3JPLW

We don't have enough tests to do it. The testing backlog is getting worse — not better. The current backlog is estimated at 7-14 days in some areas.

Extensive — super extensive — testing, contact tracing, and strong quarantining of suspected and confirmed positives. From the get-go.

Seriously? We've watched this thing spread over the past three months. Every single nation and state saw exponential growth of confirmed cases once community spread started happening — often doubling every 2-4 days. The growth continued until serious mitigations (like shutdowns and lockdowns) were put in place.

Why do you think the rest of the US is going to be different? They're just a few doublings (some days) behind.

Very true. Here's some more comprehensive numbers from Italian media:

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=it&u=https:/...

Since Feb 25 there have been 91 deaths with positive COVID-19 diagnoses. In total there have been 330 deaths. I'd be very curious what the age breakdowns are.

Anyhow, this was just a small example that shows that we're already seeing significant mortality relative to the _total population_ and not just by confirmed positive cases.

Cool, thanks for the data. Looks like their population is 30% over 60, whereas the US (for example) is 20%. Even if we assume _every_ death is someone over 60 (it's not), that'd adjust the percentage to 0.4% in a generic US town.

Note that Florida is similarly 28% over 60.

It seems like you're pushing back on the CFR, possibly driven by trying to pessimize the need for action.

In the small Italian city of Nembro in Bergamo, 0.6% of their entire population has died in the last 12 days. That's 70 people in a small town of 11,000 — typically there are fewer than 70 deaths every six months. Now we're certainly _overestimating_ the denominator and still getting a number that's larger than the flu. While the numerator is also an overestimate (because it includes deaths not related to COVID-19), their healthcare system is stretched beyond capacity due to the virus leading to difficulties treating all illnesses and traumas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-obit...

Regardless of the cause (if it's that "one word" or not), the behaviors are crazy-making and there's a trend of more aggressively exploiting UB for optimizations.

To put a finer point on it — while reusing an old mask might prevent you from getting Covid19, it might also expose you to a bacteria or fungus that could _also_ lead to a pneumonia or other such lung diseases.

You really don't want to be needing a ventilator for any reason in the next few weeks/months.

Reusability of Facemasks During an Influenza Pandemic: Facing the Flu (2006): https://www.nap.edu/read/11637/chapter/6#59

* Finding 1: The committee could not identify or find any simple modifications to the manufacturing process that would permit disposable N95 respirators to be reused without increasing the likelihood of infection.

* Finding 2: Any method of decontaminating a disposable N95 filtering facepiece respirator must remove the viral threat, be harmless to the user, and not compromise the integrity of the various elements of the respirator. The committee found no method of decontamination that met all three criteria.

* Finding 3: The committee found no simple modifications to currently existing N95 filtering facepiece respirators that would obviate the need for fit-testing.

* Finding 4: Many versions of reusable (elastomeric) respirators on the market have facepieces that can be cleaned and reused. Some of these are available in full-facepiece versions that also offer eye protection and may prevent conjunctival transmission. These respirators can be reused by single or multiple wearers and, although they are more expensive than the disposable N95 respirators, should be considered as an alternative to filtering facepieces.

Yeah, but they've also been able to significantly slow the spread, growing at what looks to be closer to 10% day-over-day (doubling every week). Most everywhere else is seeing 25-35% (doubling every 2-3 days).

This paper confirms the finding (google search: droplet transmission "winter"). They're uncertain of the mechanistic cause, though. They summarize:

> Cold and/or dry conditions impact the stability of influenza virus particles, the innate defense of host nasal epithelia, and the production of infectious bioaerosols. Each of these effects contributes a plausible explanation for the impact of [relative humidity] and temperature on respiratory droplet transmission, and more than one mechanism most likely contributes to the observed transmission outcomes.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4097773/

Here's an updated thread from the same author with more plots, more countries, and a few more thoughts. Well worth reading.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1237781162153717760.html

Not sure why this is getting downvoted. We're all on approximately the same exponential trend as Italy, just a few days behind. The US, for example, is looking to be 11 days behind. Do nothing and we'll end up where they are now.

https://twitter.com/EcolEpig/status/1237430984678703104

> Tell them that while average mortality rates may be low, it is highly dependend on age.

Mortality rates are also highly dependent upon healthcare system capacity — especially so for elderly and at-risk, because they're the ones more likely to require hospitalization to survive.

Absolutely no development. I use it as my starting point for feature branches, as well as subsequent rebases and merges on them. And I use it to build and run the current master.

The content is awesome and the site is starting to struggle with the demand. Here's a cache/mirror/archive (ctrl-f) in case it goes down completely: https://archive.is/Du1G2

Yup, I really miss UrbanSpoon for the same reason (now owned by zomato and totally ruined). I found it's percent-thumbs-up metric to be so much more valuable than Yelp's 5-star average. If you really want a finer-grained system, have multiple thumbs-up, thumbs-downs.

What do I want? It sure seems to do exactly what I need in the case where I'm on my local `master` and it's exactly the state of `origin/master` but a day or two behind.

It is.

Chicago has been slowly replacing its yellow sodium streetlamps with efficient LEDs that project down instead of up. They've been working block-by-block in a systematic way that you can see when you fly into the city at night. It's quite dramatic.

Cache/archive/mirror: https://archive.is/jrQ4n#selection-727.0-731.211

In short:

> What is the Second Sock Syndrome?

> SSS usually refers to the inability to produce complete pairs of socks. Knitting the first sock usually goes quickly. But the second one seems to drag on, never gets completed or even cast on in the first place.

It's entirely a knitting blog, but surely this was posted here as it's a problem I know I face in all sorts of domains, including programming. Once the interesting part is figured out, finishing the project is the tough part.

I use Mint purely as an API to coalesce and export the transaction history. I then use a Google Sheets workbook to view my balance and expenditures (by Mint-assigned category) over time — allowing for coarse insights, prioritization, and adjustment.

The Mint-assigned categories are terrible, and I regularly have to review and re-assign categorizations.

If I were a foreign government looking to get insight into classified research, Sci-Hub plus a targeted PDF exploit on a small set of domain-specific papers would definitely be high on my list of targets. Cycling through so many different domain names and TLDs makes it easy to spin up a clone that _largely_ forwards to the real one but gives you the ability to return some compromised papers.

I love sci-hub and have often used it, but the above idea has always been rattling around in my head and gives me pause.

This is exactly why campaigns push so much harder on GOTV than persuasion for the general election.

While it's great that Monica was able to arrive at a satisfactory agreement, it's a damn shame for the rest of the community that it apparently included an NDA clause.

That said, I could totally respect and understand a desire on Monica's part to put this whole thing in the past.

> is still vastly safer than driving on a per-distance-travelled basis

I did the math one time with very conservative numbers (thinking it'd be an easy win) and got shockingly close:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19983686

If you have an alternative reference or more exact numbers I'd love to see them!

My very naive understanding of ultrasound techniques is that they can work very well, but in cases where they don't work they end up creating a mess of things (scar tissue, etc) that make subsequent removal pretty much impossible as the surgeon can no longer see clear boundaries. That info is several years out of date and second-hand, so perhaps by guiding the process a little better as TFA suggests they can avoid making any subsequent surgery impossible.

But why?

So, there are files?

Doesn't the Great Firewall mandate (or at least strongly suggest) that those Chinese-controlled root certs are installed for devices behind it?