Who Wants to Be a Thousandaire?
damninteresting.com
damninteresting.com
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFEBCve-3Cw
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzNMCXWCZzQ
as well as the original episode itself:
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h07eO0SKtUI (better quality, split into parts)
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkM10SxmmwU (lower quality, whole episode)
My point is that I don't think you can say he was cheating. He played within the rules of the game and couldn't just drain cash out of the system forever.
Just because you didn't technically break the rules doesn't mean the house thinks you played fair. Hint: for them "fair" = "house wins". (For a gameshow, winning entails making much more in advertising money than they have to pay out in prizes and spend to produce the show.)
I imagine no one ever won that money.
He could have really used some CS/math coursework
I think you could probably, after some practice, radix-sort bills into a 10×10 array by a digit pair at about 4Hz by hand, maybe 1Hz at the outset. 100k / 4Hz would be about 7 hours, so your initial sort pass (with piles averaging 1000 bills) would take 7 to 28 hours. A second sort pass over the next most significant digits would take another 7 hours, and then the bills would be sorted into groups of about 10. At that point you'd want to put the money into, say, a thousand or ten thousand envelopes, organized into drawers or folders or something, so that when the DJ calls the number, you open the right drawer, pick out the right envelope, and scan through the five, ten, or twenty bills in there to find the right one, if you have it.
You could do the passes lazily, too. Spend the 7 (or 28) hours to do the first sorting pass into piles of 1000. Then, when the DJ reads out the number, pick out the right pile of 1000 and spend 4 minutes sorting it into 100 piles of 10 or so, which you then stuff into 100 envelopes, possibly calling the DJ at the time. If the DJ calls another number with the same leading two digits, you're prepared; if not, hey, it's 4 minutes.
So you're right.
Sad. He legit hacked the Press Your Luck show by figuring out hidden patterns that he could use to do the apparently impossible. Too bad he didn't have the knowledge to hack the DJ's contest.
Sadder still that he let the money come ahead of his girlfriend.
You can take, say, 300 bills in your off hand, use your thumb to flip each new one, and use your good hand to take it from the handful and place it into one of the 100 piles within arm's reach on the table, according to the digits you saw on it while your hand was returning from placing the last one. If you're doing this in 800ms, then when your hand is empty, you have spent 240 seconds and can easily spend 10 seconds picking up and riffling another 300 bills, bringing you to 270. After two hours of this, you have sorted 8000 bills into 100 piles of 80 or so bills; you should now take a ten-minute break. After another two hours, you should spend five minutes putting those 100 piles into envelopes so they don't fall over, and take another ten-minute break. (Or a half-hour break for lunch, which I wasn't counting as part of the workday.)
That's what 1Hz looks like, and I think you can get to that speed pretty much right off the bat, especially since accuracy is not crucial here (unlike in almost all cash-handling operations!). And yeah, 4Hz sounds "wildly optimistic", but it isn't, really. That kind of speed improvement for manual movements with experience is common for assembly-line tasks. Watch the knife movements of a sous-chef on video, and consider that every one of their movements is irrevocable; they don't get a chance to spend time straightening crooked cuts.
some other obvious ideas:
- only the serial numbers matter not the physical bills, write them down on a ledger with an index
- bill reading machine with simple ocr, scans all serial numbers into a db
- solve the opposite problem: given the dj's serial number, is it possible to track down that particular bill? Arbitrage the opportunity by running the same contest in other states for a lower sum
(Disclaimer: I didn't try this at home.)
So the operative question is how many bills were ever in circulation, not how big the theoretical space of the serial numbers are.
Does anyone know if the serial numbers are printed in order? I didn't see the answer in a very cursory web search. If they are, presumably it would be trivial for such a contest to avoid ever paying out -- just choose from the upper end of the SN range.
Afaik, the only time serial numbers get reused is when a bill is reissued because it is damaged or worn, in which case they would shred the old bill (also, the new bill would get a neat star next to its serial number).
Depending on which parts of the serial number the DJ read off (just number, or number and letter), there could be up to 832 bills for a single serial number: http://onedollarbill.org/decoding.html
That's generally what the "serial" part of "serial number" means. And why the smarter bank robbers ask for non-sequential bills, because new bills generally have consecutive serials which are simpler to trace
1 Trillion is 150 singles for every human alive
But how long would it take to sort out those 100,000 dollar bills in the first place?
There are a lot of losers out there -- isolated, paranoid and looking for their loophole in the system. They'd be just fine if they'd realize that getting some social skills and learning to work well with others would fix most of their problems with the world.
The word loser is a shitty judgmental word, almost always used perjoratively, and never descriptively.
This is a man who wanted to find a way to the very top.
I think that if he was born 20 years later, he would have been a web developer. He has a knack for pattern-matching, kind of a programmer-brain feature, don't you think?
[1] According to http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/14/news/economy/us-millionaires... more than 600,000 new millionaires were minted in the US in 2013, out of an adult population (age 18+) of roughly 250 million. Thus 1 in 417 US adults became a new millionaire in 2013. The odds are actually much better than this among people actively trying to become millionaires, because most US adults are not engaging in activities that could possibly position them to achieve this.
