My theory is that people are shopping around for better employers and better cultural fit, and that it's not just a question of taking the highest offer any more. That would explain why wages are not rising.
When I was looking for my current job, I forgot to even ask about wages. So maybe what they gave me in pay is "flat" from five years ago, but it's still twice what any of my friends my age are making, while they have degrees and I do not.
I do not know about tech wages in the US. In Germany, the tech wages are not inflated, at least not in my opinion. The normal tech wages have risen maybe 3-5% per year the last few years in Germany (I don't call this inflated) and the years before it was even less.
In the same time, the wages for top-managers have risen maybe 10-15% per year and are since decades incredible high above the wages of "tech wages" (the difference is climbing and climbing). I call that inflated.
Your statement of course is more logical than that of the OP.
Also, in Germany you're at a 40% income tax rate at €43k, while in the US at €62k you're only taxed at 25%.
Sure, that 40% income tax rate gets you universal healthcare, while in the US we're paying ~6,339.71 Euros a year to insure a family of four. But I think even accounting that, wages are much higher in the US.
Likewise, programmers are quite useful as they can automate things and so act as a lever on requirements. But that doesn't mean companies have $500K to pay to someone to do that. It just means the volume at the normal programmer salary is very low compared to the demand at that same salary.