Vinod Khosla: I believe 70% of VCs reduce the potential of a company
gsb.stanford.edu
gsb.stanford.edu
Hmm. Maybe there's something to that estimate he makes about how harmful VC advice tends to be.
There's no shortage of perfectly viable $xx million businesses pushed into chasing an [ultimately optimistic] hypothesis there was a 10% chance of breakout success which, when the mass market turns out not to exist, leaves them with the potential to achieve nothing other than failure.
In short, lots of potential $100MM companies are being done in by VC greed.
This is only one data point, but I know an entrepreneur who was turned down by a blue chip VC because the VC said he saw a clear path for the biz to $100MM, but the path above that level was much murkier.
It's amazing really how much this guy subs the press. He acts as the entrepreneur's friend when the truth in the Valley is the exact opposite.
Beware.
So when a first tier VC disses lower tiers for 'not adding value', he is probably stating the truth, but sadly there is no alternative. The superstars can't scale up without lowering the bars somewhere, so they don't. The companies looking for VC can't be too picky since no capital is no chance of traction. So in the end, you'll settle for the capital you can get and take the reduced value as a given. Remember that the outside option (no VC) gives no value, and the negative value is relative.
I think his criticism is pretty obviously that VC often don't add value (no matter what tier they are at). The things mentioned in the article seem be criticisms of business as usually (not of some performers getting lower rates of return).
It strikes me he realizes some VCs provide great help. And sure the cash is often helpful in growing though the growing quickly may well not really be good for the business when it distorts the companies focus to making huge financial bets to get huge returns.
@dhh provides lots of good criticism of VC funding, in my opinion. Watching his activity or going through his history would provide more details on the problems created by accepting VC funding. Of course, lots of people with lots of money don't see things the same way he does.
http://martinsbeach.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2015-01-...
If you feel that this is not how it should be: http://martinsbeach.blogspot.com/p/get-involved.html
It seems like screening for people who can build an MVP and a compelling pitch deck could be one of the best ways to do this.
I worked in several companies bootstrapped by very wealthy founders.
If VCs think the idea is worthless and execution is everything why waste time listening to pitches? Just hire the best people able to execute, give them the money and get out of the way.
I know one who hosts his/her own 'career sessions' for selected Stanford students -- mostly to identify and build new teams after seeing interactions.
Driving across the street to Stanford "to identify and build new teams after seeing interactions" to scout talent isn't being proactive. It's what the rest of Sand Hill Road is already doing. If you're really serious about finding the best talent, broaden your search. Don't count the white Stanford males out, of course, but look in the "flyover" states, or for older programmers, or for women, or for parents who might be interested in programming because of the remote-work possibilities. Look outside of the US, even.
VCs are good at telling the 7s Who Look Like Them apart from the 5s Who Look Like Them, and that's about where it ends. That makes them better at assessing talent than a great many in the business world, but they're missing out on an incredible amount of information.
I don't understand this quip. Assuming you're talking about ability rather than attractiveness, it's odd that you leave out <5 or >7. Does that mean you think VCs have a blind spot for both superstars and low performers?
VCs can probably tell a 5 apart from a 3, but it doesn't matter because neither a 3 nor a 5 is someone you want to fund. They can't tell a 7 from a 9, is what I'm saying. If they're not dealing with people of similar pedigree and experience, they may not be able to tell a 9 from a 5, even.
I think that "ranking people" is a fascinating topic in itself - unlike some, I do think there is validity to doing this although you have to be really careful to avoid bias, and to measure against the proper scale. I'd be interested to understand yours!
[1] They aren't always: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lev_Landau#Landau.27s_List
He has written a ton of stuff about VCs, programmers, etc. His riffs on the Gervais Principle are really good. He followed that up with some other gold.
The scale-of-10 stuff is his concept of how there is a mismatch of skill and power in the tech business world -- particularly between the programmer and the business folks. For example, highly-rated business people don't even work in tech -- they do other finance like private equity or hedge funds. That means that most of the top VCs are maybe 7s, and they're bitter about their relatively low status among their B-school peers. That also means that the top tech people (the 10s) struggle to find business people who are their equivalent of awesomeness. This is a short summary.. read the original stuff on the blog.
Some folks on HN do not like MO, so they seem to downvote him out of principle rather than based on the content. While I think that his tone can be terse at times (it seems to have gotten better in the past year or so), the content is often frighteningly spot on. I think that this makes some people uncomfortable.
My idea was more go out and hire all the great people (they are not that hard to find, just hire), pay them well (none of this 50% of the market wage in return for 0.0002% of the company), and put them to work with the minimium of outside friction. If you went to hire talent with an offer of good pay, total freedom in business direction, minimal VC politics, and solid financial support you would be able to put together some amazing teams. On top of this you could give up listening to crazy pitches from spotty 22 year olds.
Note also that the definition of great is a function of (atleast) timing and domain knowledge as well as raw ability.
I would prefer Vinod's brutal honesty to fake politeness any time.
It's worth adding that these in particular are good business practices with or without VCs, because:
1. It demonstrates that people will pay for your product. Nothing is worse than spending money making something only to discover nobody will pay for it.
