Android is splintering, just not how you think it is...
russellbeattie.com
russellbeattie.com
Despite its open-source nature, we haven't actually seen any real forks of Android yet. I'm assuming that's the sort of splintering the article refers to.
I understand that the promise of Android is compatibility across many different kinds of devices, but at this stage it's a bit of a strawman to pull out the Archos which is a: not a phone, b: a very early device and c: not Google sanctioned.
In other words, I'm with Tim Bray on this one.
1. different devices have different hardware capabilities: my 1G doesn't have bluetooth, early iPods don't have a camera, etc. Apps have to deal with that on every platform and it'll only get worse as Apple ads more hardware features.
2. different screen resolutions: Android is simply ahead of the game on this one, the iPhone isn't going to stay at 480x320 forever (I'm willing to bet a lot of money next year's iteration will not have that resolution)
I hope Android succeeds to keep Apple innovating and honest.
OK, so everybody can take Android and run it on their device.
Google needs to get control quickly. I had originally suggested using the Android logo and trademark (which they may or may not own) as a way of ensuring compatibility, but it seems the logo is creative commons. So maybe they need to come up with an "Android Approved" logo or something.
Doesn't that give even more confusion to the customers? Companies can change Android in whichever way they want and still call and market it as Android. Adding another method of distinguishing Android devices won't help solidify the brand.
(Also, people will still try to run your app and complain when it doesn't work. It's like your application breaking because of injected code on a jailbroken device -- you shouldn't have to worry about it, but those users will still leave negative feedback, so you'd better fix it quickly).
The most likely thing is that different manufacturers will have some sort of certification process a la Appstore, but less restrictive in terms of allowed functonality. I know for a fact that Sony and Motorola are pointing that way.
I'm still pretty sure that within a year this situation will be normalized as more specific guidelines come up. Indeed, some devices will be left out. However as long as most devices have access to the important applications I don't think anyone will be too worried.
Just plug in a device, and press play in Eclipse.