Fragments of a wing washed up on Reunion could be wreckage from MH370 | Hacker News Reader

Fragments of a wing washed up on Reunion could be wreckage from MH370

telegraph.co.uk

182 pointscurtis60 comments

Well, the ocean currents in the Indian Ocean seem broadly consistent with the idea that wreckage could have drifted from the presumed crash site to Reunion:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Indian_O...

It only now occurs to me that somebody should have purchased thousands of rubber ducks[1], then traversed the 7th arc[2], tossing one* overboard every mile or so.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Floatees

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_of_Malaysia_Airlines_...

* Appropriately labeled with GPS coordinates of release, of course.

Here's a pdf of a poster where someone did basically that, using computer simulations of course. Their figure 5 shows debris zones [edit: actually garbage patches] that are pretty close to Reunion

http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Charitha_Pattiaratchi/pu...

I'll update if I can find the other refs.

Update: To do this correctly, you'd need winds, and the approx windage of the object. Coast Guard search and rescue simulations take this into account. Wind can push objects on top of the ocean currents.

That's a good point about the windage. I'm skeptical that you can really conclude much about the original impact site from a single piece of debris anyway. On the other hand just being able to narrow the origin down to even one half of the arc might be beneficial at this point.

There are buoys that pretty much accomplish the same purpose... See post #38 here: http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/565335-flaperon-washes-up...

Or try it yourself...

http://adrift.org.au

I was surprised there wasn't a map! I'm not familiar with the current patterns of the Indian ocean, but Reunion seems like a strange place for MH370 wreckage to end up given the projected paths from the pings. In this map, Reunion is just barely visible as the leftmost tiny white dot between the words "Indian Ocean" and Madagascar.

http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/532abdcaeab8ea0464d...

It's had over a year to drift around from wherever the crash occurred.

Yup, I was going by the prevailing winds and current arrow on the linked image. But if you superimpose the actual Indian ocean currents (as linked to by goodcanadian)[0], it does make quite a bit of sense.

0. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Indian_O...

I combined the images and marked Reunion on the map if anyone is interested. Not a cartographer, so might be slightly off.

http://i.imgur.com/o9qhMyo.png

Here's a really cool site that simulates the drift of plastics in the ocean: http://adrift.org.au

When I pick points in the eastern indian ocean, they all end up hitting africa!

No one has confirmed a match. The article doesn't even confirm it.

https://twitter.com/jonostrower

Did you read them? He says he can't confirm it either.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonostrower/status/62654627786247...

At the time I wrote that comment, his most recent tweet was "Okay, now where's the rest of this Boeing 777?". Engineers have confirmed it is a 777 part...the only confirmation now is a serial number match. And from his most recent tweet, I can only gather the only way this isn't MH370 is if a 777 flaperon was parted out to another kind of aircraft? Just haven't been that many 777 lost of the years.

That's not a confirmation that it's from MH370. It's always been highly likely that it was part of MH370 if it was a 777 part but high likelihood != confirmation.

> He said that there was much discussion over a code part of the wreckage: BB670. "The code is not that of a plane number plate, nor that or a serial number on machinery," he wrote.

Interesting. You'd think a code like that on a plane part would be immediately identified.

The headline of the article is exactly what the HN title says. But the sub-headline says "Fragments of a wing washed up in the French island of Reunion could be wreckage from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, says aviation expert" (emphasis added).

The "matches" in the headline is only that it came from the same model (Boeing 777) as MH370 - not from the actual plane.

> The "matches" in the headline is only that it came from the same model (Boeing 777) as MH370 - not from the actual plane.

There have only been three 777 crashes [0], and the other two were firmly on land.

Well, the Asiana one at San Francisco clipped a sea wall but the flaps arrived on land. So unless someone has been throwing major 777 wing components into the sea, this is a pretty compelling match.

* [0] Plus two other hull losses whilst static at airports

The BA crash in London was also on dry land.