2. It's aware of the 80/20 rule. Up-front payment does a good job of limiting you to the 20% of your client base who will make you 80% of your money. The clients who want things most on their terms, who will nickel-and-dime you, make unreasonable demands, and review you poorly to other clients, are going to balk at an up-front payment and go elsewhere, and that's a good thing. You don't need them. They'll weigh down your competitors and leave you more efficient.
I'd prefer working with those over a VC any day of the week if possible. They're usually bring a lot more value to the table.
Then there are wealthy individuals/families (e.g. Bill Gates, or the Walton family) who have less formal investing guidelines but occasionally back good entrepreneurs. This could be through seed capital, growth capital, or capital for a private equity style leveraged buyout. Raising capital this way is much more about relationships than the VC game is. It's a lot less formal. These people usually want to (help you) build sustainable companies, nit you're not really competing against a ton of other people/deals (like you are with VC firms). Even if someone came to them with a decent idea, they probably wouldn't back them.
I'm not a fan of the man personally, but I think he's right--and it's not surprising. When you bring in a VC, you get a team which is personally, emotionally, and temporally invested in the project, and you bring in an outside person for whom this is only a small part of his larger financial investments and give him a significant amount of control. Of course taking away control of a project from the people who are most invested in its success is going to decrease its chances of success. I'm not sure why this would be a topic of debate.
I have never been to the valley. Genuinely interested in knowing what makes a person so universally hated on this fourm. Unless he is the Donald Trump of the Valley. In which case I understand.
Vinod Khosla: Be Wary of “Stupid Advice”
that's like saying:
Donald Trump: Be Wary of "Gold Diggers"
one of my best devs was an english major. So ....I don't discount ANYONE for being an english major.
edit, another point: I wish there was more advice on how to separate good from bad advice based on more than what is described in the article text - english major, not having been a CEO etc.
Confession: I approached Docker like a maniac before humbly working my way through the official Docker user guide slowly and methodically, without distractions, doing all the exercises (and taking notes with questions). When I look back, I've done this with Maven and git, too. In every case my frantic scramble up the learning curve left me with broken, incomplete and unreliable knowledge that had to be repaired later. Lesson learned!
> In the first sentence, the writer told me he was majoring in English literature, but felt he needed to teach me science. (I sighed a bit, for I knew very few English Lit majors who are equipped to teach me science, but I am very aware of the vast state of my ignorance and I am prepared to learn as much as I can from anyone, so I read on.)
Tell that to Jack Ma.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/27/martins-beach-vinod...
> Khosla bought the 53-acre property for $32.5 million in 2008 and kept the beach open to the public for two years despite the fact that he was paying $500,000 to $600,000 a year in maintenance costs and liability insurance.
> In 2010, after receiving county court orders -- which he believed were unfair -- to keep the beach access open 24/7 and charge visitors $2 for parking, Khosla ordered his property manager to close the gate permanently.
Seems like it's not so clear cut. I mean, he was eating 500-600k a year without complaint maintaining the property for the public. That's pretty generous. Seems it was a dispute over parking and fees...and considering how trivial $2 is compared to the 500k+ he was already paying it just feels like there's a bit more to this story than "Koshla is an evil 1%'r".
edit
So, it was exceptionally hard finding anything from Khosla himself on the issue. But I did find a few more details on why the beach was closed.
So, when he got the property he allowed the same access as the previous owners. Which was generally accessible during the day, but typically closed at night, during bad whether (often during winter), and when "inconvenient" which I assume is when property managers were on vacation or whatever. This level of access has been confirmed by the previous owners, the Deeney's, in their court testimony.
So, for some unknown reason, the county issued an order to the property manager for them to a) reduce parking fees to $2 (which is what they were in the 1970's) and b) to keep the gate open 24/7.
Khosla's managers/attorney's/whatever thought this was a significant historical change in access policy and so fought it, closing the property until the dispute was resolved.
I got all this from the following article: http://www.mercurynews.com/san-mateo-county-times/ci_2616631...
The dispute was over a court order to also provide parking at a required rate of $2. (just repeating the article that was linked, I'm no expert on the legal details of this case)
And I wouldn't be surprised that this PR company would try to make a "hero" out of Vinod. And present him as a "hero, who is spending his own private money to support local surfers".
If you want to check facts, don't read blogs/potentially paid articles. Just go to the facts that a non-profit public foundation, created to protect our beaches provides. This foundation is generally spends its efforts on organizing beach cleanups. These are unambiguously good guys. In that case they've had to spend efforts on a lawsuit :(. Anyway, as a public non-profit they just don't have the ability to misrepresent facts or tell fat lies (unlike privately hired PR companies, layers or bloggers). So I'd just trust the facts as they put them:
http://www.surfrider.org/campaigns/entry/open-martins-beach#...
Effectively the court was allowing him to recoup some of his cost with parking, just not at the rate he wanted.
Edit: Oh your original post referred to one up several more levels, when I wrote this response I thought it referred to the post I replied to, but noticed no significant modifications.
It also noted that, at the time, the area's use had declined significantly due to smelt fishing decline which is why the previous owner sold it.
