If you're doing tricks on gravel, or travelling on mud or snow, or goring really fast, you may fall, sure, wear a helmet.
NEVER was it my fault. Just because you're not a dick doesn't mean someone else isn't.
It's not a perfect correlation, but it's very high.
Or to put it in other words: you are more inclined to buy a helmet if you are know that sooner or later you'll surely need its protection. Or since you have a helmet, you know that you can do things at a (psychologically) acceptable risk that you wouldn't do otherwise (the latter phenomenon is called "risk compensation").
Personally I almost never wear a helmet but scrupulously follow the rules: they are the only thing that protects me.
I've only ever bashed my head on the ground at very low speeds. You'd be surprised the damage you can do falling from head height. A bike merely increases the probability of that happening.
High speed; forget it. I drive a car now after I was totalled by a taxi.