Airbnb, My $1B Lesson
arenavc.com
arenavc.com
Of course, it is all counterfactual, but could Airbnb have been as successful had they not joined YC? Recall that PG told them to do things that do not scale - by taking professional photos of rentals in NY - which may have been critical to their early success.
And although PG was initially skeptical of their idea, he quickly changed his thinking about how big Airbnb could become. Revealed in another interesting trail of emails exchanged between PG and Fred Wilson (who also passed on Airbnb). [2]
[1] "In fact, when we funded Airbnb, we thought it was too crazy. We couldn't believe large numbers of people would want to stay in other people's places"
http://www.paulgraham.com/founders.html
[2] http://www.paulgraham.com/airbnb.html
http://avc.com/2011/03/airbnb/
Edit: spelling
These guys had a good idea, some luck, and were able to execute. I doubt that the "brand" of their money or broad aphorisms from VCs had much to do with any of it.
For all intents and purposes, money is money. There's an element of "tech celebrity" in the Valley, and big-name VCs are part of that. In reality, successful businesses around the country are built, every day, by hard-working entrepreneurs who bootstrap it (because their business is making money) or get funding my more traditional means. I don't think VCs have any "secret sauce" for success.
The biggest challenge for them was to find people willing to use their platform to rent their apartment to strangers.
in the end we will never really know, but it wasnt the "good idea" part that made them successful.
The world is more than just about idea, luck, and connections.
Just by looking at the websites of airbnb and frbo will tell you a ton.
[1] Paige's post is actually very nuanced about how much product-market fit he saw in AirBnB, and how much he wanted to invest because of the market and team. But he clearly gave them more credit on "making something people want" than YC.
I don't understand why anyone would have thought this at that time unless they did zero research.
VRBO had been effectively doing that for 13 years by the time Airbnb came along, and was (and is) widely used. Yes, Airbnb's focus is a bit different of a market segment, but clearly their success indicated that large numbers of people were willing to rent someone else's place directly from them in spite of the potential concerns.
1. A Hotel disruptor - letting people crash on your couch or empty bedroom. This is the original idea as per pitch deck.
2. Holiday Rental / VRBO / HomesAway competitor - renting out an entire home for a period shorter than a 6 month-lease
Would be interesting to see where most of the revenue actually comes from. My guess would be that the traditional model of holiday lets (#2) brings in the vast majority of revenue, whilst the original idea was used as a beachhead / marketing ploy.
It's so important that YC went through the effort to codify the process: http://www.ycombinator.com/handshake/
Example: When I met Peter (Contextlogic now known as Wish) I wrote him a physical check within a day (pretty sure it was his first) as I planned to take whatever terms he ended up negotiating. And then I immediately started brining in other investors, introductions to engineers, etc
So don't take this post as a "Brian screwed me" / the screwing was all self inflicted and a very important lesson
But those who aren't willing to pull the trigger quick enough miss the great deals.
It also sounds fairly intuitive when you verbalize it: the faster you can update your (presumably sound) strategy to new information, the "better" you are likely to do compared to someone who responds to changing information at a slower rate.
He's known for being bold and writing checks on a first meeting. Why didn't he write a check to Airbnb after months of haggling? YC, or any other investor, was free to come along and close the deal at any moment. The way an investor claims a deal is with their checkbook (or a signed term sheet). He learned his lesson and realizes his mistake. Airbnb did nothing wrong.
a) They wouldn't have turned around for advice from YC
b) YC deciding to come over the top once hearing the news
I agree with your assessment that YC was probably trying to keep dumb money out of the cap table but I also hypothesize they originally underestimated the team and once they saw they were actually able to put a TS together that was proof enough their original calculus was wrong and they circled back around. I don't think you were getting this deal either way.
Is it prudent though? I understand the need for expediency, but surely you need to do some due diligence?
I think the comments have gone off on a tangent focusing on whether you getting cut out of the deal was ethical (whereas the blog post was just a flat out interesting story to read about). But at least the way your post reads, you definitely got screwed out of the deal. Sure, nothing is done until things are signed, but as many investors have told me "my reputation is everything". Seems like it should go both ways. This certainly doesn't reflect positively on the founders.