So, when the dispute occurred, he'd been providing the same access as ever when a mandate came out of the blue saying he had to provide a significantly higher level of access than was historically required and whatever extra costs that might incur on a beach that was largely unused at the time overall and during the periods of closer in particular.
So he was like "wtf, why?" in a very legal sense (the only sense that would work in legal disputes). And _only_ after the case went viral as some kind of down with the 1%'rs! rally cry did people actually start bothering to go visit the site...to make a point.
I'm sure the novelty will wear off and then they'll be some property manager that has to sit up there through the night and winter for....nobody.
Also I fail to see how the decline of the areas use would have anything to do with its availability, this isn't a use it or lose it situation. Can you explain how reduced usage of the beach should effect its availability at all?
There are a lot of unsupported statements going on for both sides if I take the ones that they seem to agree on I get something of a narrative like this.
He bought the property.
He kept the beach open similar to the previous owners.
Tried to charge $X amount for parking.
People complained, and the court told him he could only charge $2.
He said well fuck you guys I'll just close the beach.
He won a case to close the beach.
He lost a 2nd case forcing him to open the beach.
He lost a 3rd beach forcing him to open the beach.
He started opening the beach sometimes. Is it more or less than the previous owners? Well this seems to be where the core disagreement is with no real support or evidence provided to the public for either side.
I think he comes off sounding like a dick, especially at the end of that article that quotes him repeatedly which you linked, where he tries to re-frame the issue as one of conservation. You apparently see him as an entitled land owner, we clearly disagree. However if you would like to continue this, which there is no need to as I believe we have reached an impasse I would ask that any numbers you use are ones I can verify. Thank you.
"If you want to know what a man’s like, take a good look at how he treats his inferiors, not his equals."
Now size that up to billionaire status. They too are likely to take actions based on thinking that they are in fact right in their decision making. The issue in that case: billionaires often tend to impact a lot of other people with their actions, because so much of what they do is outsized.
My issue might be with my neighbors on a single property line marker. Or maybe they think my trashcans are encroaching on their curb area, pick the issue.
Billionaires generate billionaire-size problems.
This leads us to one of the most frustrating oddities of the Hacker News website: you can't collapse the comments. If there's a tree structure of comments, every comment will take up at least a good thumb's width of screen space.
The consequence of this is that every comment is an imposition on the reader. Every comment needs to be able to account for itself. Posting on Hacker News is a performance, rather than a conversation. We're on stage, whether anyone wants us there or not, and unless we're trying to write words that other people might find valuable, unless we're at least trying, then yes, we will be swiftly downvoted to oblivion by everyone, including people exactly like ourselves. There may be annoyance behind it, but there's scarcely enough thought wasted for malice.
One-liners must be very informative or situationally relevant messages. And properly capitalized and punctuated. Or else they should go unwritten.
It also seems he was trying to restrict access to the road, not the beach.
Maybe he didn't own the road, but it seems you should be able to restrict access to a road you own, but that no one owns a beach, and it didn't actually say he restricted the beach.
Maybe that was the intent, but maybe it was due to problems with the cars parking along the road after leaving it open for two years.
I do believe most VCs can reduce the potential of the company when the founders have a cohesive vision for it already and know how to run it, and they do have an interest in saying they are better than the others :) So it is a lot about finding those that give good advice, but don't force it, and that's incredibly hard to judge in initial conversations with any of them.
I'd recommend talking to companies they are invested in and their fellow board members (i.e. the founders who created the tech) that work for companies they have invested in.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easement
Basically, he entered into a contract as part of buying property and now he does not want to abide by it. Which suggests doing business with him is a terrible idea.
This brings me to the consideration that real estate agents are not lawyers, and that legal status of the easement might have been unclear or incorrectly represented when the purchase was made. Also, I think that if the road was being treated simultaneously as a liability and an obligation by whatever mix of regional law pertained, a legal confrontation would be completely understandable.
I do not know or assert that any of these things are the case, but I know that easements are complicated beasts, and that a simple violation of contract may not be the only explanation here.
Build something along side the road. Build a strip mall and rent bays to surf shops and restaurants. For the amount of money the article claimed he spent he could have afforded to build a hotel or resort.
The government would not allow this to happen. The California Coastal Commission prohibits any such development. I've talked to a local architect who had his plans to remodel an existing single-family home in that area scuttled by the commission. That's why, when driving south after Half Moon Bay, you encounter essentially no coastal development until you hit Santa Cruz.
There are one or two shops scattered along the way but those are grandfathered in; as far as I can tell if it didn't exist 30-40 years ago, it never will. If Vinod Khosla proposed building a strip mall, anti-development activists from all of California would converge on Martin's Beach and chain themselves to the bulldozers while conducting a hunger strike while environmental groups would file at least three parallel lawsuits.
Put another way, SF bay area politics are non-intuitive.
(Note I'm not expressing a normative opinion about whether development should be allowed; I'm merely saying what is currently allowed.)
Land is usually easy monetize, even after licenses and regulations, why does this billionaire have such trouble?
This is quite possibly the worst idea there is.