I find this logic itself unreliable, because it presumes that all opportunities are created equal. In a number of cases I've stayed less than a year at a place where I really could see what was wrong a couple weeks in, because you get several offers, and once you choose one, everyone else evaporates.
I've certainly had to put my shoulder into getting past this, but it's shocking how common it is for basically any hiring manager to assume that the behavior of past hiring managers was correct.
In this way, hiring managers can be replaced by LinkedIn.
Also, keep in mind that your recruiters are contacting us when we're happily employed, and that at a recent meetup in San Francisco, I'm told someone raised their hand to say, "We're hiring", to a room of booming laughter. ;)
UPDATE:
I was thinking about this, something I think about a lot, and certainly one could say, "But how do you end up with several bad managers in a row?"
I think that once you have a resume that is off the beaten path at all - and mine was almost 10y off the beaten path before my recent spate of job hopping - it's tough to get hired by anyone except the desperate, who can't fill their position. You can learn and grow in these positions for a few months, but you look around and see stagnation in people who stay longer. I also worked for a number of managers who had never been a manager before, for a CTO who hired someone 3 months a year to do a job that he otherwise insisted on doing (badly), and for someone with an MIS degree that often talked about having been taught to intentionally foster dishonest and manipulative relationships with his staff.
I'm hoping the new gig sticks for a while, but you have to give respect to someone who keeps trying. Otherwise, I will say, in the past six years I've interviewed at over 200 places and worked at aybe six, and over 100 of those companies were the same bush league situation, and usually they had terrible diversity, and even though I'm a straight cis white male, the "bro" factor was way, WAY too high for me.