Just Got Out of Prison. Now What?
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
I'm pretty sure the rules don't apply to official, especially court-ordered, encounters. Many parolees are required to go to AA or anger management classes, and those are full of other people in the same predicament. The same applies to halfway housing.
I imagine that since this ride was under the control of an official non-profit, the contact was approved.
I'm not a fan of the rules limiting free association and I think it should be considered a violation of civil liberties. I don't know if it's ever been challenged in the courts.
I'm not snarking, I'm asking what the difference would be.
If you wish to be appalled, read this [1] discussing parole boards. For the same rationale as above, they are given incredibly wide latitude with very little review, and often no disclosure, behind their decisions.
[1] https://www.themarshallproject.org/2015/07/10/life-without-p...
I understand the rule if the felon belonged to a gang Before being incarcerated. Keep the stipulation. The rest of the guys/girls should be allowed to associate with other ex-felons.
Sometimes, those of us who are not in denial, are one mistake, at one wild/desperate period in our lives of racking up a felony? Why make it so difficult for ex-felons to succed after being let lose? I just don't get it. No wonder some of these guys want to go back to prison--institutionalized--they term it? No, they just don't want to die on the streets of homelessness! I had a 65 year old ex-felon as a friend for years. His felon was 45 years ago. He had a slight disability(enough to notice), and for years he collected disability. Some young doctor decided to not renew his disability claim. He told me, "I will commit a nonviolent crime in order to keep a roof over my head!". I talked him out of it, and we got a lawyer to reaffirm his disability claim.
(Ironic side story. I came home today with a note on my door from the U.S. Office of personnel management federal investigation service. My neighbor is applying for a security clearance? This neighbor is the last person I would trust with anything--let alone a security clearance. No he's not a felon, but should be--he's white, and got lucky in his shady business dealings. Will I talk to a dective--No--I just don't care anymore. The felons, I have known, I trust--crazy--huh?
One thing the article doesn't mention is that California's three strikes law was not the result of Corrections Corporation of America donating a bunch of money to influential state senators. It was voted-in based on public referendum with 71% support. So was Washington's, with even more public support.
You can't get 70%+ of Americans to agree on anything, except apparently putting people in prison for life for potentially non-violent felonies.
Now, not teaching people about the outside world after they have been in jail for 20 years is pretty dumb. These people who have been locked for a while need mentor and class on how the outside world works.
totalSentence = firstTimeOffenderSentence * (1 + numberOfPriors)If we just forget about the murder thing, why not "two strikes you're out" then? Because baseball?
I don't know where you got "more than half of the 20 are first-timers." That is simply impossible: by definition, no one is in the 20% if they are a first-timer.
You can read more about the Pareto Principle here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
From Wikipedia:
"The Pareto principle (also known as the 80–20 rule, the law of the vital few, and the principle of factor sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes."
This has been proven to apply to crime. Roughly 80% of crimes are committed by 20% of the people who break the law.
"You needed to claim something like "the vast majority of murderers have non-murder priors""
I am making a claim about whether someone should get a relatively light sentence for the given crime, versus whether someone should get a severe sentence for the given crime. I am not making any claims about which specific sentence applies to which specific crime. My claim applies to all categories of crime, from jaywalking to murder.
Your point about murder is irrelevant to the point I was making. However, I have noticed that when I mention "murder" people assume I must mean first degree murder, even though less than 20% of all murders are first degree. What's much more common is 3rd degree murder, such as drunk driving, or driving while sleepy, or over confidence in one's ability to control a camp fire at a camp grounds, or failure to put out a cigarette properly, or any of the hundreds of other small accidents that people can do that then leads to someone else's death, and which an aggressive district attorney will treat as 3rd degree murder.
> A roughly Pareto law (80/20) applies to criminals.
Okay, criminals can be divided into groups 80 and 20.
> The majority of all murders are done by a small group.
Presumably, since it's the next sentence, the murders are done by group 20.
> Meanwhile, the majority of all murderers never commit another crime.
[^] The majority of group 20 commits only one offense. (Unless of course you state that murderers have a non-murder prior, which was the clarification you refuted.)
