John Nash Has Died
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When I was a teenager, I had the good fortune of attending a lecture by Prof. Nash. Although I did not have the maturity to truly grasp what he was trying to explain - the event did influence my later life. I started reading up about him and his struggles with his schizophrenia, the work he wanted to do, the fears he had of never achieving it, and how despite everything he ended up manifesting his work anyway. This influenced my own struggle with teenage depression and made me realise that there was probably more I could contribute beyond the seemingly staunch limits of my own mind. That altered my life trajectory in a "tiny" but measurable way, so that I - a complete stranger - feel moved by the loss.
I'm sure he stands for so much more to so many people and that's a testament to the power of a life well lived.
This is a wonderful legacy and i just love the way you where able to describe it on one sentence, thanks.
1: or "different" if you're too focused to bother with grammar ;)
Like many people, I never wore a seatbelt while riding in a taxi. I'm not really sure why, it just seemed somehow to be the social norm and I went along with it. Then one day, my co-worker and his girlfriend were both severely injured while in an accident crossing the east river in manhattan.
Ever since then, I've gotten in the habit of using my seatbelt while in a taxi, car, bus, or whatever. Sometimes I get weird looks from it. Sometimes I find that the seatbelt is buried in the seat because seemingly nobody has used it for months. I do the same thing here in Tokyo and I believe its still rare for passengers to care but at least the cars are cleaner and the belts are better maintained.
It's a bit odd that we (New Yorkers in this case) allow the TLC to push back on those regulations and win.
http://www.etymotic.com/consumer/hearing-protection/er20.htm...
I think I just really like low-impact high-reward behaviors. People tend to over-insure for common and minor issues and under-insure fore rare but costly ones.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identifiable_victim_effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudocertainty_effect
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-risk_bias
Actually study all of them... Then after studying those, be sure to study the cognitive bias blind spot so that you don't become overconfident ;-)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_blind_spot
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
Also, read Warren Buffett's annual letters to shareholders and try to emulate his approach to risk. I think he's very good at it.
My biggest problem, after becoming more risk-aware is being comfortable taking calculated risks. I often can come off as a bit of a party-pooper. Nothing says "Life of the party" quite like piling into a cab while hopping from one bar to the next and spending the first 45 seconds of a 5 minute cab ride trying to fish a seatbelt out from under your drinking buddy's ass.
I would say other behaviors that could seem odd to some people are:
* Never play lotto, but always buy tickets for local fund raisers or charity giveaways that have desirable prizes. My wife and I won a week long Black Sea cruise at a charity event where tickets were $10 each but I estimate less than 600 tickets were sold.
* Always buy things like renter's insurance (not likely to be used but will wipe you out if you need it and don't have it) but skip things like those insurance policies they offer at the store for non-big-ticket items.
* I stopped worrying about flying but I've become very pro-bicycle even though I don't bike much at all (because I'm a pedestrian and cars are a bigger risk to me than bikes).
* Pick software frameworks and libraries more based on well-trod paths than the new hotness. Avoid the very old and for the very new, wait a bit.
* And finally, on the other hand: I quit my job, moved halfway around the world, and started a startup in a country that is notoriously hard to do business in (Japan). That would seem very risky but it was the sum of a lot of very calculated moves that seemed like good bets when I took them.
There are probably a lot more. I bet you have some too.
++ advice to adjust the depth. I'm always modulating them based on the environment / band / track playing.
They were the best 15 dollar purchase I've ever made. I wear them even in only moderately loud situations.
Unlike foam earplugs, the only part that is visible is clear plastic so most people don't notice.
Edit: see below for a better definition of frequently
One of my friends was in a band and over the years that I knew him, I noticed he started to mix down his own music recordings hotter and hotter on the treble. I asked him why he was doing that and he said "I don't know, this is just how it sounds good to me." Later I realized that he probably has hearing damage and doesn't realize how much treble is in the mix for normal ears.
Keep in mind that 85db for sustained periods of time is the low end where noise induced hearing loss can begin. That's not really that loud. It's likely that your headphones can crank out over 100db and many people work in environments with loud, constant ambient noise.
Bands usually should be using ear protection as well.
