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Comment by ams6110 | Hacker News Reader

Just eyeballing the chart in the story, it's still up 10% from January 2015. That's not a bad return. This looks like a correction of a ridiculous overvaluation spike to me.

No market is predictable. That is why you don't try to do it. Invest regularly, i.e. dollar cost averaging. The couple who invested their entire savings in one shot during an obvious run-up made an all to common emotional mistake.

OC I haven't studied the situation there in any depth.

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But you're implicitly making a prediction or an assumption here, namely that there has been a correction. That there has been a correction. Are you sure that the market won't fall another 30% in the coming weeks?

You're implicitly making a prediction here. Are you sure that the market will fall in the coming weeks?

Something that goes up for no good reason (spurred by margin), will come back down for a very good reason: it should have never been up there to begin with.

Whether it's a week, a month, or a year, their market is going a lot lower yet. It'll retrace back to where it was, no matter what the central government does today. Trillions of dollars in real wealth will be lost in the debacle, as the event sets off dominoes.

Nope, that's not what I said.

But its what you insinuate, no?

Unless you were implying that this will continue, "Are you sure that the market won't fall another 30% in the coming weeks?" is simply a non sequitur. As of now this is something that could be called a correction; it could develop into something that could be called a crash.

As of now, if you invested the index four months ago, you haven't lost a penny.

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