They don't have to crash; some 777s have been retired already (Google it). Debris could end up in the sea.

Wikipedia states that all the other 777 crashes have been on land.

Incredibly this news isn't even mentioned on the MA370 wikipedia page. Usually the pages are updated within a few minutes!

This is your chance!

It was actually edited, a mod reverted it saying it's premature to assert it's the MA370: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Malaysia_Airlines...

Well there you go. I'm pretty sure main stream news get incorporated into wiki articles in less than 5 min (if it's big news).

at least one poster on this jetphotos (http://forums.jetphotos.net/showthread.php?t=55779&page=94) aviation safety forum thread is skeptical that it's from a 777.

This forum thread is worth watching as well. Mostly pilots on the forum:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/re...

These images were posted in the above thread purportedly from 777 maintenance manuals. The diagrams bear a very good resemblance to the photos thus far:
http://i.imgur.com/OAw6AOc.jpg http://i.imgur.com/Ti09xEh.jpg

We can't rule out confirmation bias until we're sure that no other aircraft model has a similar-looking part. Boeing could have used similar designs in several different models.
On the other hand, it's pretty rare for large aircraft (or large parts thereof) to go missing, so there aren't a whole lot of places from which this piece of wing could have come.

While there are some professional pilots on airliners.net, that forum is also frequented by many ... how can I put this politely ... armchair pilots. Best to take the discussion with a grain of salt.
In general, airline parts come with serial numbers and other means of identification. It's best to wait a day or two until the origin of the part is ascertained.

True, though there's often worse to be found from the professional journalists on the various three letter news networks.

Yeah, there's a reason they're called a.nutters.

Link to origional blog + images: http://blog-peuravion.fr/2015/07/a-t-on-retrouve-les-premier...
I'm being thick, but could someone show me where the code "BB-670" is actually located? I'm amazed there isn't a closeup photo of it.

Imgur mirror: https://i.imgur.com/DlRPT9j.jpg

Sorry, I obviously wasn't being clear enough. Having looked at that page a couple of times now, which one of those photos shows where this code is printed on the plane fragment?

I think BB670 is a boeing part number - http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_20/config... - see indicated page 17 - BB670 would fit right wing major component.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/30/mh370-aircraft-... Looks like I got it right - even if no one else noticed, this makes me feel pretty good!

If it is confirmed is part of MH370, could be a news for investigations (good or bad depend on many factors). But, please, don't think this will stop conspiracy theory. Why? This is my answer as a conspiracy theorist.
"But I landed the plane on island X, How much it would take me disassemble a piece from the aircraft, hammer it a little bit to simulate an impact, and drop it in the ocean in a place where will be probably washed ashore?"
That's one of the possible answer. Than it could be: "It isn't damaged enough to be in the water for 1 year, they just soaked it and placed on the shore to be found".
I don't believe in the conspiracy theory, but please, don't think this news will debunk them (actually, it is highly improbable an object traveled so many miles, it has been set up :-) )

Let's just hope this will lead to closure for the families. And if we're really lucky the cause will be found and improvements will be made that prevent this from happening again.

This is pretty much a huge part of the plot of Lost

Yup, people believe what they want to believe and then construct stories that reinforce those beliefs.

According to the only comment (currently) on the original blog post, the code part is not that of a boeing 777: http://blog-peuravion.fr/2015/07/a-t-on-retrouve-les-premier...

First, that wing section cannot possibly be from a King Air 200.
Second, the referenced King Air 200 is currently on the tarmac in Las Vegas: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N17VA
That number is a coincidence.