Nothing's done until the papers are signed. This goes for all things in life, too, from investing to renting apartments. If you don't have a signed piece of paper, you have no deal.
In any case, I apparently place too high a premium on paperwork. In another comment thread on this story, someone pointed out that the remedy for breach of contract is to unwind the wrong party's situation to the position they were in before the contract was signed. In this case, until the check has been deposited and spent, it's trivial to tear up the paperwork.
Now, this particular VC has only raised about 800mm, so I don't know if that makes them a Tier-1 VC, but it still made me realize that you don't ever know until the money is in the bank account.
Thankfully, Foundation Capital (an awesome Tier-1 VC), stepped up and kept us running/covered payroll and rent, until we found someone else to get money from.
I'm curious how this works, legally. If they make the offer and you sign the papers, doesn't that legally obligate them to follow through on their offer?
Really, the moral obligation to consummate a deal is only policed by reputation. And that is not often discussed out loud (see, for example, how parent describes the deal but doesn't name the last-minute-back-out VC).
(Plus there are whole other big cans of worms for discussing investor reputation online "out loud" -- it CAN be done and there is a lot of truth out there, but a ton of noise. The real scoop is generally spoken 1:1 over the phone, or over coffee in person.)
Interestingly, the whole gist of TFA is that investors should move fast once they have conviction. But the more they do that (instead of "front-loading" diligence and negotiation), the more like it is that you get last-minute backing out (or perceived backing out).
The way the VC firm I'm affiliated with has always handled it is to "front-load" diligence, and treat a signed term sheet as if it were very nearly binding and final. I think we've pulled ~ 2 signed term sheets, out of almost 100 new deals over the years.
Point is, you can't have your cake (enjoy super-fast handshake commitments without the diligence that is "due") and eat it too (enjoy high certainty of closing on those commitments).
So at the moment you sign the paper, but don't hand over money or burn other bridges or whatever, it is trivial to tear up the paper.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offer_and_acceptance
IANAL, TINLA.
I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume that the investor already possessed emails saying "Let's do this" with numbers in it. Is that different than a signed term sheet? You bet -- it's not legally binding! But it also meets all the requirements of the gentleman's agreement -- aka YC Handshake protocol:
1. The investor says “I’m in for [offer].”
2. The startup says “Ok, you’re in for [offer].”
3. The startup sends the investor an email or text message saying “This is to confirm you’re in for [offer].”
4. The investor replies yes.
On the tangent of the protocol as the protocol, I also note that it is meant to be exclusive. That is, you don't construct it by piecing together the individual events -- it's written as a once off 2-phase transaction with no other intervening steps to prevent shenanigans and mistakes.
All the startup has done is repeat verbatim what the investor said. In this situation the startup has signaled receipt of the investor's offer and has not signaled intent to ratify or otherwise accept.
>1. The investor says “I’m in for [offer].”
>2. The startup says “Ok, you’re in for [offer].”
You'll notice that the startup has only repeated back what the investor said, correcting for the inverted subject-verb and adding a customary signal opening. The startup has confirmed receipt of the investor's signal.
>3. The startup sends the investor an email or text message saying “This is to confirm you’re in for [offer].”
The startup confirms receipt on a secondary channel.
>4. The investor replies yes.
Waiting on communication from startup.
If you follow sports at all, you know what I'm talking about.
edit:http://www.tmz.com/2015/07/09/deandre-jordan-clippers-may-ha...
Possibly this? Interesting term in there re: handshakes, called "promissory estoppel".
The timeline is weird.
1. https://medium.com/@bchesky/7-rejections-7d894cbaa084
2. https://arenavc.com/2015/07/airbnb-my-1-billion-lesson/
3. http://www.quora.com/How-much-money-did-Airbnb-raise-What-is...
And that goes back to one of the lessons from my post. I realized that for founders and investors to take me seriously and not lose deals I had to prove myself, build a positive brand by helping founders and getting smarter about this new world I was operating in.
