You would think that, but it turns out that isn't the case. [0][1]
[0] - https://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articl... [1] - http://www.deathpenaltyinfo.org/deterrence-states-without-de...
In any case: you can't reasonably make inferences about the effectiveness of the death penalty simply by counting murders in states that do or don't have it, since there are so many other factors influencing how many murders a state will record.
You're right, it is hard to draw any conclusions about the effectiveness by looking at murder numbers alone. It seems most experts would argue against deterrence being effective though and I would agree. If you can't say for certain whether or not something such as the death penalty is effective, then I think it is best to error on the side of not killing people.
Irreversible punishment is the height of arrogance.
Clearly, they are undesirable and, if detected, the remedies may be imperfect, but nowhere near as imperfect as the remedies for a mistaken death sentence once it has been executed.
(While "any mistaken legal sentencing is bad" is perhaps part of the foundation on which that argument rests, it is not the whole, or even the important part, of the argument.)
A prison sentence is reversible in the sense that the individual could be released; sure, the time lost cannot be retrieved, but the individual is still alive.
The argument that the death penalty is inhumane or against universal human rights it seems is a better angle to take.
I didn't say that. Killing someone is irreversible, so the error rate better be extremely low, or you just shouldn't do it. I understand that justice can't be perfect.
My point isn't that we shouldn't abolish the death penalty, rather that you should be able to apply your argument to all forms of punishment.
The argument the parent is making applies to incarceration, but it applies more urgently to the death penalty.
The parent already makes your point by (hypothetically) applying an percentage error rate that would be acceptable.
If the punishment, e.g. a fine, can be appropriately redressed, e.g. by paying it back (with compensation), then the error rate matters far less.
You can't redress human life.