> Rising interest rates make it unattractive to hold long-term bonds. For example, when interest rates jump from 3% to 4%, the net present value of 10-year bond drops by 10%. So as soon as investors believe that the turning point has come, the rational reaction is to sell bonds, amplifying the raise in interest rates even more.
The rational reaction for a trader that believes they know more than the market and are looking to realize gain today. On the other hand, if an investor knows they have liabilities that match what a long term bond offers and are fully funded, and they don't care for second-guessing every other day, they're likely to not move out, or to move out a bit only.
> Then again, it is very hard to predict such things.
Indeed. Though as / when / if interest rates rise, how they do so at different points on the yield curve can suggest interesting things.
Just as long term bonds are at unnaturally high prices, I postulate that stocks are too, based on PEs over the past 10 decades or so (very Shiller). Might be worth looking elsewhere. Inexpensive (not cheap) real estate makes a huge amount of sense, especially in developed countries where a huge inflow of capital is flowing, and with easy visa deals, will continue to.