Do you think YC told AirBnB "We won't accept you on our programme if you take investment from Paige", or do you reckon it was AirBnB's decision to join the YC programme instead of taking your investment?
(a) Based on your story, Airbnb got accepted into YC early (or at least received a strong enough signal that they would be accepted). I don't think that's inconsistent with Airbnb or YC's account, I'd just never heard about it before (amidst a ton of lore about Airbnb's early days at YC).
(b) Airbnb had the foresight to see that YC's deal was better than yours. This would actually have been non-obvious in 2008: Dropbox was only a year old, Stripe didn't exist yet, and YC's best-known successes at the time would have been Heroku and Reddit. Not to mention the fact that you were offering them 10x the cash at 10x the valuation.
So it is "weird" in the way that history is kind of weird. I don't doubt your version of events though, and I appreciate you sharing it.
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As to posting details of the deal I've held off on this for years as I never wanted to hurt them and I don't see any way these early numbers are going to impact Airbnb. The specific point was to (1) demonstrate that the metrics many investors look for at this stage are meaningless and reinforce that founders working in the right Cardinal direction is what's important (at least to me).
The other details (events, feature list, budget) are documents we were brainstorming on and I wanted to see (1) how they think and (2) how fast they think. The point about the bugs, intros, etc isn't to demonstrate that I added meaningful value. Instead these docs demonstrate tte quality of the founders and their focus and planning.
As for "bossing" people around you're missing the context of this interaction. If you and I are sitting down figuring out your budget, user acquisition and product am I bossing you around when I ask to see results? I'll admit I'm demanding but i certainly don't believe in bossing founders around. If I have to boss you around then I'm walking away from the deal - I like to back founders who's own internal demands and expectations are higher than my own.
Either way appreciate all the thoughts here. I've waited seven years to start discussing startups / funding etc and you'll find that this and future posts will often focus on founder qualities.
I think the key insight that a lot of people may miss in your post is about timing - the first email your post quoted from Brian said they wanted to close $100K to operate "for the next 4 months", so a closing time 6 weeks later (1.5 months into that period) is quite late in that process. Early stage companies are radically underfunded and at times running on vapors. If you hadn't closed in time and the company had died, you never would have written about "the time you killed a $25 billion company* by not investing in time when you were the only investor who they could still count on". You would have long-since forgotten them.
So the lesson to investors is to cut the check! You may not have another opportunity.
Gather ye rosebuds while ye may,
Old Time is still a-flying;
And this same deal that smiles today
To-morrow will be dying.I always negotiated in good faith with them and spent time to understand their needs. Look at the budgets: When you look at that budget with handwritten notes that's my writing - I was concerned they weren't raising enough and I asked them to take more money to get more runway AND i agree to increase the valuation to account for the dilution.
As far as the "six weeks goes" that was from the first day we met until the day I had my lawyers at Greenberg Traurig negotiate docs with their counsel at Fenwick. Part of the delay was my own stupidity; I had my lawyers drafting custom docs (which I paid for completely out of pocket and didn't push into the closing costs). Brian has rightly sent me standard YC docs to use but I was too ignorant to even know what those docs were. And then I spent two weeks negotiating terms and final valuation.
The other complication is Brian wanted me to meet with another angel he wanted to bring into the round (I left this out of the post as I didn't want to embarrass this angel; we actually became pretty right friends after all this). So this other guy and I met up a couple times before he decided he wouldn't do the deal and that delayed us as well.
But I was always direct on my commitment to Brian and once we agreed to terms I immediately had my lawyers move to closing quickly.
I just had a similar situation with a company we committed to fund this year. We were coleading the deal with another VC; this other VC ended up in a protracted (2 months) negotiation of docs. We (Arena) couldn't fund our half of the deal until docs were finalized with this other VC. So the founder calls me up because he's now 3 weeks away from missing payroll and may have to slow down user acq that's going great and He's obviously worried that if this seed round fails the company is dead. And I told him not to stress - I offered him a $250k personal loan to his company at the lowest simple interest rate and he didn't have to secure it or offer me any warrants or incentives. I peronsally funded his company two days later and we're all good.
