No economy is truly a zero sum game and China is no different. In 2 generations - even if there are some troubled waters in between - these factory workers' children will be white collar workers or even managers of American white collar workers ;)
Post-war Japan was a miserable place with mass starvation, homelessness and unemployment, today it is the third largest GDP in the world with first world standard of living. There was even a bubble complete with massive foreign investment (remember what the building in Die Hard was called?) with a 95% drop in property prices in between then and now. China is currently where Japan was in the 1960s, and back then it looked pretty much the same.
They've been in recently for over a decade - probably close to 20 years now. As in, their economy has been going backwards, and shrinking.
That, and they also have deep-seated structural problems (e.g. aging population, incredibly high-saving rates with little spending - might be "good" for individuals, but not good for the overall economy is everybody does it/)
This is what's in your average PRC citizen's mind, not what the rate of growth will be in 2040...
That's hardly an apples to apples comparison.
I don't know if China necessarily aspires to follow Japan's trajectory - perhaps the rise, but certainly not the fall. Still, we'll see how things land.
Both countries started from nothing, had an enormous increase in foreign direct investment (including several bubbles) which led them to pull themselves upwards at GDP growth rates of around 10% per annum for long enough to make a noticeable difference in the standard of living.
Both countries are run by centralised governments with a mandarin-style meritocratic civil service pulling the strings (in Japan the keiretsu system with the MOF on top, in China the Party), and setting financial policy including invisible taxation mechanisms on the population (setting the rate on domestic deposits in China, continuous yen devaluation, tariffs and keiretsu consumer goods price-setting in Japan). The difference is that China waited until Deng Xiao Ping before changing policy and accepting growth as a path to prosperity, Japan started earlier and had a smaller population.
Inspiration-wise, I'd say Lee Kuan Yew had more to do with the philosophy and strategy of what Deng Xiao Ping set in motion than any imitation of the Japanese system.
It's the tipping point where humans, more often than not, no longer provide value. I can't help but feel we are VERY close.
Now, in the grand scheme of things, auto manufacturing is a relatively small industry in terms of labor force. What happens when this transition happens to the logistics industry, which is one of the top employers globally? Can we adapt quickly enough if land (including farming), sea, and possibly air are all automated within a decade? I'm not sure.
> The reality, however, is that China has struggled to create enough white-collar jobs for its soaring population of college graduates. In mid-2013, the Chinese government revealed that only about half of the country’s current crop of college graduates had been able to find jobs, while more than 20 percent of the previous year’s graduates remained unemployed.
Are those the two groups of jobs you meant? I don't see the distinction between them...
Just like how in the US, the problems faced by liberal arts majors struggling to find work is going to be quite different from that of factory workers who lost their jobs when the production moved overseas.
First, it doesn't factor in the expansion of higher education in the last 20 years. I don't have the statistics at hand, so I will just use my hometown as an example. Exactly 20 years ago, ~120 high school students from my hometown were enrolled into colleges (including both 4- and 3-years colleges). This year, approximately ~1400 will enter colleges this fall semester. That is more than 10 times. Note the total number of people of ~18 years old hasn't been increased. On the contrary, I think it is decreased, as a result of one-child policy.
Second, I think it has become common that countries, including USA, have been struggling to create enough white-collar jobs. I have both current and ex- colleagues who graduated from Ivy Leagues and are/working in customer service, support, marketing associates, etc. What they majored in colleges, like English, Classics, Psychology, etc. really doesn't help them much on looking for their first or second jobs. It is similar in China, but I wouldn't say it is worse or better there.