The social norms are stupid and this would give you the excuse to ignore them without giving it a second thought (hey, the car is making me wear it!).
If someone makes such a deliberate and conscious decision not to wear a seatbelt, maybe you could assume they have their own reason for that.
It's not even clear that forcing people to wear a seatbelt saves lives. It may increase the risk to other people, if people are seeking out a level of risk that they're comfortable with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt#Risk_compensation
The evidence on either side is not enough to justify bankrupting fines.
The best the designers of products can do is "make them as safe as possible by default". There will always be people who actively work against those safety mechanisms though (like people turning off their ESP for that extra "sports-like" performance for their car - in urban traffic).
Maybe instead of a power button, cars should turn on when you buckle up after the brake pedal is depressed.
People will wear them or not. Making things more complex just means it will fail and make people do strange things.
I don't really give a hoot about the counter arguments against it, but at the same time I wouldn't let anybody in a car I drive without the seatbelt on.
They should hold off on the warning until you've shifted the car out of park.
I have always wondered why its so common to find cars with the rear seatbelts missing. The common story I get from taxi drivers is that passengers who don't like sitting on top of belt buckles shove them into the seat.
I'm from the UK, where using a seatbelt is pretty much universal, and when getting into the cab I'd automatically pluck at where the seatbelt should be.
Once when I was taking a ride with our agent there, a local, and he saw me do this, he told me off quite sharply for it...
He will be missed. Hopefully it can put focus on such a simple thing to save lives.
Cab drivers here won't drive if you don't put it on.
Seems like a good solution to me.
The basic idea is that instead of giving everyone seatbelts that unruly kids won't adjust properly and will use to whack each other's teeth out, you make really high padded seats so that in the case of an accident the passengers go flying into the seat in front of them, but its a relatively short distance and a soft, sturdy landing. The theory is called 'compartmentalization' if you're looking for a google search term. Here's one:
https://canadasafetycouncil.org/child-safety/there-need-seat...
Now, a lot comes into play here - the bus outweighs the pickup by several times, so it has the momentum to absorb the oncoming momentum and keep moving. But it's certainly not like hitting a flying bug. All that energy from the truck headed the opposite direction has to go somewhere, and it slows the bus dramatically in an instant. And these are high schoolers - no matter how many times the driver reminds them to sit down, sit correctly, they just won't. And even after all that, with no one besides the driver in a seatbelt, the students were all OK. (To satisfy curiosity: the driver of the pickup took serious injuries of which none were life-threatening; he spent two days in the hospital. He'd gotten impatient driving behind a tractor/trailer and decided to pass immediately after a curve without checking the lane first. This was a two-lane state "highway" and he was indeed in a zone that allowed passing.)
Then there's the Really Bad Accidents where the bus ends up on its side or upside down. Seatbelts are designed the hold under stress-- the button becomes near-impossible to operate and release. Smaller children will require the assistance of an adult. And there's ONE on the bus. With 50 kids. They make a safe belt cutter that a driver can carry, but now the driver has to visit every seat with multiple belts, cutting kids free, supporting them so they don't fall. This is not a scenario I'd care to have enter reality.
The only part that saved my life was that I had stacked a bunch of HP servers right behind the driver seat, the rest of the cabin was completely crushed in ;-)
(Edit: I will never own a 4x4 or any high center of gravity vehicle which doesn't have a roll cage ever again. The day after the accident, I was sitting at the junk yard looking at the mashed ball of metal which used to be my truck, I couldn't believe I walked away without a scratch.)
Both of us walked away without a single injury other than the bruises from the seat belt. I've worn them religiously ever since that day.
One of the serious accidents I was in (my grandmother turned a corner very slowly and the other driver was going 130km/h, with a pregnant lady in the passengers seat) did the exact same thing to me. I also got a black eye; apparently right as the accident happened I entered the brace position so quickly I hit my eye socket on my own knee!
1) http://eclkc.ohs.acf.hhs.gov/hslc/standards/hspps/1310/1310....
Also, that was an... odd collision; getting rear-ended usually does not eject the driver out the front nor flip a bus on its side.
In the US from 2003-2012, there were an annual average of 6 fatalities of non-driver occupants of school buses[1].