My point being - I do understand the consequences of being a bad investor because I always try to imagine myself in the founders shoes. I was in that spot years ago and I know how vulnerable it can feel. Even though I wasn't a well educated investor when I was doing the Airbnb deal I never took any action that would have harmed their potential.
this makes it sound like investors simply crawl out of bed one day and say something uncomplicated like "mm I feel like giving money away to some startup for breakfast"
Reality: $500M in revenue in 2014
Moral: Even the most successful startups don't hit their seed-stage revenue projections :)
You don't do handshake deals with people whose fundamental business model is "cutting corners wherever you can sneak away with it"
This is how Visa works https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4396414 (900+ points 3 years ago)
"Docs were finished, a "closing dinner" was had, a handshake was made on the deal, and then the investor didn't sign"
I make deals and negotiate all the time and I've negotiated thousands of times.
It's a very good sign when you have a verbal agreement but you're a fool if you think that's a finished deal.
It's the quick and the dead - if people are serious about a deal then they need to move quickly, wrap it up and sign it.
If you are selling something (yourself, your company, shares in your company), you should ALWAYS continue negotiations and keep talking to interested parties until one of them signs.
The tardy buyers/investors/employers who think they can stretch it out and take their time miss out, that's all - and it's important to understand that the mistake is theirs for not signing, it is not the seller being unethical. And if you are the sort of person who says "I made a verbal deal and my word is my bond.", then you might get played by people who will take advantage of that and not sign, perhaps hoping for more information, more favorable conditions, a better deal to come along. They won't hesitate to drop the verbal deal if it suits them.
Every negotiation has a number of properties and variables. One of the absolutely key properties is the time profile. If you do any negotiating then you need to understand how to play the time profile. You can say to buyers "I'm offering something good here but only for X period of time." Or "I'm happy to agree to these terms but only for two weeks and everything is back on the table after that." Or "Great that we have a verbal deal, you need to understand I'll be talking to others until I have a signature so if you are interested then you'd better move quick." Or "If you pay the agreed amount on time then I'll give you a guarantee on our services, pay it late, no guarantee", or "OK happy to go with this investment deal, but I want the cash to hit the account by the 8th August and the deal is off if it's late."
Time profile is one of the most interesting and valuable aspects of any negotiation and can completely change the true value of the deal.
If you like it then you'd better put a ring on it.
About 11 years ago I did a short stint as a customer support bloke for a telco here in Australia. Recorded verbal contracts were the new fashion, and made life easier for switching phone companies. But every 'verbal' recording started with boilerplate stating that this was a recorded conversation, and constituted a contract. The content was specific points, like in a paper document. It was not a casual conversation. Things may have changed here in the meantime, but that's the way it was then.
I also think that a unilateral audio recording wouldn't stand in a lot of places, given that it's illegal in some places to record a private conversation without informing the other party.
Note, that's 100% true (clarifications may stand, IANAL), but I wouldn't be surprised if the VC took steps to ensure no deal was done until the paper was signed.
This is the general principle in Common Law taught to law students in Contracts 100, but it really depends on the subject of contract and jurisdiction.
For example, many jurisdictions have legislation requiring all real property sales to be in writing. Many others require certain financial instruments or transactions to be in writing. And so on.
So while a verbal agreement may raise questions of honour and sometimes equity ("equity" as in the body of law, not the moral concept), it can often be considered non-contractual.
IANAL, TINLA.
exactly, you see this with recruitment.. when a company meets the right candidate they move very fast...
Anytime I did interviews, I had a 24 hr deadline for me to mentally strike out a option. Everytime I got a job, I was contacted almost within an 1-2 hr of doing the interview.
Any delays means they other party has other good options, same applies IMO here as well..
So in this case unless they sign on the dotted line pronto and give a cheque, things are still up in the air
He concluded that he needs to move faster on the big picture, rather than haggling the correct protocol for picking of nits.
I sense the founders used the VC as leverage. They had a closing dinner the night before and shook on it. The VC was reasonable to expect the paperwork to be finalised the next day.
YC changing their mind at the very next day sounds very convenient...
