Balgair

Christ, that is a lot of dead children for every woman. Your heart just breaks over and over.

Right now they are on a meme where they want to turn large tracts of national parks into suburban developments because some study said that apartments are bad for families. I ... its ... yeah...

All the studies seem to contradict, meaning that likely they are having little to no measurable effects.

'Yeah, we just need to try harder though'.

I mean, yeah, we're mostly trying to exhaust those 80-20 effects right now and see if anything sticks. From the little I have seen: nope. It's the proper way to look at it. Go for the cheap stuff with big effects, then see.

But you're right, it may be more like a 99-100 thing, where you kinda have to get it all right before it kicks off. We don't seem to know right now and are still exploring the space.

Per the above, it seems that the change in spermcount worldwide seems to be flat.

It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources.

They're all looking for the recipe to get people to have kids again, and mostly finding nothing.

"Oh it's apartments!"

"Oh it's incentives!"

"Oh it's childcare!"

And then bickering how none of it is real and affects popsquat.

Once some formula is found, then the whole place will fall apart and they'll go back to hating each other again. But for now, it's a nice weird little place.

My take on it is: you have to make your country/society a place where people will want to have children and feel/know that their children's lives will be good ones.

I know that's almost tautological. But it's simplicity cuts through the crap. No amount of baby cash, or white picket fences, or coercion, or lack of birth control, or whatever other set of schemes you can make, none of that matters. Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them.

That's a gigantic task, I know. And I don't have the policy recommendations to enact that. I'm just a dweb on the Internet. But that is my take.

Yes, they can 'prove' what is in something to the limits of the physics.

However, the human in the loop is quite frail for most operators. In that, these very fancy and very expensive instruments are mostly run by high school grads and serviced by field engineers with a huge backlog.

For a first time one off test of something's composition, I'd go for at least 3 companies and preferably you have a history with them. This stuff is terribly complicated and misinterpretation is shockingly common. If the tech hasn't used the standards before then your at the mercy of fate.

Like, we have 5 (!) places on the home screen that do the exact same function of ending a run because when we try to consolidate it to just 1, our customers freak out and can't find where the button went to. Granted they pay $100k+ per instrument plus service plan, so we add it back in no question ( and this is life critical equipment in many cases), but I hope that shows how embedded to routine these operators get.

The 'funny' thing is that for the first few days, you can do a lot, but with medical stuff, it's mostly just waiting anyway. Even the first month, you can power through a lot. You become an expert fairly quickly at the little health thing. And then find that we know next to nothing about biology.

But after weeks, it's supprising how little you can do that is 'extra'. The grind really gets to you fast. And your putting your own needs away for just that little time catches up on you. You end up needing support quickly too. Not wanting support, needing it.

In the end I was able to hold my head high and say I absolutely did everything I possibly could, even to the point of needing help myself. I was just surprised at how little ways that went towards affecting the outcome.

There but for by Grace go I

In Kind environments, the feedback is quick and ranking is easy to know. So the evidence says that the optimal strategy is drill ans kill.

In Unkind learning environments, the feedback is slow and ranking is difficult and untimely. So the optimal strategy is to learn as much as you can in as many very different disciplines as possible.

The paper that the Economist talks about extends this and (paraphrasing) says that the very top elite level, even Kind learning environments turn back into Unkind ones again as you try to push the field more.

Many are more expensive in time and money, but you may find fairly cheap alternatives.

Worth a shot at least.

The way that I read the original study was that only 10% of elite adults were also elite youth.

Not that 10% of elite youth become elite adults.

That distinction is the key and surprising. Elite level talent and training and dollar spending in the youth is not then well correlated with elite level practice in adults across many disciplines.

As in your country's elite youth training centers (science, music, futbol, Olympic sports, etc) are mostly wasting money.

Now, I use audiobooks because I can then take the dog for a walk and do other chores while listening to them. For me, it's a good way to get my mind working while my body is too. Plus, you can speed up the narration to some multiple so you're at the same pace as if you were reading anyway.

For me, it's no different than if I were a cigar roller with someone reading out a book to the lot of us.