> Jail sentences should be relatively light for the 80 and fairly severe for the 20.
[+] The non-murderers in 80 should get light sentences and murderers in 20 should get severe sentences.
> That means first-time offenders should get minimal sentences, but repeat offenders should get long prison terms.
Because of the statement marked [^], the majority of murderers should get minimal sentences, which conflicts with the statement marked [+], unless you state that all murderers have a non-murder prior.
Edit: actually 1991 was a local maxima. It was exceeded by a bit in the early 80s. Still though these laws were definitely passed when crime was quite high.
Granted, now we have the benefit of hindsight and statistics to see how effective those have been. Getting rid of several heads of crime rings? Exceptionally well. Just watch Gangsters: America's Most Evil from A&E. Every single person came from that era. How well has it worked on drugs in general or crime rates? That's much more debatable.
EDIT: typo
"Those other guys aren't my problem" is a general consensus and "those other guys who got through our great court system and were found guilty" is a huge barrier to overcome for most people, even though it is a bogus sentiment for a ton of reasons.
And to be fair, a lot of research was showing that repeat offenders were a problem for society, it has been shown that the harshness of the prison system and the after effects are why, but if you don't know that link then saying "well they keep doing it so lets take care of the problem" while simultaneously discouraging repeat offense makes sense. Again underlying those things is falsehoods and three-strikes is a terrible idea, but it doesn't take much thought to see why it became so popular.
I think the best way to get serious reform is to point out the relationship between crime and punishment has gotten a bit too loose, and that it's a matter of basic justice to expect the punishment to fit the crime.
(Just playing a little root-cause-analysis here.)
In 1994, the industry was tiny, and California voted-in a draconian three strikes law by a 71% margin. In 2012, the industry was booming, with CCA clearing hundreds of millions a year in revenue, and Californians vote to pare back their three law with a similar 69% margin.
To me, your implied conclusion is totally divorced from reality. Rather, the obvious conclusion is that Californians circa 2012 simply came from a less heartless and bloodthirsty generation than Californians circa 1994.
1 - there really was (an almost certainly environmental lead-triggered) crime wave that is finally mostly over. Also mix in crack and other drugs.
2 - there was the advent of 24x7 tv news, and when you need something to fill that air time, scary black man randomly killing white people suits perfectly. Even though that is a tiny minority of murders.
3 - people don't understand type 1 and type 2 error: every time a person is set free, some tiny fraction will recidivate (baring incarceration until death.) Mix this in with #2, and you see how sentences increase monotonously.
4 - republicans discover racism motivates voters. See, eg, the Willie Horton commercials [1].
And yes, the Willie Horton commercials as run by Lee Atwater were indeed racist.
Lee Atwater's famous quote is
You start out in 1954 by saying, “Nigger, nigger, nigger.” By 1968 you can’t
say “nigger”—that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced
busing, states’ rights, and all that stuff, and you’re getting so abstract.
Guess who was running George HW Bush' campaign? Republicans picked up the Horton issue after Dukakis clinched the
nomination. In June 1988, Republican candidate George H.W. Bush seized on
the Horton case, bringing it up repeatedly in campaign speeches. Bush's
campaign manager, Lee Atwater, said "By the time we're finished, they're
going to wonder whether Willie Horton is Dukakis' running mate." [1]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Horton"But Reagan did not have to do a southern strategy for two reasons. Number one, race was not a dominant issue. And number two, the mainstream issues in this campaign had been, quote, southern issues since way back in the sixties. So Reagan goes out and campaigns on the issues of economics and of national defense. The whole campaign was devoid of any kind of racism, any kind of reference. And I'll tell you another thing you all need to think about, that even surprised me, is the lack of interest, really, the lack of knowledge right now in the South among white voters about the Voting Rights Act."
