Reuters: Google phone with T-Mobile contract in Jan
reuters.com
reuters.com
I'd say there's basically no chance of this being accurate. Otherwise, I'd buy a case of phones and resell them for parts. They surely cost at least $300 to produce just in parts.
Hmm, the iPhone 3GS teardown is only supposed to be ~ $175. I haven't seen any reason to suspect that the Nexus One is more expensive hardware.
Not to mention that whoever posted this clearly doesn't understand Google Voice (hint: it's not a VoIP endpoint)
Sure it is - you just use POTS to access it right now. I wouldn't get too caught up in product details, when there is no technical reason to prevent it.
Do you have further info on why the phone will cost about $300 to build? In comparison, the iPhone 3GS allegedly has BOM of $178. http://www.isuppli.com/News/Pages/iPhone-3G-S-Carries-178-96...
Curious here: who would buy the "parts"? It'll cost you a lot just to disassemble the phone.
Over a year, everyone with android will probably have supplied Google with hundreds of dollars of mobile search revenue.
If the Gphone sells for a low price, and in very high quantities, they will probably lose for every one sold, but will make much more per user than the $100-200 lost on production.
It also means more sticky users in the long run, popularizing android and turning more people towards google. More apps would be developed, other android phones will presumably sell more (unless the contrary happens, in which case it is the Gphone that sells, which means even more money for Google).
I reckon that over the course of a year (the average length of time at which users change their phones), you'd generate Google more (if not much more) than $100 in explicit and implicit revenue.
I mean, it's one thing if their big competitor here was Microsoft or, in other words, Bing. But iPhone already uses Google by default.
$100 per customer now to prevent them from locking into the iPhone isn't quite so ludicrous if you also have a long-term strategy to get that money back (and then some) using the advertising in the shipped google services.
Besides, you have a war chest for just such things... but instead of spending it on acquisitions you can use it to help buy customers, they become happy with you too.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/03/01/what-an-antitrust-case-...
Just a quick math. Assuming there are about 300mil frequent users of google (i.e more than the occasional search) in the western world. If 4.5 billions came from them, that would be about $15 per user per quarter, so about $60 per year.
Assuming that the google phone user is going to be one of these heavy users, if mobile user are worth $60 per year, then a $100 subsidy doesn't sound that bad, but still, very far fetched.
People would be buying them in droves, and using them in china/india/whatever developing country you think, and there is no way google would be making $60 per year from them.
What I don't believe at all is the 29/mo data plan. There is no way att or t-mobile will put up with this. Remember, the device has to connect to something, otherwise it is just an ipod with wifi.
The other alternative is wimax. Their network would be perfect for something like this, but they are not nation wide yet.
My bet is that android 2.1 will have wimax support.
Mobile WiMAX is still a long ways off.
For that to be an annual number, however, sounds pretty reasonable, especially given Google's asking price for an annual ad-free Google Apps subscription: $50.
Playstation 3, Xbox 360 . . . or are we just talking cell phones here?
Google's source of revenue isn't just selling the phone, similarly Microsoft and Sony's source of revenue wasn't from selling the console. It's all about selling the content and getting people to keep coming back for it.
Perhaps a $99 phone would be absurd for a state of the art smartphone, however making a loss wouldn't be absurd when google is making money off of every search you make, every youtube video you watch and submit.
Get enough smartphones into the hands of users and Google will see their revenues increase from the increased viewing of ads. So they needn't sell the phone at such a high margin to make a profit.
And the ADP1 (an unlocked G1) has relatively modest specs compared to this new phone and costs $400 from Google. I don't think that's because Google is trying to make a mint by sticking it to developers.
Virtually all new HTC smartphones retail in the $400-600 range. I don't think HTC is making a fortune off them.
You can always spot real 'greed' because it's always self-defeating in the end.
The rumor isn't so crazy if you remember that google's most general mission is to get people online and using the web and looking at their ads.
