FlightCaster (YC S09) Takes Off With $1.3 Million In Funding And A New API

Flightcaster is all about the probability of being delayed though. The big customer is business users who will rebook on a flight that has less of a chance of delay. Airlines don't want that.

Also, what's their rate on false positives?

False positives are a killer to the airlines - they don't want to risk losing customers to another flight/airline when there will actually be no delay.

To customers, false positives are likely to be a minor issue though, probably the number of true positives will outweigh occasional false positives.

But without a false positive rate near 0, I can't imagine the airlines themselves being too interested in flightcaster's predictions.

Yes.

There's a few metrics the airlines care about, the most important is leaving the gate on time. But once you're on the plane they can make you sit there for however long it is to sit on the tarmac.

When I was flying constantly for a month, almost all my flights were on time. FlightCaster did predict 2 flights that were to be delayed despite the planes pushing off on time. We just sat on the tarmac, upwards of an hour, before finally taking off.

By the same token, FlightCaster didn't predict the three other flights I was on that was delayed.

Either way, the use case is kind of limited. Even if the prediction is true and given enough warning ahead of time I have no means, and in most cases no need, to switch flights. For business travelers that have the expense accounts to make this work, this is a great tool.

FlightCaster lies in the predictive equivalent of the 'uncanny valley'. The problem with this kind of service is that while even 90% accuracy would be a great technical achievement, even 99% accuracy is probably insufficient for practical use. How many people actually change their arrangements because FlightCaster 'thinks' the flight is delayed vs those who simply wait to hear the official word? My guess is, not enough to build a business on.

It depends on who "you" are in this example. If you're someone who is flying for personal reasons or non-mission critical business reasons, then you're 100% right - knowing ahead you'll probably be late is interesting, but not enough to do anything about since you don't want to pay change/cancellation fees. I'm this guy when I travel for personal reasons.

But I also travel a lot for business, and when I do, travel is 100% critical. If I don't show up when I am scheduled to, there will often be several thousand people - not to mention three national news networks - waiting for me and my traveling party. Those people won't wait around, and will embarrass me and my people on a national stage.

Hence, for business travel, I use a travel management company for all my movements. I fly full-fare economy (so there are effectively no penalties to change my flights), and have a someone who gets paid a significant commission to monitor the status of my travel plans and adjust them on the fly based on weather and traffic conditions. Maybe 1.5 times per month I'll get a call/email from my travel guy some time between a day and a few hours before my departure telling me something has changed - either my routing or my departure time (incidentally, my travel guy is the only person outside my team who has access to our detailed daily calendar, so he can adjust for this).

I have no doubt that my travel manager would pay good money for this information, if it was statistically reliable. For people who travel for fun, I think you're right - a delay isn't a delay until the airline says it is. But for people who absolutely have to get where they're going - to the level that they'll charter a plane on an hours' notice if needed - this would be invaluable.

I wish FlightCaster was available last June.

Fresh from my wedding, I waited in Dulles airport with my wife to take a trivial flight to JFK. From there, I would catch an international flight off to my honeymoon. Of course, things are never that easy.

It started with United claiming weather issues at JFK. Understandable, as getting delayed in to New York is a common occurrence. But we noticed things weren't adding up when the scheduled departure time would come and go while we were still on the ground. United delayed our flight -and no other- 30 minutes at a time for 6 hours straight.

I tried to find out what was going on. I checked FAA reports, I called multiple airline booths in both airports, no one could explain why -only- our flight was delayed and why it had been delayed for so long.

With FlightCaster, I get the ability to calculate opportunity cost. For my case, we missed our international connection, had to pay for a last-minute hotel in New York, and lost a day of our honeymoon. The direct cost to us, in both economical and emotional terms, was WAY higher than the cost of switching to a different flight.

Knowing the winning horse after the race is useless intel. But knowing which horse has a edge is powerful information before the fact.

This article explains it. 2 groups of people (1) they just want to know they might be late, telling their friends, etc (2) business travellers will pay to avoid the risk of a delayed flight

4 hours out, airlines notify users of ~4% of flights that will eventually be delayed 1+ hours.

FlightCaster right now captures 40% of those flights 4 hours out (and growing as the algorithm is improved).

That is the origination of the statistic.

I'm a frequent business traveler, but I don't see being able to expense flight change based on predictive analysis.

Is there anyone within the travel industry that can speak to the market demand for this? Does this cost the airlines $x/year, or booking services?