Elio Motors is crowdfunding its entire $25M investment round
startengine.com
startengine.com
Technically it's a motorcycle very similar to the Spyder - http://www.brp.ca/spyder/ - and (as of 12 months ago) some states would require you to wear a helmet and/or take a motorcycle test for you to legally be able to drive this thing.
https://eliomotors.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/lets-talk-about-...
(I have no idea what progress they made on getting those laws changed in the past 12 months.)
This plus the fact that 45+ states have already passed helmet exemptions for the Ello and other three-wheeled vehicles with non-removable roofs/windshields.
http://www.technologytell.com/in-car-tech/5760/elio-motors-m...
[0] http://www.eliomotors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/helmetl...
I suspect if they get a finished product off the line the number of states that classify certain 3-wheelers as cars will go up quickly.
They said that about Elon Musk, on both Tesla and SpaceX. What do you want to bet if crowdfunding had been a valid option back then that he would have used it?
I don't think anyone on HN will disagree that transportation will look vastly different in thirty years time in ways we can't clearly project. Even Ford is now looking into manufacturing both motorcycles and bikes.
To generate outsized returns for a small subset of investors, you don't have to be anywhere nearly as sophisticated as a VC fund: you can just run a lottery.
If you want to do something more socially useful than a numbers racket, crowd-investing probably isn't the best way to go.
The model makes some sense for simple branded products which (i) aren't that appealing to VCs and (ii) have chances of success closely allied to ability to generate buzz from evangelists (though I still expect the return on the asset class to be negative when its equity funding rather than pre-orders)
The model makes no sense whatsoever for technically complex but potentially very high return inventions, where the choice of crowdfunding as a fundraising strategy is basically a big red flag saying "we think people unable to do due diligence are our best bet for [the next stage of] funding"
Its worse! There is a good chance this is a technically complex but low return investment when compared to software startups (ie, snapchat).
Everything seems like a bad idea when you first start. That's the very nature of the new idea; it's something nobody else ever thought was a good idea... or else it wouldn't be a new idea. But this doesn't matter. We, almost all of us, simply cannot break outside of a paradigm. It has to be broken for us. The few that can break their paradigm are the same folks we read about on Forbes and Fast Company.
A few ideas that seem bad turn out to be good. Most turn out to be terrible, especially when the paradigm they're breaking was established precisely because most of the aspects of the idea have been tried, tested, and proven to be terrible.
And in fact, the regulation we have around it is because the problems didn't disappear after starting, they grew, as fraud in such a market is incredibly easy to commit, incredibly hard to improve, and extraordinarily lucrative.
Perhaps enough has changed with improved distribution of reputation to make it work this time, but... it's not new. It's old. It's widespread. And it's a common vehicle for fraud in every time and every place that it's existed.
Thus, I find myself thinking that yours is the kind of comment that people will link to in 2021 as a "can you believe this guy" comment, about how naive it was for you to believe that this time was different.
There's no oversight, no required disclosures, no stock/ownership, no liquidity, no insurance, no fallback protection, no guarantee of product, etc.
And this is supposed to replace all other forms of investing? I'm sorry but that just seems very naive.
Airbnb removed all the expensive rules and oversight intrinsic of the hospitality industry and opened the market, leading to new gains in market efficiency that are tough to compete with.
Uber did the same for personal transportation.
Crowd funding does this for investing. The real gains will be seen when the intelligence and agility of emergent, fast-moving fund pools are able to out-pace and out-perform traditional funds, indexes, and VC. That will change a lot of things.
FTR, I am talking about investing, not just preorders, but this may not mean that you get stock certificates in all cases.
1) Removing rules in any industry will almost always lead to increased "efficiency" in some manner. That's just a mathematical function of less layers in the way.
2) Airbnb, Uber and others did not "remove" the rules and oversight. They're just skirting the law and are not completely legal nor right in every market. We haven't seen anything final on how these companies will be regulated in the future nor what happens due to the various loopholes they create in consumer protection.
