean only survived a few years before dying of Malaria. The natives didn't do any better.

So the sugar industry started importing African slaves, who actually had some malaria immunity.

This worked pretty well, and the transatlantic slave trade went on for centuries.

BurningFrog··on Amazonian civilization had estimated 3M people in 3% of forest area
Most of this happened centuries before the germ theory of disease.

No one on either side had any real clue what was going on, and most probably thought it was a cruel punishment from the God(s).

Often the disease travelled faster than people, and when Europeans arrived, the natives were long since gone.

BurningFrog··on Norway became a global salmon behemoth. Now it's facing the consequences
On land we abandoned the hunter/gatherer system for farming thousands of years ago.

Because it just doesn't scale! It can feed 50-100 million people at most.

Maybe we need to empty the oceans of wild fish before we make that transition for seafood, but I hope it can happen a bit more quickly.

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
The process is well understood: https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/3821/2025/acp-25-3821...
BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
The SO₂ cleans up itself in ~2 years.
BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
Maybe it's not clear that I'm talking about what to do with the excess CO₂ after we've stopped emitting more!

The stratospheric injections of SO₂ can bring temperatures down to healthy levels. This fixes most of the negative effects of high CO₂, and can go on for centuries if need be...

... but I'd prefer to get that CO₂ out once and for all. Solar powered machines that extracts it from the air and pumps it down to eternal underground cavities should be able to do that once we have much better tech. If it takes decades or centuries doesn't matter too much.

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
Their huge solar panels will surely block some sunlight!

That will lower the warming!

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
Surely it matters even more while we're still emitting?
BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
The Mt Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991 actually did inject huge amounts of SO₂ to the stratosphere, and it disappeared over the next few years.

While it remained, northern hemisphere temperatures lowered by ~0.5°C.

USGS report: https://pubs.usgs.gov/pinatubo/self/

Since the stratosphere is far above the rain cycle, it's very hard to imagine a mechanism whereby this could produce acid rain, and even if it did, acid rain is a much smaller problem than global warming.

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
One not very well known fact is that even if we stop emissions today, the elevated CO₂ levels will remain for many centuries.

They way I think/hope we can fix this is two parts:

1. The only way I think you can get rid of the excess CO₂ at scale is to permanently sequester it underground. The oil/gas industry can cheaply deposit huge amounts of gas there. The unsolved problem is extracting enough CO₂ from the atmosphere at reasonable cost. People are working on that, but it will probably be decades before it's is approaching practicality.

Which is why we need to do this in the meantime:

2. Spray the stratosphere with SO₂. This reflects some some sunlight and cools the planet. It sounds scary, but is actually safe: https://makesunsets.com/pages/new-faq

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
If we figured out how to store chopped down trees somewhere where the wood doesn't break down, that would be a really effective way to get CO2 out of the air!

Easier said than done, of course. Sinking millions of trees to the bottom of the ocean might be the most practical way.

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
Germany is singled out because decided to close their safe and well functioning zero emission power plants for no good reason, thus exploding their CO2 emissions.

Yeah, other emit more, but the rank stupidity of this environmental vandalism deserves the scorn it gets!

BurningFrog··on Europe's fires are just the start
Prescribed burns are a good way to clean forests!

Burn the debris every 10-20 years rather than let it accumulate and become unstoppable disaster fires once a century.

This tends to be very hard hard to do in a democratic system though. People really don't like their forests burning.

BurningFrog··on Hunter-gatherers introduced fish to a mountain lake 7000 years ago
I looked this up, and you're right!

Thanks for teaching me something new. That doesn't happen every day!

BurningFrog··on Hunter-gatherers introduced fish to a mountain lake 7000 years ago
I really doubt they try to determine the immigration intentions of strangers they encounter.

From what I hear, they kill any outsider within spear range.

BurningFrog··on Hunter-gatherers introduced fish to a mountain lake 7000 years ago
Do we know anything about their morals, aside from that they kill immigrants at sight?
BurningFrog··on Hunter-gatherers introduced fish to a mountain lake 7000 years ago
I can see how the evolutionary advantage of such hardened eggs would be huge!
BurningFrog··on Should you wash your solar panels?
Look at any outside surface in a rainy climate.

The dirt may not be piling up, but it's far from clean.

BurningFrog··on Should you wash your solar panels?
It's perfectly rational to assume someone who didn't bother to clean the house before selling probably didn't take good care of the house in other, less visible ways.
BurningFrog··on Writing by hand is good for your brain
Obviously (I hope), once you've grafittied your book, you shouldn't sell it as unaltered!

That doesn't mean scribbling in your own book is wrong.

BurningFrog··on How to stop Claude from saying load-bearing
Haven't done it, but letting an AI polish a manual first draft might be the best of both worlds?
BurningFrog··on DOGE is done. What happened to its records?
Democratic rule primarily means that those who win elections get to rule.

That's really the by far most important aspect!

BurningFrog··on DOGE is done. What happened to its records?
Overthrowing democratic rule feels like an overreaction.
BurningFrog··on AI 2040: Plan A
Those are pretty dysfunctional economical and political systems.

In the industrialized world, old professions disappear all the time, and are replaced with new ones. I saw somewhere that it's about 2% per year.

BurningFrog··on SpaceX wants to launch 100k more Starlink satellites for 100x the bandwidth
Objectively, SpaceX is worth 1.83 trillion dollars right now: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/

I think that qualifies as "very valuable" in any context.

BurningFrog··on SpaceX wants to launch 100k more Starlink satellites for 100x the bandwidth
The exact percentages is not the point. SpaceX is worth $1832B¹, and those are the three main revenue streams. However you slice it, their rocket launch business is extremely valuable.

¹ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/

BurningFrog··on AI boosts research careers but narrow the span of ideas explored: study
Wasn't Einstein's discoveries based on things humanity had already done?

AIs do things no human has done before millions of times a day.

BurningFrog··on SpaceX wants to launch 100k more Starlink satellites for 100x the bandwidth
The simple answer is that SpaceX is worth about 1900 billion dollars at today's stock price. It's the 7th most valuable company on Earth.

According to an AI I asked, about 50% of that value is Starlink, with space launches and AI making up about 25% each.

The Starlink business depends on their cheap space launch tech, so using these rough numbers capability I'd say it is worth 75% of the company, or $1400B.

BurningFrog··on SpaceX wants to launch 100k more Starlink satellites for 100x the bandwidth
My position is more that it's OK to mention a well known and easily verifiable fact without digging out authoritative sources.
BurningFrog··on SpaceX wants to launch 100k more Starlink satellites for 100x the bandwidth
"I saw something I didn't like, so I assumed it was the fault of a billionaire I don't like" didn't use to be the top voted comment on HN.

Starlink satellites have low orbits and only reflect sunlight around sunrise and sunset.

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