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Comment by x5n1 | Hacker News Reader

Spying is a good thing. Real information keeps people from second guessing each other and prevents cold conflicts from becoming hot.

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Spying is a wash - what you're saying is true, but it's only half the equation. Sometimes that second guessing is what keeps the conflict from becoming hot. Spying can compromise a country's defense to the extent another country feels comfortable attacking. Also, if a weaker country can maintain the facade of strength it's less likely to be attacked.

The most obvious example is when one country manages to uncover another country's nuclear assets to such a high degree of confidence it feels (rightly or wrongly) it can make a 100% successful first strike.

You need mutual spying, but if you have that, then the week country will know that it is 100% vulnerable to first strike, and surrender before it comes to that.

That never, ever happens.

How would you know that?

Give me one historical example.

You want me to give an example of something I'm claiming we don't know?

Surely if this is possible you could find one example in all of human history.

If I had better knowledge of military history, maybe. But I find it extremely unlikely that there has never been a situation where somebody knew some secret about their enemy that encouraged them into a concession instead of resistance. I mean, it happens in legal situations every day.

I'm not so sure you can count on a country to act in rational self-interest. Individual people aren't so good at that, and collectives can be less rational than individuals.

So the trouble is only when your voters get the information necessary to vote rationally?

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