This is based on what? You really think that most people can't be taught the basics of "Hello World", or a function that multiplies two numbers?
Plenty of people write Excel formulas when faced with the need to. That's "beginning to program".
But not that many people write Excel formulas. Up to 50% of people in the West don't have basic numeracy skills enough to do what you describe.
In my mind, the recognition of repeated structures in a spreadsheet count as beginning of programming. This sort of thing: "if I create this pattern of cell references and then repeat it across the grid arbitrarily far, such and such a result/behavior will emerge". It is like recursion unfolded, and on the verge of being codified compactly.
For context the UK used to have CSE and O Level Exams at 16 the CSE ones where for the vocational track kids who would leave school at 16.