You can guarantee that they know roughly how much ad revenue the average smart-phone using individual brings to them and therefore they could justify bringing a phone to market at cost or even below.
1 http://gigaom.com/2009/12/09/who-is-getting-rich-off-the-iph...
Keep your skepticism shields up, of course, but this sounds like it could happen.
Along with these you get problems of heat dissipation, short battery life, long certification process with carriers around the world and god knows what.
The qestion then becomes how would Google monetize these phone users? Do they listen to our phone calls or text messages and send us even more targeted ads? Are they looking to monetize voice communication they way they did email?
In order to sell at a loss they have to be making it up somewhere.
And this is no different, I don't think. Google sees value in putting accessibility to its services in everyones pockets.
[1] http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=996710
[2] http://gigaom.com/2009/12/09/who-is-getting-rich-off-the-iph...
[3] http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/sep2005/tc200...
You'd have to make quite a bit on those parts to cover the subscription costs.
Every other part of this story is pure conjecture, speculation, and anonymous sources.
I think the Internet is setting itself up for a huge disappointment here.
I heard a rumor last week that Microsoft is going to buy Apple. Should we spend dozens of articles talking about it? I heard another rumor that the movie Avatar is a secret communist plot to take over the world. Is that worth 10 articles too?
Also I'm not sure if someone edited "Rumor:" out of the title but it is currently neither in the HN title or the Reuters article.
Edit: changed from 2:1 odds to 3:1 odds (edit 2: the original edit changed the other side's amount from $50 to $33, though as jfoutz pointed out I'm not thinking of ratios correctly, so I've changed the ratio back to 2:1 and left the $33 as $33).
Edit 3: thanks kw_ for taking the bet! For the record, the main reason I think I'll win is because the iPhone reportedly costs $179 to make[1], I'm assuming the cost of the Google Phone will be similar, and I don't see it making sense for Google to sell it at a loss. I choose the charity Village Outreach, because it is the top-rated charity at the charity-effectiveness-judging organization GiveWell[2].
the : implies the inclusive form 3:1, 3 out of 4 trials in your favor vs 1 out of 4 trials in my favor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds
Also, no bet, but good luck to you and your charity.
I don't know though. That looks a little too big picture for an actual business strategy.
More important question: If this product is for real, and it takes off, are Google's partner carriers prepared to deal with the surge in traffic?
The U.S. badly needs an open (i.e. European-style) cell phone market. Google has (hopefully) realized this and is doing something about it.
[1] http://www.androidguys.com/2009/12/14/reuters-nexus-one-avai...
My desktop is tied to my google account to the same extent that I choose to use google search and email.
It just so happens that Google by their very nature already knows a lot more about me than my current provider (vzw) will ever know. And using a phone on their service will increase Google's knowledge that much more.
I'm honestly not much a smart-phone person. I was an early adopter (Windows CE phones) and ever since then, it's given me a bit of a bad taste in my mouth. Smart-phones have not changed much, really. At their core, most are not as good at being a phone as some of their less-snazzy counterparts. That was my original gripe.
What has changed: ubiquity of mobile-friendly content and increased bandwidth to handsets. Now it doesn't matter much. Smart-phone users are more likely to use their devices for everything BUT talking on the phone.
At any rate, I think the fact that android ties to a google account is a bit of a privacy fail, but IIRC Sidekick does the same thing, roughly (though not to Google). Then the fact that by default the calls will go through GVoice means that Google absolutely knows everyone you call, everyone that calls you, every SMS/MMS. The privacy implications of that are similar to Google setting up its own high-performance DNS (that's been hashed over in a few threads here on YC as well, poke around).
Still, with all that... I'm kinda lusting for this gadget.
* There is no "Google Phone." * HTC, not Google, is the manufacturer. * Currently, no carriers have been announced. * We don't know if it will be available for purchase by the general public. * We don't know when the Nexus One may be made available for sale. * We don't know what it will cost. * The Nexus One, for all intents and purposes, has the basic features of today's high-end smartphones.
