Autodesk’s John Walker Explained HP and IBM in 1991
cringely.com
cringely.com
If it's clear you've overpaid for the asset, you have to "write down" the goodwill (take the lost value as a loss). One example: http://www.businessinsider.com/hps-8-billion-write-off-is-re...
If it weren't for goodwill, no one would acquire anyone else b/c they would take an immediate earnings hit.
1 - Ongoing operations
2 - Investments
Investors care about margins (% of sales) on ongoing operations, but tend to view investments with a "Return on Capital" (% of assets). Note that margins are on flow, where as ROC is on a fixed asset. The idea is that if you know the margin and growth of a business, you can come up with a long term value estimate. (If you're interested, I can write more about how this calculation works) It's also worth noting that this isn't the "optimal" way to make spending decisions. Good companies know that it's worth treating all expenses as a "Return on Capital" basis rather than purely optimizing on margins. (This can be called EVA or Economic Value Added)
What the article captures is the essence of good leadership and management. You can't be 100% long term - investors would never know if the money is being well spent. You can't be 100% short term - you'll never invest for the future, and will get crushed when the future arrives.
There is one caveat... If a company decides that it can no longer innovate, then the "Stop spending money, and return money to sharedholders via buybacks so that they can invest it elsewhere" actually does make sense. (Move capital from IBM to companies who need it to grow)
Amazon?
There are many other companies that either lack that credibility, or have a history of wasting money. (>50% of M&A deals subtract rather than add value to the buyer)
If you look at it carefully, the accounting rules make perfect sense. Otherwise buying a building (or server) for my company will impact the margin of just one year and it would be difficult. The problem is that Goodwill is difficult to evaluate, so managers could decide to re-evaluate it as they want in order to boost their bottom line. But it is bad management, not bad accounting.
Regarding is point on sales, it is not even accounting, but the dumb use of financial ratios. Usually the company could use the earnings call and the notes on the balance sheet to explain this shifts. But again, it is a call on the management side to explain it and sometimes they prefer not to explain to hide from competitors. They need to find the right balance between hiding their moves from competitor and informing the investors...
“You Americans measure profitability by a ratio. There’s a problem with that. No banks accept deposits denominated in ratios. The way we measure profitability is in ‘tons of money’. You use the return on assets ratio if cash is scarce. But if there is actually a lot of cash, then that is causing you to economize on something that is abundant.”
I wonder what tech we have now that is sort of experimental, unproven but seriously at risk of being accepted: 3d printing, AR.
I'm not sure about these because while systems for these new tech exist, they don't appear quite wildly popular just yet.
What do you all think?
Statistical models at scale, encapsulated in a self service web platform with accompanying APIs are about to become the norm for non-tech mid market and small businesses.
SPSS family just does not compare.