3) Airbnb, Uber and others deliver something in exchange for your purchase and fall under the basic commitment of all companies who provide products/service to not just take the money and run. They're also relatively small purchases with no lasting damages.
4) Finance is much more complicated and regulations are necessary for consumer protection, especially when dealing with something like cash that can have direct and lasting impact on people's lives with the amount invested and the reliance on future stability and returns. Like the other comments have said, it's been proven over and over again that deregulating actions can cause massive fraud and losses.
This is the same reason we have regulations for medical practice and law and banking and countless other situations where safety is paramount, even at the cost of some inefficiency.
Sources please.
The problem is that startup investing is nothing at all like investing in public company stocks.
Venture capitalists don't back a single company. The majority of startups fail. Pushing all your chips in on a single startup is like going all in on a queen high hand. Instead, VCs invest in whole portfolios of companies.
But that's not the only difference. Because most companies fail, there's a theme to VC investment theses. And it's not obvious, because it drives founders (who are atypically savvy about startups) batshit. It's this: the winners have to pay for the losers. A decent shot at a 2x return sounds like a no-brainer, but it isn't. The returns on the wins have to be so good that they make up for all the failures.
Then there's dealflow. Good VCs get preferred access to the good startups. Most startups that raise money --- and all the startups that fit the "win will pay for other losers" mold --- plan on taking more money. If your first round is low 7 figures, your second round is going to be 8 figures, and probably not crowd-based! If you know you're going back to PE/VC for money, you care about who take money from this time. So if you can take money from Sequoia, you do. Sequoia gets the best deals, and crowd-funders get adversely selected into crappier deals.
Most VC funds lose money. Those are funds whose investments come with control --- something no crowdfunding investor gets. They can fire the CEO. They get bespoke due diligence, not to mention the VC's network of other firms to syndicate with on future investments. And when they close a deal, they tend to get preferences built in. Despite all those advantages, they still lose money. Crowd-investors get none of those things. Why would they do better?
This is before we get into how comically subordinate common shareholders of private companies are. Startups routinely do things that would generate shareholder lawsuits in public companies. They get to do those things because they are taking money from people who know the game. Consenting adults. The crowdfunding public can't do that.
And finally, why do we grant the premise that normal people are capable of selecting startups to invest in? They're not even able to do that with public companies. In 2015, companies listed on the major stock markets have proven an ability to drive revenue. We know where their money comes from. Venture capitalists have to prognosticate about that. How are normal people supposed to compete with them?
It's just a bad idea.
Certainly back a few decades there's little difference, nowadays Ipos cannot be done without several volumes of paperwork by expensive lawyers.
If efficient IPOs were still around the crowdfunding market would be smaller. And IPOs of early stage companies certainly do not generate returns in a predictable way.
The Elio does beat the Lupo in price, though, but $6800 is of course an estimate.
http://jalopnik.com/5981938/why-do-european-cars-get-better-...
Using your number of 78mpg imperial for the Lupo, this is only about 64mpg us.
I admit I'm a little extreme in my car buying habits, but here's what I think whenever I buy cars:
- Does this make model of car have extremely good reliability? I honestly can think of few things I hate more than servicing my car. I want it to be appliance-level reliable. My current car has been in the shop (outside of normal maintenance) maybe under 5 times...mostly as the vehicle has gotten old. How do I determine reliability? Years and years of compiled reliability surveys: Consumer Reports, True Delta, etc. I expect any car I buy to have been part of a legacy of at least 5 years of continuously high reliability. This immediately downselects and eliminates about 95% of the market.
- If it breaks, how expensive is it to fix? To return to a reliable operating condition, I don't want to have to rebalance my entire finances.
- What's the car cost to operate per mile? My current car runs around $.20-.25 per mile, fully burdened (repairs, tolls, etc.). I don't want to spend much more than that and this car could easily hit that mark if it's reliable and cheap to fix.
- Is it safe? I want top safety ratings all around. Period. I'm not going to fool with that stuff. As it turns out, makers that make reliable cars tend to also make very safe cars.