I think that's a red herring. The code "BB-670" coincidentally matches the construction number of a particular Beechcraft airplane built in 1980, tail number N17VA. But the wreckage cannot be from that plane, because it's still intact, and was flying as recently as earlier today! https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N17VA

The Associated Press: "US official: Debris in photo belongs to same type of aircraft as the missing Malaysia plane"
https://twitter.com/AP/status/626505570024079361

AP now seems to be pretty confident about it being from a 777.
"The official says investigators — including a Boeing air safety investigator — have identified the component as a "flaperon" from the trailing edge of a 777 wing."
You can compare to a known 777 flaperon here:
New flaperon: http://www.airliners.net/profile/txspotter (scroll to bottom to see images) Found flaperon: http://imgur.com/a/8cQbm
Keep in mind that trailing edge on the found flaperon appears to be missing...ragged edges. Also, perspective isn't the same across the photos.

It must be so hard to be one of the friends or family of someone who was in MH370. Every now and then you get a new hope that you could get closure, but until now it's just been speculations... Let's hope this one is different.

The families are not hoping for closure - they're hoping their relatives are still alive.
Regions new to passenger aviation cannot fathom that hundreds of people just cease to exist in an air accident.

What do you mean "regions new to passenger aviation"? Both Malaysia and China have domestic air flights operating way before the 1950s.

Malaysia Air was founded in 1947.

If this is match, what might the implications be?

I don't think there would be a whole lot.
It will lend additional support to the theory that the airliner flew south and then crashed into the ocean west of Australia. That's already been a fairly sure bet, based on where it disappeared from radar, the arcs generated by the satellite pings, and the fuel on board, and that's where the ongoing search is taking place. Confirming it is nice, but won't change much. It should put to rest theories about the plane being hijacked or stolen and taken to some remote island or country for use in...whatever. On the other hand, people who believe that stuff will also tend to believe that this debris is a deliberate fake.
I doubt anything can be inferred from the condition of the debris that would help to explain why the plane flew off course and crashed.
It will be nice to have confirmation of the prevailing theory of where the plane crashed, but unfortunately it won't answer a whole lot.

For one, that it wasn't hijacked and taken to a secret location or whatever the insane conspiracy theory was...

Don't you realize the people that believed that theory won't accept this wing as authentic if it's found to be from the plane?

It really doesn't matter if they believe it. It will be convincing enough that the rest of the world no longer needs to pay them any heed.

The thing I can never get past with the Malaysia 370 incident was the super weird flight path the plane took - like it was trying to evade tracking systems.
What a tradgedy.

I think the change in flight path, the disabling of the transponder and the timing (right after leaving Malaysian airspace) all point to human intervention. The question is what kind.
I honestly think at this point it was deliberately crashed into the ocean by a pilot with mental problems. We of course tragically saw another example of this with the Germanwings flight.
The flight at this point has been declared an accident in the absence of any evidence to the contrary. That probably means, among other things, a payout to the pilot's family right? I imagine such a thing might not happen if an investigation determined it was a deliberate act.
I also think the engine "ping" may probably have been a surprise to whoever planned this. I mean imagine where we'd be if we didn't have it? We'd have no idea where to look for it. Even with having a strong theory suggesting a ~10,000km^2 area we haven't found it in a year. What if we were looking for it anywhere in the Indian Ocean? We'd never find it if it was deep enough.
I think I read somewhere that the lack of debris is also surprising and is consistent with the plane hitting the ocean in a dive.

I think this is just BS rationalizing by talking heads because evil suicide muslim pilot makes for good tv ratings.
The path the plane took is known because of tracking systems it was supposedly avoiding.
It flew right over one of the largest/busiest airports in Malaysia. If you were trying to avoid radar would you have done that?
Would you have flown into Indonesian airspace or gone farther out before turning south?
If you wanted to crash the airplane wouldn't you just crash the airplane?
The entire suicide pilot theory [1] has unfortunately jumped the rails and become largely unfalsifiable and indistinguishable from CT, whatever the plane is observed to do is instantly ascribed to the suicide pilots master plan which there is zero real evidence for. Can't find the plane? All part of his master plan.
[1] which is a perfectly good theory and one of the two most likely scenarios.

Does it float?

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