Most of Apple's policies handling the app store make me somewhat believe they wanted their original plan to succeed, namely, making developers write web applications and not opening up the iPhone to native development.
Agreed. I think there's at least a 50% chance that the original plan was a console-like model where the only native apps would be from Apple and hand-picked partners. The popularity of jailbreaking forced their hand, because if unlocking became common it would ruin their cozy relationship with the carriers.
I don't think that's right. They've made the app-store a central part of all iphone advertising campaigns.