The only books that have ever felt coherent to me start with p(data, unknown) as being an approximate model of some domain. Everything then follows smoothly as inference, modeling, and computational methods or shortcuts.
The only books that have ever felt coherent to me start with p(data, unknown) as being an approximate model of some domain. Everything then follows smoothly as inference, modeling, and computational methods or shortcuts.
In the end though the only thing that matters is whether a particular procedure has predictive value. Even with the most principled Bayesian analysis the model or prior are strictly speaking wrong (usually both), because the real world is complicated, so even there you're only left with testing predictive performance in practice. Careful probabilistic modeling is only valuable insofar as it lets us focus our search for inference procedures on those that are more likely to work in practice. A good counterexample is deep learning, which does not (or did not) have a solid probabilistic justification, but works extremely well in practice.