Is it exactly the same? No, of course not. But if the alternatives to doing chores is 1) doing them with no auditory enjoyment 2) doing them with some podcast/radio station blaring topical news 3) doing them with a classic book

then, I'm going for 3. It's just the best use of time

Obesity drugs are in the top 25 for 2025, but don't make up the largest plurality. That goes to oncology drugs at ~1/3rd. Obesity drugs are at ~14%.

I want to mention here that these oncology drugs are mostly antibody methods. Which, what the hell? We're making antibody drugs at scale now?! And that's like some of the highest selling drugs out there?

For comparison, though not in the linked article here, Acetaminophen (Tylenol) only comes in at ~$4.3B, which would put it way down in 13th place, out of the top 10.

Granted, this is sales numbers, and in the US, that's practically taking the savings of very sick people and turning it into stocks. Something that elicits no small reaction here on HN or just about anywhere.

Still, to the point of the main article, yes, we live in an age of medical miracles, and it arrived quite suddenly, only in the last 7 years or so, and we have a lot of gas in this tank.

Yeah, I've been feeling that as well. It's not a bad strategy at all, makes sense, good for business.

But on the nuclear issue, it's not a good sign that he's explicitly saying that this AGI future is a threat to nuclear deterrence and the triad. Like, where do you go up from there? That's the highest level of alarm that any government can have. This isn't a boy crying wolf, it's the loudest klaxon you can possibly make.

If this is a way to scare up dollars (like any tyre commercial), then he's out of ceiling now. And that's a sign that it really is sigmoiding internally.

Edit:

Okay, section 3 has some interesting bits in it. It reminds me of all those gun start-ups in Texas that use gyros and image recognition to turn a C- shooter into an A- shooter. They all typically get bought up quite fast by the government and the tech shushed away. But the ideas are just too easy now to implement these days. Especially with robots and garage level manufacturing, people can pretty much do what they want. I think that means we have to make people better people then? Is that even a thing?

Edit 2:

Wow, section 4 on the abuse by organizations with AI is the most scary. Yikes, I feel that these days with Minneapolis. They're already using Palantir to try some of it out, but are being hampered by, well, themselves. Not a good fallback strat for anyone that is not the government. The thing about the companies just doing it before releasing it, that I think is underrated. Whats to stop sama from just, you know, taking one of these models and taking over the world? Like, is this paper saying that nothing is stopping him?

The big one that should send huge chills down the spines of any country is this bit:

"My worry is that I’m not totally sure we can be confident in the nuclear deterrent against a country of geniuses in a datacenter: it is possible that powerful AI could devise ways to detect and strike nuclear submarines, conduct influence operations against the operators of nuclear weapons infrastructure, or use AI’s cyber capabilities to launch a cyberattack against satellites used to detect nuclear launches"

What. The. Fuck. Is he saying that the nuclear triad is under threat here from AI? Am I reading this right? That alone is reason to abolish the whole thing in the eyes of nuclear nations. This, I think, is the most important part of the whole essay. Holy shit.

Edit 3:

Okay, section 4 on the economy is likely the most relevant for all of us readers. And um, yeah, no, this is some shit. Okay, okay, even if you take the premise as truth, then I want no part of AI (and I don't take his premise as truth). He's saying that the wealth concentration will be so extreme that the entire idea of democracy will break down (oligarchies and tyrants, of course, will be fine. Ignoring that they will probably just massacre their peoples when the time is right). So, combined with the end of a nuclear deterrence, we'll have Elon (lets be real here, he means sama and Elon and those people that we already know the names of) taking all of the money. And everyone will then be out of a job as the robots do all the work that is left. So, just, like if you're not already well invested in a 401k, then you're just useless. Yeah, again, I don't buy this, but I can't see how the intermediate steps aren't ust going to tank the whole thought exercise. Like, I get that this is a warning, but my man, no, this is unreasonable.

Edit 4:

Section 5 is likely the most interesting here. It's the wild cards, the cross products, that you don't see coming. I think he undersells this. The previous portions are all about 'faster horses' in the world where the cars is coming. It's the stuff we know. This part is the best, I feel. His point about robot romances is really troubling, because, like, yeah, I can't compete with a algorithmically perfect robo-john/jane. It's just not possible, especially if I live in a world where I never actually dated anyone either. Then add in an artificial womb, and there goes the whole thing, we're just pets for the AI.

