I agree with you. Being first (or even early) to market is obviously an advantage, but it's neither necessary nor sufficient for success, as countless examples show. "The second mouse gets the cheese."

In a market with rapid growth and technological change, sometimes it can even damage your prospects. For example, MySpace found themselves dominating the market while it was still small, and for whatever reason, wasted the opportunity. Facebook learned from their mistakes and took control of the market MySpace had helped to create.