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Comment by slacka | Hacker News Reader

Yes, but if you invested a year ago in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, you'd still have almost doubled your money. 3 months ago, and you'd still be even after today's drop. It's a bad single day drop, but the actual levels are not so bad.

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This misconception keeps being repeated. "Doubled your money". Please tell me: How would you sell? Do you consider stock ownership certificates in illiquid assets against the law to unload as "money"? Sure it has value, but you need to apply a discount ....

If you had invested all of your money then, yes. If - as seems to be the case in many cases for this particular bubble - you'd been so cheered by your gains that you took out a loan to continue playing, you'd be fucked.

That is one of the main issues with such a bubble, the hype when it is going up attract a lot of suckers who are quick to be separated from their money.

The VC market for tech companies basically died after the NASDAQ crash in 2000 for a good 3 to 6 years (I do not know precise times as it was a little before my time.) I think that is because a lot of VC's lost liquidity and couldn't make further on investments in their existing porfolio, there was very little M&A action, and there was no real IPO market. Thus these bubbles, even if they do not wipe everyone out can have serious long term effects for segments of the economy.

This is likely more serious than the NASDAQ because it is the general market rather than a tech specialty market -- but take all this with a grain of salt as I knowing nothing really about specifically China's situation, just making analogies with what happened in North America.

Let's talk again in a couple weeks and I bet you'd wish you'd gotten out today.

If you're actually confident enough to bet, I'm sure there's a service somewhere you could use, and people willing to take the other side of the bet.

You could short an China index ETF (like MCHI).

What a frothy market. Sounds like the NASQAD runup in 2000:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasdaq_Composite#/media/File:N...

The only downside is that it took 15 years for the NASDAQ to recover to that frothy level. I do not know enough about China's markets to make any predictions though.

Note that CSI300 was around 2200 a year ago, peaked around 5400, and has been dropping continuously a couple percent a day down to 3800. Course you read this comment tomorrow, it'll probably close around 3600... repeat until it drops somewhat below normal. The slump will likely last another couple months.

Sounds like an opportunity if you're not already in the market. Of course timing your buys is a game I'm not willing to play personally...

Why is this downvoted?

Welcome to the new HN.

if you invested. if you did not sell early. if you did not double down. Lot of ifs, and you make it sound like we missed out on the deal of a century.

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