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Comment by clarky07 | Hacker News Reader

My question isn't is it a bubble or not, the question is what would the effects be this time around?

Most people seem to agree the bubble (if it exists) is in privately held venture backed startup companies. Does the popping of that bubble have significant ramifications across the economy as a whole?

1. Last time they were all public companies, including the big ones like intel,msft, being wildly overvalued. Everyone lost money, not just VC's

2. It will certainly be harder to do a startup, but I suspect all these engineers won't be unemployed. They will go and work for AppGoogBook. AppGoogBook will welcome them with open arms.

To recap, at least I think/hope, VC's and founders are the only one's losing money compared to everyone who might be invested in S&P 500 (read everyone) and there shouldn't be any kind of major unemployment causing extra problems

Is this a reasonable view?

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I don't think it's a reasonable view. Leaving aside the question of whether we're in a bubble or not, if a bubble existed and burst it would have a major impact at least on the bay area economy as a whole.

1) What makes you think there is room at AppGoogBook for those unemployed startup engineers? If the bubble bursts, it'll be because of a reality-check in the growth potential for consumer technology and advertising. AppGoogBook are chasing a lot of those same areas.

2) A lot of service industries in the bay area are being propped up by the software industry. All those new restaurants popping up in SF--how much of their revenues comes from VCs and software engineers whose salaries are paid by VCs?

3) Real estate values and rents in the bay area will plummet of there is a readjustment in the technology sector.

1. "bay area" is not in fact "everyone in america/world" hence, much less bad.

2. I do not think that Apple, Google, and Facebook are significantly competing against many of these startups. Facebook maybe to an extent, by not Apple and Google. None of them are major phone manufacturers or search engines. The only reason a bubble bursting is a problem is for companies without revenue relying solely on VC money to run. Apple is not in fact relying on VC money to run. Apple alone can afford to employ every startup worked in SF (not that they would, but they could)

>3) Real estate values and rents in the bay area will plummet of there is a readjustment in the technology sector.

I can't imagine that as being anything but good news long term. certainly sad for those owners now though, i agree. Yet, still not everyone in america.

Rent never dropped in the Bay in 2008, it just stabilized for a few years. Anyone know how rents reacted in 2000?

Unfortunately when the bubble pops while the VCs who hold equity in the overvalued companies will be hit the hardest, the entire economy will suffer. The public stock markets will crash, the housing market will crash, etc.

The irresponsible valuations and investing will hurt everyone.

why would the public markets crash, and why would the housing market outside of SF crash?

I feel like I made reasonable assumptions as to why those things wouldn't happen. If you think that's not the case, at least provide an argument as to why they would, as opposed to stating it as fact.

Clearly you didn't live through the recession of the 2000s...

Recessions are never isolated. The entire point of a bubble is that investment capital chases gains. In the 90s it was tech. In the 2000s it was housing. Now we're back to tech again.

When the bubble pops, all those invested in the space are hurt. That means hedge funds, pension funds, etc, and the effects will absolutely ripple through the economy. I doubt it'll be anything like 2008 (which was greatly exacerbated by derivatives trading and so forth), but it will be felt well beyond the valley.

I did live through both of the last bubbles.[1] That's why I'm suggesting this would be different. I didn't say it wouldn't be felt at all, just that it wouldn't be nearly as bad.

are there really a lot of pension funds investing in 0-revenue startups in SV? That seems like a place I really don't want my pension.

EDIT: [1] I lost a lot of money on my house that I bought in 2008 and sold in 2014. It sucked. I can't imagine my next house losing money because snapchat goes out of business....

If it's just one company like Snapchat going under, then sure your house value won't go down because of that.

But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about a bubble bursting. That's a lot of value going out of the economy, and a lot of people losing money. That makes investors in general pull their money back. It creates an economy wide recession.

The ad industry gets hit hard during bubble bursts and recessions. Two of the biggest ad sales companies are now Facebook and Google, so they wouldn't be immune.

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