The problem Democrats have when discussing crime is they don't realize people on the other side don't see life through a racial prism, so to us Willie Horton was about crime and not about race.
viz your (implied) claim the Willie Horton ad wasn't racist, well, people on the other side don't see life through a racial prism because they're either racist themselves or sufficiently privileged they can ignore it. See the confederate flag debates. In reality, there's abundant evidence everywhere you look. For one of many examples, see the weird way black people randomly just somehow up and die in police custody. Or Nate Silver:
“If you’re a white person your chance of being murdered every year is 2.5
out of 10,000," he told Halper. "If you’re a black person it’s 19.4, so
almost eight times higher." [1 for quote, 2 for data]
[1] http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/nate-silver-black-amer...[2] http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/black-americans-are-kille...
Not the way I read it at all. He's just preening.
>viz your (implied) claim the Willie Horton ad wasn't racist, well, people on the other side don't see life through a racial prism because they're either racist themselves or sufficiently privileged they can ignore it.
Ah, yes, the old infinitely malleable "sufficiently privileged". Let me provide another possibility: People on the other side don't see things through a racial prism because they treat other people as individuals, and it's just not natural for us to treat people as part of a different, larger organism.
I'm not sure why you threw in the Nate Silver quote, or why you didn't bother to go to the data instead of relying on someone to tldr it for you.
https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/...
The fact is black guys get murdered by other black guys. What does this have to do with the discussion? If the makers of the Willie Horton ads were really playing the race angle they would have found someone who murdered a black guy.
> Questioner: But the fact is, isn't it, that Reagan does get to the Wallace voter and to the racist side of the Wallace voter by doing away with legal services, by cutting down on food stamps?
> Atwater: You start out in 1954 by saying, "Nigger, nigger, nigger." By 1968 you can't say "nigger"—that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me—because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "Nigger, nigger."
He's talking about the 1980 campaign run by the Republicans here, and it absolutely about appealing to racist voters, and getting them to vote for you, without appearing racist yourself. But part of it is pledges to support policies that will disproportionately affect blacks rather than whites, and how to code the rhetoric in such a way that the message will get across without being obvious enough to create a scandal. That's what he means when he says "the whole campaign was devoid of any kind of racism, any kind of reference" - the emphasis there is on reference.
You might think you don't see life through a racial prism, but the Republican party of the eighties most definitely did, and they exploited it.
>You might think you don't see life through a racial prism, but the Republican party of the eighties most definitely did, and they exploited it.
No they didn't. For Republicans Willie Horton was a story about a guy who killed someone on a weekend furlough. Only for Democrats was it about a black guy who killed someone on a weekend furlough.
You act as though it could have only been a racial issue if the Republicans had explicitly made it so, which is not how it works, and that by calling them out on it, Democrats made it into a racial issue, which is laughably disingenuous. Considering the obsession that Lee Atwater had with racial politics, and in light of the fact that he was a big part of how the Republicans ran campaigns in the 80s (not to mention that you still see echoes of those strategies even today), I guess you are certainly, totally, and kind of embarrassingly wrong, actually.
Rather than laughably disingenuous, that's exactly the case, though it's pretty silly to characterize cynical demagoguery as "calling them out".
Maybe you should read the entire thread. The only way you could hold this position is to ignore the evidence to the contrary and rely entirely on your Democrat secret racial code word decoder ring. You know only Democrats have those, right?
The fact remains that Dukakis supported a program that caused a woman to be raped. Shouldn't he have to defend his decisions?
In the US the recidivism rate is over 60%. That's a gigantic fraction.
see eg http://nj.gov/corrections/pdf/REU/Recidivism_Among_Homicide_...
I meant the phrase "tiny fraction" in light of the discussion of T1 and T2 errors: no matter what rule is made, unless you incarcerate all felons until death, some fraction will recidivate. How to correctly weigh type 1 errors is difficult.
(I'm a fan of "five whys" analysis.)
> In the wake of the murder, politicians in California and other U.S. states supported three strikes laws, and California's Three Strikes act was signed into law on March 8, 1994.[9]
I think Proposition 8 of California is another example; there was a lot of money involved from big players. It's not necessarily a corporation, but I wouldn't say these things are exactly grassroots.