If you want to convince someone that a lottery is a bad bet, you have to convince them that working and investing is a better investment for them: it's irrelevant that it's a better investment for the public as a whole. And the people who market lotteries know that, and choose who they target based on that. You'll see more ads for lotteries on the subway than you will in an in-flight magazine.
BTW: Pick a random moment from a 24-hour period, and there is a better than 50% chance that my next meal is breakfast.
Odds are odds. And I think that if people understood that they are at least 24,000 times more likely to become a millionaire by starting a business than they are by playing the lottery, they would start a business instead of playing the lottery.
Also, starting a business is a lot of work, whereas buying a lottery ticket costs you maybe $2, so their expected ROI from the lottery is considerably higher.
Of course, that just means neither one is a good investment, but what you're really buying with a lottery ticket is the fun of imagining what you would do if you win, which isn't necessarily a bad deal for the price.
While the odds are much better, the capital I need to risk/invest is much higher.
So, while the expected return is negative, it's only marginally negative. And if I do manage to win, the outcome is hugely positive.
It's not rational, sure, but it's less irrational than you make out.
Those with a income < $10,000 a year and who play the lottery spend an average of $597/year
table 10: http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/ngisc/reports/lotfinal.pdf
That isn't necessarily the case if you're resourceful. Someone can teach themselves to code, register a domain for 99 cents, get a Microsoft BizSpark account and have a free server for 3 years, etc. If you want to write apps you're at $125 ($99 for an Apple Developer account and $25 for a Google Play developer account) but that is still far less than most lottery players spend on the lottery each year.
The other positive is the entertainment in the anticipation that you may win - watching the numbers roll out.
Disclaimer: I don't play the lottery it is a waste of money.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2012/11/28/why-winnin...
So while not winning in the lottery might seem like a bad outcome, in fact you've avoided an even worse one. Which confoundingly means rational winnings maximization strategies (such as picking less commonly chosen numbers to reduce the odds of sharing a prize) in fact make the expected outcome of lottery playing even worse.
All that can really be said is that winning a lot of money doesn't make people much happier than they already were.
Even if we assume most of those did become millionaires through "hard work", you can't say that becoming a millionaire is just down to the odds. If you already have $900,000 then your odds of becoming a millionaire next year are vastly greater than if you have $5.
Most middle-class retirees are millionaires now, considering inflation and property values, not to mention how much someone with even a modest salary can squirrel away over 40 years in savings and retirement funds. The metric the parent poster used is very misleading. Personally, I don't consider someone a proper millionaire unless that value is separated from the "need to live" stuff like a house or car or retirement fund.
I think getting rich like this is pretty darn rare. I don't belittle the "gambler's approach" or the crazy business idea approach. I've seen others win before with things I considered stupid or super risky. Life is funny that way. The guys who "made it" all remind me of Michael. They just didn't screw up step 2 - go low risk after the first big win.
The lottery odds, while a lot smaller, requires you only to invest a couple of bucks each week and to remember to check if you won.
Also there is not a formula that you can follow that will guaranteed you to become a millionaire from work/enterpreneurship and investments, while the formula for lottery winner it's quite easy. Buy a ticket.
I have a gut feeling that those in the bottom 40% income brackets have a much, much lower chance of making $1e6. I'm guessing that it is probably closer to that of winning the lottery.
I would like to see the numbers/proof though, to see if my hypothesis is correct.
Really worth the listen.
Always interesting to read about people being about to connect the dots in what most people would consider complete randomness / chance / luck.
According to them this is about fun and entertainment, a little winning here and there is ok. But winning big is a problem here.
The math nerd's winning at Las Vegas casinos probably brings more profit in terms of suckers that read "bringing down the house" and an introductory black-jack counting book then they could cost ever them. The Casino's hard-line against this is some kind of deep-seated and antagonistic mob-mentality more than any actual losses.
0: http://www.damninteresting.com/the-enlightenment-guide-to-wi...
Has anybody ever worked out what he did?
I'm just an internet commenter though, not a psychologist, so take it for what it's worth.
1.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisocial_personality_disorder
That's one of the biggest tell-tale signs of a sociopath. I couldn't piece together much about his personality from the article, but I'd bet a Jackson that this guy was a sociopath.
This attitude fucking sucks.
http://mic.com/articles/44423/10-professions-that-attract-th...
Being a great businessman doesn't mean he's less likely to be a sociopath, it actually probably means he's more likely.
I do not consider sociopathy to be debilitating all the time. The same can be said for claustrophobia. A mild form of it produces discomfort the person can control. Severe cases would qualify for more drastic treatments.
So, it may be true there are more sociopaths in business. I would not refute that. But whether the sociopathy is debilitating is to be examined. And that, I would assume require assessing the individual if they are happy with their life.
And it's nice of you to try and generalize away my point by calling me some sort of armchair psychologist. I was just stating my observations from reading the article. I didn't outright call the guy a sociopath; I said I would bet money on it though.
> This attitude fucking sucks.
Recognizing sociopaths and other personality oddities is not a "sucky" attitude. It's a self-defense mechanism.