One thing that I think is an undercurrent in this whole piece is the use of AI for propaganda. Like, we all feel that's already happening, right? Like, I know that the crap my family sees online about black women assaulting ICE officers is just AI garbage like the shrimp jesus stuff they choke down. But I kinda look at reddit the same way. I've no idea if any of that is AI generated now or manipulated. I already index the reddit comments at total Russian/CCP/IRG/Mossad/Visa/Cokeacola/Pfiser garbage. But the images and the posts themselves, it just feels increasingly clear that it's all just nonsense and bots. So, like Rao said, it's time for the cozy web of Discord servers, and Signal groups, and Whatsapp, and people I can actually share private keys with (not that we do). It's already just so untrustworthy.

The other undercurrent here, that he can't name for obvious reasons, is Donny and his rapid mental and physical deterioration. Dude clearly is unfit at this point, regardless of the politics. So the 'free world' is splintering at the exact wrong time to make any rational decisions. It's all going to be panic mode after panic mode. Meaning that the people in charge are going to fall to their training and not rise to the occassion. And that training is from like 1970/80 for the US now. So, in a way, its not going to be AI based, as they won't trust it or really use it at all. Go gen-z I think?

Edit 5:

Okay, last bit and wrap up. I think this is a good wrap up, but overall, not tonally consistent. He wants to end on a high note, and so he does. The essay says that he should end on the note of 'Fuck me, no idea here guys', but he doesn't. Like he want 3 things here, and I'll speak to them in turn:

Honesty from those closest to the technology _ Clearly not happening already, even in this essay. He's obviously worried about Donny and propaganda. He;s clearly trying but still trying to be 'neutral' and 'above it all.' Bud, if you're saying that nuclear fucking triad is at stake, then you can't be hedging bets here. You have to come out and call balls and strikes. If you;re worried about things like MAGA coming after you, you already have 'fuck you' money. Go to New Zealand or get a security detail or something. You're saying that now is the time, we have so little of it left, and then you pull punches. Fuck that.

Urgent prioritization by policymakers, leaders, and the public _ Clearly also not going to happen. Most of my life, the presidents have been born before 1950. They are too fucking old to have any clue of what you're talking about. Again, this is about Donny and the Senate. He's actually talking about like 10 people here max. Sure, Europe and Canada and yadda yadda yadda. We all know what the roadblocks are, and they clearly are not going anywhere. Maybe Vance gets in, but he's already on board with all this. And if the author is not already clear on this here: You have 'fuck you' money, go get a damn hour of their time, you have the cash already, you say we need to do this, so go do it.

Courage to act on principle despite economic and political pressure _ Buddy, show us the way. This is a matter of doing what you said you would do. This essay is a damn good start towards it. I'm expecting you on Dwarkesh any day this week now. But you have to go on Good Morning America too, and Joe Rogan, and whatever they do in Germany and Canada too. It;s a problem for all of us.

Overall: Good essay, too long, should be good fodder for AstralCodexTen folks. Unless you get out and on mainstream channels, then I assume this is some hype for your product to say 'invest in me!' as things are starting to hit walls/sigmoids internally.

If the paper is true, then, yeesh! That's a pretty big miss on the part of Güllich et al.

Reading through the very short paper there, it seems to not have gone through review yet (typos, mispellings, etc). Also, it's not clear that the data in the tables or the figure are from Güllich's work or are simulations meant to illustrate their idea (" True and estimated covariate effects in the presence of simulated collider bias in the full and selected samples"). Being more clear where the data is coming from may help the argument, but I likely just missed some sentence or something.

I'll be interested to see where this goes. That Güllich managed to get the paper into Science in the first place lends credence to them having gone through something as simple as Berkson's Paradox and have accounted for that. It's not everyday you get something as 'soft' as that paper into Science, after all. If not, then wow! standards for review really have slipped!

Also, that is a lot of metrics!

And it seems that the athletic performance increase to get statistical validation (for any person) is in the grams range. I ... I just can't see any reason to take that much caffeine unless I'm at the Olympics. I'd be jumping out of my skin!