"That is what is so perplexing about power-law homeless policy. From an economic perspective the approach makes perfect sense. But from a moral perspective it doesn’t seem fair. Thousands of people in the Denver area no doubt live day to day, work two or three jobs, and are eminently deserving of a helping hand—and no one offers them the key to a new apartment. Yet that’s just what the guy screaming obscenities and swigging Dr. Tich gets. When the welfare mom’s time on public assistance runs out, we cut her off. Yet when the homeless man trashes his apartment we give him another. Social benefits are supposed to have some kind of moral justification. We give them to widows and disabled veterans and poor mothers with small children. Giving the homeless guy passed out on the sidewalk an apartment has a different rationale. It’s simply about efficiency."
http://gladwell.com/million-dollar-murray/
EDIT: Changed "much of the grumbling" to "some"
The Austerians' blindness to consequences will provoke a Greek exit from the Euro, and is turning many europeists in many other countries (me included) into euroskeptics.
Same with many other rifts between ideology and evidence in policy. Abstinence-based sex education comes to mind. There are probably many others.
I've changed "much" to "some" to weaken my claim re: how much disagreement about that is going on this thread. There is certainly some: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9899924
We could try more intervention, prevention, and while in, preparation to exit and productivity the whole time. We'd have fewer people in, those who went in would come out more productive and ready.
Of course some people are just "bad" incurable, but that number should be far reduced. Most cons should not be treated as pariahs indefinitely, again, with some exceptions. But we should make a good effort to rehabilitate, perhaps, in addition to punishment. Punishment being paramount to victims but rehabilitation being paramount to society.
It's only dollars cheaper in the short term, and even then only if one takes a very narrow view of the issue(s).
Helping people reintegrate into society can cut recidivism rates, as exemplified by Michigan's Prisoner Re-entry Program [0], which lowered the recidivism rate from 43.5% to 29% [1] and shrunk the state's prison population by 12% [2]. "If states could reduce their recidivism rates by just 10 percent, they could save more than $635 million combined in one year alone in averted prison costs." [2]
Of course these programs cost money... but the Michigan program receives $12-20 million of funding per year, and has saved the state "hundreds of millions of dollars." [3]
And there would also be savings in the areas of law enforcement, property damage, etc...
[0] http://www.bhpi.org/?id=54&sid=1
[1] http://michiganradio.org/term/michigan-prisoner-re-entry-pro...
[2] http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/00...
[3] http://michiganradio.org/post/snyder-administration-cut-prog...
For the first category it does not matter what you do, but for the second we should be putting every effort into making sure they will be released a better person. Punish the first group as much as your morals think is appropriate, but punishing the second is counterproductive.
I am not in a closet or a holy roller either; nor are any of my friends or family. I live in a mid-sized city and grew up middle-class, became poor when out on my own, and am now well off.
I would never put myself in such a situation to shame myself or my family or harm others. But I was brought up that way.
I think prison can serve to change someones environment to such levels that they are willing to change themselves. Maybe not 30 years of prison though.
Or the personal responsibility not to continually push for the hardest sentences you can because it'll help your career?
Or the personal responsibility to recognize that what consenting adults put into their own bodies in privacy isn't something you should have a say in?
One of those?
I dunno...sure seems true to me.
I don't think it's unreasonable for society to expect people not to commit crimes and punish them when they do.
It's a pet peeve of ours, too, when titles abuse "you". Headline writers use this trope because it grabs attention, which is their job; and it's our job to undo their grating gimmicks. In the present case, that's as simple as deleting the bogus "you".
Of course everyone knows it's illegal to rape or murder, but how many people know what "structuring" is? There are people sitting in federal prison for doing things normal people don't realize are crimes.
On the jobs side I have no idea what the right thing to do is. On one hand if people with criminal records can't get jobs you're pretty much forcing them to return to a life of crime. But on the other hand... if I'm hiring people I'll only hire a guy with a serious criminal record if I can't find anyone else. That's just self preservation.
Why? There's no clear evidence that particularly harsh sentences actually reduce recidivism.
I'm not sure that gun ownership for violent people is a good idea.