I treat that as an insult. As if their ego is more important than me not being launched through a fucking windshield.
It's easier than that -- just tell the driver you're not worried about him or her, but about the other drivers on the road.
http://www.driving-law.co.uk/offences/seat_belts-exemptions....
My dad never brought that curious aspect up (ex-taxi driver of ten years) but you can pick up dangerous people. I remember when I was younger, he had to take me to the police station as he identified someone in a photo book. He said at the time it was a 'runner' but I later found out it was because of a man who he had dropped off who went on to attack his ex-wife and ex-mother-in-law with an axe, which he had the whole time in my dad's car.
Knowing about these sorts of experiences, I can understand why they would forgo protection of a seatbelt when they potentially pick up these types of people.
It wasn't all bad though. He has fond memories of picking up famous Manchester Utd footballers, his favourite team, before they were famous, e.g David Beckham, Ryan Giggs, etc.
Sorry to sound so melodramatic, but I think that was the point of the advert!
"Like most victims, Julie knew her killer.
It was her son."
Also, my parents and grandparents grew up in different times in which seat belts were not required, or even present in the rear.
That video also highlights something I do too often: paying too much attention to what's going on behind. The dangers ahead are far greater.
At the beginning of every ride, it would play a pre-recorded message from you, generally from Michael Bloomberg or some other local celebrity asking you to buckle up. This got me into the habit of buckling up.
Now, the in-cab media plays a brief video message with no audio that tells you rates, who to call with an issue (311), and to buckle your seatbelt.
Maybe the lack of an audio prompt is why it's ignored now?
Interesting. I am guilty of having missed buckling ever so often. Mainly because I have had a speed are so slow, it doesn't matter attitude. I am also new enough to the city that I didn't experience the pre-recorded messages.
Are there seatbelts in buses?
The one great thing about Uber/Lyft/et. al. is how they forced the taxi companies to step up their game and make getting a cab less of a shithole experience, at least here in Philly. Cabs are much cleaner, the drivers are not always distracted with some bullshit, and you can even hail them with an app. Before Uber came around, taxis were well aware that they were the fastest way from point A to point B (if you don't have a bike), and they gave precisely zero fucks whether you were having a nice/safe time.
I think the mention of "some dude yelling in some foreign language" is unnecessary. A person's native tongue says nothing of their intellectual capacity, nor of their ability to safely navigate a city.
When I was in Egypt, I'd get in the cab, wear my seat belt and the driver will look at me weird. "So you don't think I can drive?"
A few years later, the police started enforcing the law and most cabs didn't even have seat belts. You would get in and find a sort of belt that doesn't even tighten, hacked together only to circumvent the law.
Not to say that in the US it is any better. If you wear a seat belt while in the back seat, you are considered weird. It is a stigma that is not easy to get rid of especially for the younger generation.
Side note: I do get some dude yelling in English too. So yes, it is irrelevant.
Citation? I am sure this is true for some people, but this does not match my own experience or what I can find when searching the web.
By definition doing anything outside of "normal" is weird, but in the case of social conventions it's usually because people just haven't thought about it enough. I'd rather be considered weird than be in a crash without a seatbelt on.
Andedotally, I've been in cars with taxi drivers who were on the phone when I got in and talked for the entire ride, whilst navigating a city traffic, while also looking at their gps to work out where I needed to go. I did not feel safe in the slightest.
If it ever happens again I'd like to think I could ask them in a polite way to end the conversation or exit the cab, but how?
Granted, when you're yelling at people on the street, it's likely roadrage and unwarranted in any language but, admittedly, that sense of rationality is slightly depressed in this situation.
Just because sometimes it does not depends on you, and even the best drivers can have an accident.
I think people expect taxi drivers to get in less accidents because they are so seasoned. They can come within inches of other vehicles and dangers but with an indy 500 driving skill.
It seems like driving on the edge like this would encourage others to use a seat belt but alas when you have 3 people piled in the car for a short ride it gets overlooked. It really should be a standard to wear a seat belt.
Only kids school buses can get away with not wearing one and that is primarily because a school bus is so huge that others impacting it does little, and if a school bus driver had to seat belt all the kids it would take forever and the trip would be over before it started.