Edit: I seem to have touched a nerve, but I don't know what it is. Can someone explain what I said that caused annoyance? I have the usual embarrassing secret obsession with made up internet points.
But they way you worded it seems to suggest that the VC wasn't telling the truth. At this stage, he has the benefit of the doubt.
False memory is a thing and many people refuse to accept that it could happen to them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24286258
(There was a radio programme this week that demonstrated the process of giving someone a false memory. I would post a link but First Great Western (the train I'm on) blocks a bunch of BBC website.)
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(Note: I'm not being facetious. I'm genuinely curious)
I get that a deal isn't final until it's in writing (i.e. signed), but whatever happened to integrity?
My basic understanding is that deals are complete when signed off. Where's the lack of integrity in that?
Integrity: "I like your offer a lot" (but then something actually changed, and I don't sign).
Lack of Integrity: "I'm in." (but then I don't sign.)
I think that integrity is essential in building trust, which is important in any kind of business relationship.
The deal isn't done until the money is in the bank
edit: actually arenavc posted the deck https://arenavc.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/airbnb-origin... and much more https://arenavc.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/AirbnbEventSc... https://arenavc.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Airbnb-Events...
Any middle ground between "highly valuable" and "disaster"?
If you take that money you've been saving and invest it in something more conventional, it won't explode 100x overnight but you'll definitely get somewhere.
Investing in a startup, with the bulk of your savings, is like being a passenger on that airplane.
Also high risk -> high reward, right? 10x in 7 years can be game changing.
Maybe turning this around will help you see how ineffectual this is:
If you are a naive investor desperate to put all of your small stake into one company and I am an early stage startup, why would I want your money if I can have smart money with a good network instead?
And if I can't have that, if I'm desperate for the investment, well your odds just got much, much worse.
Here's the story in one sentence: an angel recognized Airbnb's potential but never got the deal in writing so they used it as leverage for a better offer.
Paige invested in Lyft, Twitter and Postmates. He's doing fine and learned from this.
Thanks for sharing this Paige. Excellent write up and valuable lessons learned.
* Within the first weeks first revenue
* Within 4 months numbers that by themselves each look promising (40-60% response rate although crap product, good revenue per night, good nights booked, etc)
Personally i dont expect any of those metrics nowadays to be further away than 1.5-2x better
The "only" big q's left is:
* is the market big enough it's worth scaling the quantity
* is that team capable of doing it
I feel like i am missing something here (obviously i judge from hindsight) but what about this numbers is "bad metrics"?
That's supposed to be considered a bummer :).
Hey, at least you still have your money !
In fact, who knows, maybe with your investment, Airbnb wouldn't have turned out that great after all.
Maybe you would have lost your money, which would have reduced your reputation and you would have ruminated over it, got depressed, separated, started using drugs and drinking, get arrested for a drunk mishap, resisting arrest and attacking an officer with a tennis ball, then jail time... the wheel of misfortune once set in motion is hard to stop :).
> On a tactical level, I repeat this creative destruction almost weekly as I analyze an individual deal; on an operational level I do it every few months (re-evaluating my deal flow, co-investor network, deal structures, etc.); at a strategic level I sit down almost every year and question my overall philosophy on founders, theses, markets, etc.
[shorter: I don't only regret my mistakes but also try to learn from them.]
Otherwise a well-told story. Thanks.
In this case these emails and documents make ME look like a novice investor and speak highly of the Airbnb founders. I have no problem exposing my own failures and mistakes but I'd never expose yours unless you were cool with it.
This event was a very important lesson for me and made me a better investor. Most people commenting here are thinking short-term; but the consequence of this Airbnb deal was critical to my development. I learned to move fast and invested a great deal of time and energy into becoming a better investor.
Someday, I hope to join the ranks of VCs but I figure I need to figure things out first.
YC is at the center of a large network of investors, startups and bloggers and somehow its investment decisions ultimately influence the habits of technology consumers in general.
I think it was a lose-lose situation for the author.
Is every YC company successful?
You must answer yes to both to believe:
>If YC hadn't invested, nobody would have ever heard of AirBnb.