We know it's still not perfect though and our goal is to keep experimenting to find what works best and be open about the results. As we mentioned in our last blog post, we're planning to offer take home tests as an option for our next experiment.
Perhaps as well as take home tests you could consider a longer form one which builds a feature using several methods, offering help if required so most people don't get stuck. Say parsing a set of data files, something like that.
When hiring I've found walking through something like real work with candidates most useful, and also crucially using the same challenge for all for comparison.
If this data is present (data showing that present hiring methodologies don't predict successful business outcomes), do you have data showing that hiring people who need jobs is any better? We /are/ different from each other -- as an example so obvious it borders on the ridiculous, people who have been programming for ten years will be much faster at it than people who haven't. At what point do you draw the line to state that people stop being different? If so, what data did you use to draw that line?
[1] http://blog.alinelerner.com/resumes-suck-heres-the-data/