Specifically, a complaint that the bus should have had belts can be met with the reply, "But that's the way school buses have always been." In contrast, there is no similarly-reasonable-sounding reply to the complaint, "If only the supervising adult had done his job and ensured that the kid was buckled in!"
Same to the social norm of not wearing seatbelts in the backseat (which is where you usually are in a taxi).
For those unfamiliar with the NJ turnpike, where the accident happened, the speed limit is 65 mph and people drive like maniacs. Definitely a place where you want your seatbelt one.
Some busses don't have seatbelts, but for everything else it's just a subconscious thing that I always do (and as far as I know it's the same for almost everyone here because the penalties are quite severe - in some states, the driver can get demerit points if one of their passengers is not wearing one. For example, at certain times (usually holidays) in New South Wales when they have double demerit points, if you have two passengers unrestrained you get 12 points (at 13 points you lose your license for 3 months).
This is a bit off-topic. Do a lot of people use Uber? I have been here for a few days, can't seem to find an Uber. The app always says not-available. Flagging a cab seems a nightmare for a tourist. And grabtaxi works but there appears to be some level of negotiation at the end of the ride. The grabtaxi prices seem more like a suggestion.
As an Australian I've spent my entire life wearing seatbelts. It's second nature. I don't even think about it. Taxis or otherwise. In fact I think it's required in all cases.
But in the US people seem to view the choice to turn a mild car accident into a severe or even fatal one as some kind of moral stance or personal freedom. Or rather any effort to require their use as Big Government or the Nanny State.
Some states still don't require rear passengers to wear seatbelts. [1]
Personally I wear a seatbelt in cabs and don't think twice about it. I'd feel uncomfortable without one.
Anyway, sad news.
[1] http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_legislation_in_the_...
"Self-reported seatbelt use among adults in the United States increased steadily between 2002 and 2010, with the national prevalence reaching 87% in 2010. However, seatbelt use in states with secondary laws continues to lag behind that of states with primary laws. This lost opportunity has tremendous costs. NHTSA estimated that nearly 450 additional lives would have been saved, 12,000 nonfatal injuries prevented, and $1.6 billion in societal costs saved in 2009 alone if all states had primary laws." http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437512...
Random anecdote: I travel to India on a reasonably regular basis to visit family, and I'm inevitably the one person that insists on wearing a seat belt and gets called out on it. Before traffic laws were actually (sort of) enforced in the city I generally visit, front seat occupants never really wore them either in my experience. It boggles my mind that people would travel at 120 km/h on inconsistently paved roads with insane drivers on the road and no seat belt to hold them in place.
Did you mean, "it constrains itself to the Overton window?" Or, "it attempts to move the Overton window (up/down)?" Because saying it "overton windows" the discussion is meaningless.
If we go along that road, what's next? Should police officers be everywhere, ready to snatch a beer from an adult's hand if he seems to have had "too much" to drink already? What's too much? How do you know? The Nannier a state gets, the closer you are to complete tyranny.
Instead, we could just consider everyone personally responsible for their own choices.
- Didn't wear a seatbelt and got paralyzed in an accident? That's certainly tragic, but you're personally responsible for your choice to not wear a seatbelt.
- Didn't wear a seatbelt and nothing bad happened? Well good for you!
People are terrible at assessing risk and they probably need a gentle legislative push for some things, like seatbelts.
So, you are then leaving the driver of the other car having been in a fatal accident, because you did not want to wear a seatbelt.
If you want to drive on a private road without a seatbelt, drunk, whatever, that is entirely your choice. If you are likely to interact with other road users, then your choices impact others. (Note: your choices on a private road impact your family etc, but, you do not risk leaving someone feeling guilty because they had a car crash which killed someone)
Of course, we have laws that all children must be suitably restrained in a motor vehicle because, hey, they're not adults. And we have laws that drivers must wear a seat belt because...well, I blame the insurance companies for that one. But America hopes you'll wear one anyway, because it's the smart thing to do.
The corollary, if you'll forgive my noticing, is that your government doesn't think you're smart enough to wear one on your own.
And so it's not really a "moral stance", but rather a general preference that our government not treat us like a bunch of ignorant monkeys. America wants you to live a long, happy life, but hey, you take your chances. Because you're an adult. And America will be sad if you fuck up and don't wear a seat belt, but life goes on. Mostly.
