Galaxy Quest
texasmonthly.com
texasmonthly.com
This isn't a criticism -- it's nothing to me how these people choose to live their lives, and I'm all about pursuing your dreams. But it seems like there would be consequences to being so formally (and publicly) ranked second, or lower, by your wife.
Yes, soldiers deploy with the hope of returning, whereas Mars One would be a certain one-way trip. However, unlike a military deployment, Mars One is so dubious (to be charitable about it)... it's questionable to say that anyone involved has REALLY committed to anything yet.
However, you're right. Regardless of how low the chances are that one will actually go to Mars, putting themselves forward like this creates a 100% chance of informing spouses that they WOULD be willing to abandon them. Still, there seem to be many earth-bound scenarios in which couples face this sort of thing anyway.
I cannot fathom what that family is going through. I do wish them the best.
The fact is it does matter whether or not Mars One is realistic or legitimate. Because there's always a backlash. Right now we have some optimism about space - big, hairy expensive programs like the ISS are actually getting done. Space X is actually achieving what so many internet billionaire's pet space projects failed to do previously. "Grand Endeavours" aren't made up of PR stunts and ridiculous plans - they're made up of really smart, tough people working on really hard problems for a long time.
What happens when the Mars One backlash and disappointment hits the mainstream? Do you think the average person is going to have a lot of faith in subsequent NASA proposals for Mars? What do you think is the flipside of this?
this is denial. if it isn't, it's a giant red flag at the very least.
If Mars One wasn't just a short-term money grab, they wouldn't be too concerned with collecting 75% of interview fees. That is so bush league that to imagine your whole life is going to be shaped by this organization is pretty delusional.
Of course, 'Galaxy Quest' is a pretty popular science fiction film, but it's one that parodies mainly a space opera series that takes place long after the Solar System has been explored. For anyone interested enough to read the article, titling it 'Galaxy Quest' is an outright distraction. You can say I'm pointlessly nitpicking, but I genuinely believe that laziness and sticking to convention ('here's a sci-fi reference!') has fuelled the decline of print journalism in favour of more authentic fare.
Surely they can't think she is actually going to go, as opposed to go do training and have some fun things to say at cocktail parties.
Edit: ok so maybe we have an idea, but not enough to just ask Elon for the extras package, and no where near enough money to do the research and development. I mean - moonshot, 5% of GDP for 10 years.
Let's say 'The Case for Mars' is viable but the costings were optimistic, and should be more like $500 billion in 2015 dollars, that's more like 0.3% of USA GDP for ten years. Way greater than Mars One's supposed budget but achievable if America decided to colonise Mars.
http://mobile.extremetech.com/latest/221705-the-apollo-11-mo...
>> In 2009, NASA looked back at the cost of the Apollo program in its entirety, and arrived at a figure of $170 billion in 2005 dollars.
1966 NASA funding peaked at 4.4% of Federal Budget (not GDP). So my memory is way off.
The parent post of 500bn looks more reasonable against the Apollo cost of 170bn, but current Federal budget is 3.9 Trillion, 4.4% of which is 170bn.
So looking at NASA as % of federal budget we see 170bn per annum for best part of a decade, or close on 2 trillion dollars.
Whichever way we look at it, Mars will be pricey. And well beyond non state actors.
However the point of Mars Direct was to avoid some of the endlessly-extrapolating-upwards budget numbers by avoiding big technology developments (building a giant ship in orbit / launching from a moonbase / exotic engine technology); making use of elements present on Mars to produce rocket fuel on-planet from a smaller feedstock sent from Earth; and making use of automation, by preceding each manned trip with an unmanned fuel-production vehicle, with there always being one more lot of return fuel than human crews on Mars.
I quite agree with "beyond non state actors" - much of the above appears in Mars One's plans, probably because it's the only way they could even start to appear plausible on a below-shoestring budget. But for a state actor, or at least for the USA or some as-yet-unbuilt alliance of developed countries, Mars is possible with 80s technology, at a viable price. You don't need to multiply the numbers up forever, so long as you resist distracting proposals from those who in reality want funding for a moonbase, or nuclear rockets, or whatever other technologies that promise first you have to solve a difficult, expensive problem, then Mars is cheap and easy.
I am pretty certain that some of the nice cheap ideas mentioned (automated fuel production?) seem simple in a lab on earth but making it work reliably after landing on Mars will take extra effort - even if the basic underlying technology is under grad level right now.
I will still say that the last closest thing humanity tried to Mars landing was Apollo, and 4.4% of federal budget per annum is a good proxy for the cost of a Mars landing. No matter how much tried and true technology you think you can bring in from elsewhere.
Of course I hope I am wrong and we have built most of the basics in Apollo and since. But ...
* "Mars One Finalist Explains Exactly How It‘s Ripping Off Supporters": https://medium.com/matter/mars-one-insider-quits-dangerously...
> No money, no process, no explanation: An insider speaks out on the hopelessly flawed scheme.
* iflscience coverage: http://www.iflscience.com/space/whats-going-mars-one (HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9250474 (81 points, 132 days ago, 23 comments))
If all it does is nudge people from looking forward to a now ubiquitous (in fiction) dystopic future, to again staring at the sky with wonder and possibility, it will be a resounding success. I wonder if that wasn't a large part of the point of the whole undertaking.
Also, regardless of whether the mission is ever launched or not, the article is interesting for being a science fiction story that isn't. I grew up with authors looking for the small human stories in spaceflight and star colonization, and now here's a true personal one, for real... Someone is actually thinking deeply on what it will be like for their own spouse to leave them for MARS. That this can happen now, even if this particular mission ultimately leads nowhere, is incredible.
I do like the paroxysms of noble largesse regarding his wife though. Strangely cuckoldish.