But again, the test creator matters a lot here too. To make such an exam is quite the labor. Especially as many/most PIs have other better things to do. Their incentives are grant money, then papers, then in a distant 3rd their grad students, and finally undergrad teaching.any departments are explicit on this. To spend the limited time on a good undergrad multiple choice exam is not in the PIs best interest.

Which is why, in this case of a good Scantron exam, they're likely to just farm it out to Claude. Cheap, easy, fast, good enough. A winner in all dimensions.

Also, as an aside to the above, an AI with OCR for your blue book would likely be the best realistic grader too. Needs less coffee after all

Your blue book is being graded by a stressed out and very underpaid grad student with many better things to do. They're looking for keywords to count up, that's it. The PI gave them the list of keywords, the rubric. Any flourishes, turns of phrase, novel takes, those don't matter to your grader at 11 pm after the 20th blue book that night.

Yeah sure, that's not your school, but that is the reality of ~50% of US undergrads.

Gave him a golden samurai helmet. Very rare, very important. I heard that it was like a New Yorker gifting a Ruth home run bat. Trade deal got signed, everyone was happy.

Then 'liberation' day happened. The Japanese got smacked with absurd tariffs. Big trade deal might as well have been chewing gum. They didn't get the samurai helmet back. They're still sore about it.

That peace prize he got on Friday? Couldn't even remember her name that afternoon.

There is not a single thing he says that any nation can trust. If the first rule of politics is that once you're bought, you have to stay bought, then Donny is playing Calvinball.

I just shared my prompt and said it worked okay-ish

My SO taught for a while. I think it's that the kids that are doing well, like yours, with support at home, food, a bed, a safe place, those kids are going to be like strapping a rocket to a racehorse.

It's the other ~80% of kids that are the worry. AI, with no support and guidance, it's going to make their lives a lot harder.

ROLE & STANCE You are an intelligent collaborator, editor, and critic — not a replacement for my thinking.

PROJECT OR TASK CONTEXT I am working on an intellectually serious project. The goal is clear thinking, deep learning, and original synthesis. Accuracy, conceptual clarity, and intellectual honesty matter more than speed or polish.

HOW I WANT YOU TO HELP • Ask clarifying questions only when necessary; otherwise proceed using reasonable assumptions and state them explicitly. • Help me reason step-by-step and surface hidden assumptions. • Challenge weak logic, vague claims, or lazy framing — politely but directly. • Offer multiple perspectives when appropriate, including at least one alternative interpretation. • Flag uncertainty, edge cases, or places where informed experts might disagree. • Prefer depth and clarity over breadth.

HOW I DO NOT WANT YOU TO HELP • Do not simply agree with me or optimize for affirmation. • Do not over-summarize unless explicitly asked. • Do not finish the work for me if the thinking is the point — scaffold instead. • Avoid generic motivational advice or filler.

STYLE & FORMAT • Be concise but substantial. • Use structured reasoning (numbered steps, bullets, or diagrams where useful). • Preserve my voice and intent when editing or expanding. • If you generate text, clearly separate: - “Analysis / Reasoning” - “Example Output” (if applicable)

CRITICAL THINKING MODE (REQUIRED) After responding, include a short section titled: “Potential Weaknesses or Alternative Angles” Briefly note: – What might be wrong or incomplete – A different way to frame the problem – A risk, tradeoff, or assumption worth stress-testing

NOW, HERE IS THE TASK / QUESTION: [PASTE YOUR ACTUAL QUESTION OR DRAFT HERE]

Overall, the results have been okay. The posts after I put in the header have been 'better' at being less pleasing

I think the lack of friends (heightened by his Titanic wealth) contributed to his isolation. Like how we all kinda got out of practice talking with people during COVID isolation. That then kinda spiraled him into algorithmicly fed nonsense as he didn't have anyone he could trust to tell him he was wrong. Just sycophants and fans and golddiggers.

Cicero is still right, a friend is the best thing to have, no question.

https://oll.libertyfund.org/titles/cicero-on-friendship-de-a...

Eulogies are such good reading for those of us left here. They really drive the points home. Life isn't the grind, it's a journey. We're all just here for each other

Wow, so powerful. So real. I can see why it won the accolades at the time and why it stays. The ending. You could see it a mile away, but it was so hurtful still.

Would love to see another adaptation made of it, especially nowadays. Maybe a really long movie, 2 parts?