And now you may point out all the places where this convenant breaks down. The Drug War. The "Broken Windows" model of policing. The (up and coming!) Surveillance War. Well, fair point. Sure, we're flawed, remember? And so we try to make it better, over the long slog of decades. Sometimes it even works.
But the key idea, I think, is that by letting people fail, by letting them do stupid things, by treating them as fallible but sovereign citizens rather than a bunch of ape-men that need to be continually managed, they might become better, all on their own.
We'll let you know how it goes.
I hope this helps.
You do have laws telling you where abouts you can cross a road, right? Laws about jay walking?
(Your tone is sub-optimal. I guess that's why your getting downvotes.)
And my thanks for your concern about downvotes, but I'm not very much bothered about them. What's the point of writing for the approval of a largely anonymous group of others? My only concern might be that my words would be construed as disrespectful to the late Dr Nash, but on a second reading I don't really see that. If some folks choose to disagree using some arbitrary points system instead of arguing properly, I guess that's their own affair.
For some bizzare reason though, it is somehow acceptable to not wear a belt when you are in a taxi, as if you are magically protected by the "professional" driver. I'm not 100% sure but it may have something to do with being in the back seat as well, as if that made it somehow safer.
I personally always fasten the seatbelt and have never had the slightest odd look from the taxi driver.
But it does.
IIRC one of the differences was in the airbag requirements, where cars designed for USA driving have air bag systems designed with the assumption the occupants aren't wearing seatbelts.
http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/04/18/304540007/episo...
I was curious to learn more about his work a while ago and had looked up his PhD thesis. Here's a link: http://www.princeton.edu/mudd/news/faq/topics/Non-Cooperativ....
What struck me was that it only had 2 references to prior work! That's how you know you're doing innovative research.
Google "reproducibility crisis", "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" by Ionnadis, "The Garden of Forking Paths" by Gelman.
The other reference was to a book co-authored by John von Neumann. It was written in 1944 but is still in print and can be purchased on Amazon.
If you're going to have only two references, you could do worse than citing those two people.
It was an afternoon of Monday, May 9 2011 (the so-called ‘Victory Day’ in post-Soviet Union countries - that’s how I remember). For the previous 2 weeks, I was busy working on my final project for the Information Retrieval course - Natural Language Processing project which aimed to teach Japanese grammar with example sentences. The Spring semester was about to end, and I was struggling with my New Jersey pollen allergies while having a lunch with a friend at the Frist Campus Center.
We were sitting at the table right next to the tray return conveyors, so when I spotted a familiar figure returning his tray, I decided to approach him. That was indeed Prof. Nash. The topic for the conversation was not hard to find, as just a couple of days before on the Kazakh news sites, I saw that he was one of 6 Nobel Laureates who attended the annual Astana Economic Forum in my hometown. Apparently, he just got back from the forum past Friday. We talked about his meeting with the Prime Minister, the fact that the meeting with the President was cancelled on the last minute. He said it was his first time in Kazakhstan and his second time in the former Soviet Union country (he's been to Saint Petersburg a couple of times) and one thing that surprised him was the fact that all the signs in the Central Asian country were in Cyrillic (not Chinese). We chatted for about 5-10 minutes. I guess, that’s how you blow an opportunity to talk mathematics with the legendary mathematician.
Next year in May 2012 he attended the Astana Economic Forum once again. It just so happened that he flew back on the same Lufthansa Astana -> Frankfurt flight with my family who were traveling to the US for my graduation. My mom told me how over the course of the flight a few times on his way back from the restroom he stopped by my younger brother Nurym and in complete silence watched him time his 4x4x4 Rubik’s cube solves.
One year later in May 2013 while browsing the shelves of The Labyrinth Bookstore in downtown Princeton I stumbled upon the book “The Essential John Nash” which with plain and informal style attempts to explain the Nash’s diverse contributions to game theory as well as pure mathematics. It was so good that I finished one chapter right at the store and took the book home.
The world lost a beautiful mind. Rest in peace, Prof. Nash. The Phantom of Fine Hall.
