That's less because the numbers (measured inflation and unemployment) actually call for an increase and more to just remind markets that: rates won't stay at zero forever and non-zero rates aren't the end of the world.
Until Detroit and Stockton and Pittsburgh are doing well again, aggressive policy is going to continue to fuel massive growth in SF and the Bay Area.
Tightening is not coming fast nor aggressively.
Or, thinking about the other direction, even restricting ourselves to within California San Francisco and the Bay Area single-handedly pay for a massively disproportionate part of state government services and redistribution. Perhaps it's time to go way back to metropolitan city-states as the proper scale of government.
The problem here is twofold: first, not enough of the money being created is flowing into operating assets; second, the operating assets being purchased with this money aren't productive. This seems like an obvious and natural consequence of a service economy, in which the dominant inputs are labor and real estate. When you pay higher wages, that money has to go somewhere. Some of it goes toward consumption, but most is surplus and gets invested. It has the same problem it had when it was created: it can go toward real estate, operating assets, or portfolio investment. No one wants operating assets in a service economy (because they're not productive), so it ends up in real estate or portfolio investments. That drives up asset prices but does not increase output. Diverting more of this money into operating assets (things that make stuff) would increase output and alleviate the pressure on asset prices. Instead it goes into more wages (paying people more does not make them produce more) and real estate (paying more for land or office space does not make it produce more, either). One of the few bright spots was oil, but the sharp drop in prices has made investment there unattractive as well, and has reduced nominal output at the same time.
The central bankers can control the rate of asset price inflation by making money cheaper or more expensive, but they can't do anything to increase output when the money they create is used primarily to acquire nonproductive assets, or to acquire at higher prices assets that are already being fully utilized. That's why real estate is expensive and output is stagnant, and why fiscal transfers won't solve anything.
Any number of solutions suggest themselves: relaxing regulatory requirements to make manufacturing, utilities, and other non-service industries more productive; fixing China so that surplus cash in the US can be invested in operating assets there instead of domestic real estate; fixing laws that limit the supply of real estate, both to directly reduce the price and to make it less appealing as an investment; investing more tax revenue in infrastructure instead of transfer payments to individuals (where much of it ends up in ... real estate); radical alternatives like breaking up the United States into separate nation-states that are more cohesive internally. I'm sure you can think of others as well.
Detroit and Stockton, less so.
That said, why would the Fed tighten money in the fall when we're so close to an election year? I know they hold longer terms to hopefully avoid political swings, but, it just seems like bad timing.
That said, I'm not entirely convinced Yellen will tighten. She has a reputation as a dove on monetary policy and seems weak to me, overly afraid of the effect her actions will have on the stock market. It wouldn't surprise me if we end up with another 1997 situation, where some temporary economic instability makes the Fed put off tightening or even introduce additional stimulus, and this ignites a speculative bubble that raises prices beyond all reason and then bursts.
(The username is ancient, I've had it on various sites since college, and while I'd love to be thought of as a prophet, my track record isn't that good.)
Plus just in terms of the benchmarks they watch: The headline CPI is currently at a miniscule 0.1%, way below the 2.0% target. The personal-consumption-expenditures (PCE) rate is somewhat higher at 1.3%, but still below the target.
I doubt this will take place. If anything, I think we will see deflation?
These low interest rates have provided gambling money to the 1 percenter's. (I don't want argue--just the way I see it.)
There's a part of me that want to cash in on these low interest rates(part owner in a home in the Bay Area--that people really seem to want.), but my inner voice--wants the fed to raise rates?
Why--the poor/middle class have been left out of the recovery(unless you are in tech.). We get essentially 0 % on our meager cd savings accounts. We can't gamble in this bubbly/momentum/free money stock market?
In essence, what the poor/middle class got out of this recovery is no change in wages, higher rent, higher fees, and 0 percent on our savings. (I do appreciate the access to health insurance though. At least, they(hospitals) can't attach my interest in a home-- if I got sick, and managed to survive? Before Obama Care, I couldn't get health insurance, and always knew I was one judgement away from being homeless. (For those that hate ObamaCare, I would be happy with a 2 million, nationwide--homestead exemption, incorporated into our federal bankruptcy laws? All homes should be judgement proof.)
So Janet--raise the interest rates. The rich boys are just gambling, and laughing! They have so much money they don't know where to put it? The REIT's are buying up too many commercial/residential units; on your free money--I sometimes wonder whether its foreigners(who can buy a home in the U.S., as easily as picking up a phone), or REIT's whom own more?
See, only the banks, and their Best clients are given this free money. I am not seeing the trickle down? We got out of the risk of Depression? It's time to raise rates, and never bailout another bank again.
The problem is that the American middle class needed the bailout that went to the banks and raising interest rates will hurt an already down and out main st. Frankly, we should have just given a massive tax rebate to the middle class. Of course, it's politically infeasible, but they would have actually spent the money in the real economy rather than using it to drive up asset prices.
You're right that it's bad timing in that their rate increase is likely to come shortly before a bust, and therefore will be second-guessed to no end. But that's the case precisely because it's coming far too late. The solution was to normalize rates near 2% during 2013 and then raise them slowly from there as data improved, not to delay further. Normalizing policy sooner would have limited the overheating this article is all about and therefore limited the impacts of the coming bust, perhaps even to a sub-recession level. Further delay will make things much worse.
The election is irrelevant to an independent central bank, and in any case the major elections are (not that you'd know it from reading the MSM) 15 months away.
The best time to raise rates was a long time ago. The next-best time to raise rates is now.
If the SF Bay Area had its own monetary policy, things look a lot different in the local statistics, of course.
In the 70s the big focus was on the wage-price spiral, so hourly wages and prices paid were important indicators. Today there is zero wage inflation going on despite near-full employment, and instead asset prices are in an upward spiral. The preferred indicators should have changed to reflect reality but they haven't. That reality is that outside of a bubble sector there may not be wage growth during the lifetime of anyone now living. When the unions ruled the roost and labor's share of revenue was sky-high, a focus on wages was appropriate. Today, unions are almost gone, wage growth is nonexistent, and virtually all money being created is flowing to owners of capital. I'm not interested in debating whether this is healthy, and neither should the FOMC; that's not its job. But under these conditions, asset prices should be the primary driver of monetary policy, not wages or employment and certainly not the near-useless CPI-U. That driver is screaming slow down!!! and has been for some time now.