- Do I like how it looks/drives/etc? It may seem weird to lots of people that this is the last thing on my list. But I've already prevented any sort of decision paralysis by getting rid of 95+% of the market. At this point I'm down to just a handful of cars, and now I just pick the one I like. Now I know I'll at least not mind driving it, and it won't piss me off by being in the shop constantly. I don't really care much about the image I'm projecting, I'm not trying to fit into some kind of clique or club or express myself. I just want to get to work as cheaply as possible and with a minimum of hassle. I'll enjoy the clique I'm in when I retire with all the extra money I've saved not buying image cars.
Can the Elio support this? Maybe and it looks promising. I'd buy it if it met all the criteria. The price looks awesome. But I'm going to have to be patient for 4 or 5 years of general availability to see.
There's also quite a few small automotive companies around that haven't successfully made the transition from specialty maker to mainstream success. This goes back to the early days of the industry and carries on through today, from Tucker to the Rally Fighter.
I like to think I still represent a big part of the industry, after all somebody is buying those Consumer Reports used car guides.
I bought my car for less than $5k, but I don't drive much and don't need to worry about occasional $1000 on repairs. For someone who needs reliability, buying a new, but extremely minimal $7000 car may be ideal.
If you want something you don't need to set aside money for repair on, you'll need to spend $10k+.
I'm really unsure about this whole 'equity crowdfunding' thing. Risky ventures are for a certain class of investor; you need a certain amount of information too. I'm all about getting public access into these things, but you really can't evaluate it on the information presented...
And this is an image problem in a country which pays twice as much for fuel, prefers hatchbacks to pickups, and has the original Mini as a national icon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Three-wheeled_motor_v...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptera_Motors
"As of January 2010, the number of unique deposits tracked at the unofficial Aptera forum surpassed 5000."
I know we are a corner case, but I would consider purchasing one of these. Well, if they get some YouTube crash videos up like the SmartCar video... My family works on a "primary car / backup car" basis. Most of our combined driving needs are covered by our TDI wagon. When we infrequently both need to drive on the same day, whomever is going on the longest trip takes the TDI, and the other takes the beater. I could see a car like this replacing the beater, or becoming the car used by whomever isn't driving our daughter on a given day.
Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Personally, I like to see marginal ideas tried again every couple of decades. An idea might click with the public in one decade that wouldn't have two before, because of changing perceptions and needs.
So you basically getting all the downsides of a motorcycle: safety, limited space, no passengers ,wearing a helmet (some states), without getting any upsides: beating traffic by skipping between lines (I know its illegal but most of the motorcycles do this), finding a parking easier, looking cool...The only thing it shares with a car is having a roof and easier driving.
Imho it's better to get a $3K cheaper honda bike: http://powersports.honda.com/2015/rebel.aspx
Assuming your guess is correct, you capture the safety downside. But that is only a guess on your part. To me, it seems like a silly guess -- I'd expect that this will be less safe than a subcompact, but still a good deal safer than a motorcycle.
There are still a few downsides you don't get. You get AC in this vehicle. You don't have to wear leathers because you can't fall. You have a sealed cabin, so road noise, while likely worse than a normal car, will be much better than a motorcycle. A trike is a lot more stable than a bike.
> without getting any upsides
Price? Fuel efficiency? Parking in such a small vehicle will be much easier than the smallest car, even if it's not quite as easy as a bike.
This is called lanesplitting and it's not illegal in California or most of the non-US world.
Anyway, the reason California allows this is because most of the country's good ideas start here ;-) It's demonstrably safer for motorcyclists and it saves everyone time, so why not?
Not sure it's the safest thing, but it's likely as another commenter mentioned, somewhere between a car and a two wheel motorcycle in terms of safety.
That reads like an infomercial. Kind of makes you worried about crowd-investment...
The only thing that makes any sense to me at least is a marketing angle -- by getting lots of people as "shareholders" you now have a base of evangelists to advocate for your car.
https://www.launchticker.com/story/automotive-co-eliomotors-...
this is really bad for crowdfunding....