Imagine I asked you to absolutely sprint full speed into a tree while blindfolded. So no time to brace yourself or slow down. You'd probably refuse, thinking this will either hurt very badly or even permanently injure you in certain circumstances. And that is at 12-15mph for most of us. In a car you are going at least twice as fast at all times, and have all sorts of fun objects to break your motion, like steering wheels and dashboards.
You absolutely would not drive into a wall sans seatbelt at 30mph, even with a newer car. You'd be a fool to do so, as you will get injured and MAY not survive said injuries.
The most legible copy I've found on the web is here: http://www.cs.upc.edu/~ia/nash51.pdf
Requesciat in pace.
I've stumbled on it a while ago, now is a fitting time to share it. Thanks John Nash for teaching me how to cut a cake, and many other things in life.
They posted this yesterday shortly after the crash, but at that point they did not have the bodies identified: http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2015/05/2_dead_in_nj_t...
Turns out, the movie is a rather good depiction of the struggles that Nash went through. He published a groundbreaking paper as a grad student, married Alicia, suffered from schizophrenia, and learned how to manage it, eventually going back to Princeton as a damaged but wiser man, and worthy of a Nobel prize in economics. All of these major points were covered in the movie.
Nash himself found the movie to be close to reality, except that it may have suggested that he went back on newer antipsychotics--see the interview he gave to a Nobel reporter 10 years ago[1]. In fact, the movie was much more fair to his point of view than he admitted in the interview.
Some details of his life were left out, but his reputation as the "Ghost of Fine Hall" was preserved. I see the film as a fair presentation of his life, especially compared to the Hollywood standard for "true stories"--see The Hurricane, American Gangster, JFK, etc.
http://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Pages/Bus_Crashworthiness.as...
Just a note, New Jersey, like most states in the U.S. requires the use of seat belts for drivers and passengers, even in a taxi and police will cite you and passengers for not wearing them. Drivers will get double cited if passengers are not wearing them.
If there is one thing we should take away from this highly tragic loss it is: seatbelts save lives.
In my experience, i.e. just the people I've met (mostly in their mid-20s), locals here don't care. In the rare cases seatbelts are available, they don't wear them, and they even laugh off my suggestions to do so. The taxi drivers generally do wear them in their front seat, but I've also noticed them going without.
It's very strange and infuriating to me that not wearing a seatbelt in taxis seems to just be the culture here. I'm from the UK so wearing a seatbelt has always been a natural instinct. It's such a simple, low-cost action that can have such a high payoff in the event of a crash. It just seems obviously a better strategy to wear one than to not, but maybe that's based on my points system where fitting in with the traditional, 'done thing' weights much lower than trying to optimise my personal safety.
I've noticed this in other Latin American countries too, in particular Brazil. In Brazil if I remember correctly the taxis did actually have seatbelts fairly often, but locals (again, just people I met in their 20s) don't wear them. Indeed, when I suggested a friend buckle up in a taxi doing 80 km/h on a city road, I was told something like "that's not the Brazilian way". I was absolutely dumbfounded!
Back in Bogota, one interesting side point is that Uber cars generally do have seatbelts, and are in much better condition than the typical street minicabs. As a result, when I can order an Uber, I do. I think it's a very interesting thing that's happening there - the Uber cars aren't just disrupting on price, but on standards too. The latter is far easier than the former here, I'm sure, and despite the non-seatbelt-wearing culture you'd imagine it has to appeal to enough people to give them a competitive edge, which may go some way to pushing up standards all round.
rest in peace troubled brilliance
[edit: oh come on downvoters, tomjen3 is stating an opinion held by many and it kills any hope of discussion when someone gets downvoted into oblivion]
Another time I was in a taxi and the driver fell asleep on the highway. We were in stop and go traffic and after a long "stop" the traffic started moving but we did not. I noticed the driver sort of slumped over in his seat. I yelled "hello?" and he startled awake. Couldn't just get out and walk, we were on a highway in the middle of winter in Montreal.
I never heard of game theory before, and it piqued my interest, and it is quite amazing how much watching a movie did to increase my knowledge!
Maybe when we have self-driving cars men and women like John and Alicia won't have to be killed in "accidents" caused by people who don't understand how to drive without murdering others.