Most people think that creating innovative products relies on 'trend-spotting' and on reacting quickly to demands. But that is reactive. You can have a much bigger impact if you're willing to shape the future.
This is why Doug Leone quoted is wrong when he refers to the PC and the iPhone as black swans, because they were not. They were products attempting to shape the future. Marc has an uncanny talent at detecting what startup may shape the future and creating a set of financial tools to ensure that market acceptance can happen.
This talent is what makes A16Z so amazing - they are so different from the average bean-counting VCs, whose sets of tools are focused on financial exits and powerplays inside boards.