More hype-hate here: http://forum.androidcentral.com/htc-nexus-one-opus-one/4182-...
And Droid already has android 2.1 ported to it: http://www.androidcentral.com/android-21-ported-motorola-dro...
wipes a tear
Seriously, VOIP, over US carriers? Yeah, they'll let that happen...
To be fair, their dataplan in the UK is pretty reasonable. Customer support for anyone who isn't on BlackBerry is dreadful.
tmobile's main problem is network coverage (around San Francisco it's quite bad) ...
But its policies and customer service are quite reasonable. From what I gather, at&t has just as bad network coverage but doesn't like you to tether and charges a lot more.
To get measurably better service one needs sprint or verizon, which charge even more than at&t
That said, VoIP is surely coming to cell carriers. The FCC has already indicated that it isn't happy with user agreements from e.g. Verizon that restrict what applications you can run on their network.
"Google will push full VOIP usage on these, meaning no voice/sms plans needed at any carrier. Voice calls will go through Google Voice on Data SIM cards and will provide unlimited free voice calling. And SMS is replaced by unlimited free Gtalk."
No one said Google Voice is only VOIP. I have it, I use it for non-VOIP calls. The article just says they're planning on doing all of the voice calls over IP. Considering there aren't data carriers that have affordable unlimited free calling, that's the only way you could get "unlimited free voice calling".
Specifically, they're saying you don't need a voice plan at all, just data, so they'd be using only VOIP, which Google Voice supports. No where are they saying that GV is only VOIP.
So fine you can use google voice on your old phone, but this is a separate fact from the question of whether the google phone uses data/voip for voice calls.
(on the blackberry google voice app it only supports regular calls, which are all done with forwarding, callbacks, etc.)
The bit about not needing a wireless carrier seems to suggest that.
T-Mobile has two related but different services, which have been called T-Mobile @Home, and T-Mobile HotSpot @Home (now called wifi calling). @home is a home-phone replacement service, which comes UMA-equipped with a POTS phone plug for you to plug a phone into. HotSpot @Home is actually the service the parent is referring to, which can be considered 'femtocell using wifi'.
The way it works is -- your phone needs to connect to T-Mobile's GSM core network one way or another. Normally it connects over the mobile network, but UMA-equipped phones can connect via a VPN (IPsec) connection to T-Mobile. Once connected it speaks the same GSM language as it would speak over the air, so everything works, voicemail, phone calls, text messages, etc.
UMA is actually pretty awesome -- it can hand-off midcall back and forth between wifi and the cell network, unlike AT&T's femtocell solution.
Another HUGE hidden feature: As long as you can connect over wifi, your phone can connect to T-Mobile's network and send/receive calls, text messages, everything, using home area rates. Anywhere in the world. Billing over UMA works just like connecting to the cell network when you're at home.. so if you have unlimited at home you get unlimited UMA, or if you have 500 minutes you get the same 500 minutes.
This works on ANY wifi network, not just T-Mobile's routers. T-Mobile's Hotspot network of Wifi routers is specially configured to let UMA-equipped phones connect to T-Mobile's GSM core without having to pay.
In summary, T-Mobile's UMA service is awesome, but T-Mobile doesn't seem to be able to tell the world how awesome it is.
Sidenote: I used to work for HTC, and I kept trying to convince everyone of how important UMA is. It's a technologically superior solution to femtocells, but for some reason femtocells seem to be 'winning'. They are slightly easier to explain (a miniature cell phone tower!), but they actually really suck in comparison to UMA. It's tragic to see it happen.
UMA-equipped phones support what is called Unscheduled Automatic Power Save Delivery, an extension to wifi which reduces wifi battery consumption both when idling and when on a call to about the same level as a cell connection.
UAPSD (branded as WMM Power Save) is part of the WMM WiFi extensions, which are a part of most consumer wifi routers.