Comcast Plans to Drop Time Warner Cable Deal
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
"..as someone who has played regulatory poker with Comcast for 15 years now, I can say from personal experience that no one counts Comcast out until the game is well and truly over. Even if the rumors are true (and I have no way of knowing), these would only be staff recommendations. Comcast still has plenty of opportunities to plead, cajole and bully DoJ and FCC into submission.
Which is why it’s important to remember my advice from last February with regard to Title II reclassification: DON’T BE THE SEA HAWKS! We need to continue to keep the pressure on to get this over the goal line..
• The Antitrust Case Is Much Stronger Than People Initially Assumed.
• The Three Legs of the Antitrust Stool: Access to Programming, Access To Set-Top Boxes and Access to Broadband.
• Recent Win By The DoJ Supports Key Elements of the Potential Theory Against Comcast/TWC.
• Nobody Else Really Likes This Merger — And Most People Hate It.
• Conclusion — Still Too Early To Call A Win, But Path To Victory Clear."
It is important to stay vigilant.
populism certainly hasn't stopped other
terrible ideas from coming to fruition (Citizens United)
What does a SCOTUS justice care about populism? They're appointed for life. They care about their legacy, or the legitimacy of the institution[1], but it's not like Americans are going to show up at the Supreme Court with pitchforks and torches in hand. If you want to make sure another Citizens United decision doesn't happen any time soon, it would be worthwhile to think carefully about your choice for President next year.edit: also, as others have noted, this deal wasn't under the purview of the Supreme Court, but instead the FCC, FTC, and DOJ.
[1] http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudenc...
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, former key aides of three of the top tier candidates have established Super PACs in support of their former bosses[1], basically eradicating any air gap between the campaigns and 'dark money'[2] that used to exist.
Clinton, at least for now, is pledging to push for campaign finance reform[3]
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/21/magazine/the-next-era-of-c...
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_money
[3] http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/04/14/hillary_cl...
Pardon my cynicism, but I can't even see the mirrors because the smoke is so thick.
Conservative:
Scalia
Swing: Kennedy
Liberal: Ginsburg
Breyer
Had Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, and Breyer all stepped down and been replaced either in the two months before Citizens United was first argued (or in the following six months before it was re-argued[1]), we would have likely seen a 6-3 decision in favor of the FEC.So even if Clinton doesn't manage to get campaign finance reform legislation moved through Congress[2], a reshaped Supreme Court would be enough to undo Citizens United for at least a couple decades.
If Clinton were elected for two terms, you'd see roughly the following makeup of the court in 2025:
Thomas 78 years old
Alito 75
Roberts 70
Sotomayor 70
Kagan 64
Clinton Appointee 60-68
Clinton Appointee 60-68
Clinton Appointee 60-68
Clinton Appointee 60-68
In other words: Conservative: 3
Moderate-to-Liberal: 6
So, even if a Republican won the White House in 2024, it would take until sometime in the 2030s or 2040s before an overturned Citizens United could be reinstated.[1] Some interesting speculation on why this happened: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudenc...
[2] Which, given current circumstances, seems unlikely, as it would take another Democratic wave election, even bigger than 2006's to happen (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/08/us/politics/08house.html)
Don't tease me. That would literally make my decade. I wonder what Thomas would do without being able to blindly concur with everything Scalia says? He might actually have to start talking again during trials.
> it would take until sometime in the 2030s or 2040s before an overturned Citizens United could be reinstated.
One major issue is that the USSC can't just go back and reverse bad decisions (Citizens, Voting Rights Act) on day-one of a new 5-4 liberal majority. They'd have to get a case, stretch standing (again), and then explain why they were reversing course, which they're usually really against doing until a significant amount of time has passed.
But this is probably the only realistic option we have. We'll never see another constitutional amendment, let alone for something that would harm conservative election prospects.
Are SCJs allowed to call a friend during deliberations?
>other terrible ideas from coming to fruition (Citizens United)
That's SCOTUS for you. Bush put in Roberts and Alito, both arch-conservatives. We're going to have a conservative majority for decades. Beware the usual HN and reddit dialogue of "both parties are the same" as it leads to voter apathy and things like a weak candidate like GWB winning a second term.
Not necessarily. On average, the last 10 justices to retire have done so around age 80, and that's with Stevens (who retired at 90) pushing the average up. Assuming (a) that this trend holds, and (b) that next President serves two terms, four of the nine justices may be replaced in that time. After all, come 2016 Breyer will be 77, Kennedy will be 79, Scalia will be 80, and Ginsburg will be 83.
Currently, the Court is 4-4-1, with Kennedy being the swing vote, though in recent years he's sided with his Conservative colleagues more frequently.
If a Republican president wins, it's possible that Breyer (who leans left) will outlast him. But it's less likely that Ginsburg will. And it's almost certain that Kennedy and Scalia would retire. With the swing and at least one left leaning vote flipping Conservative, the court would be 6-3 Conservative, if not 7-2, and likely to stay that way for another decade. But if the Democrats take the White House and Breyer and Gisnburg retire before 2024 (likely in both cases), then both Kennedy and Scalia will also need to hold out until 2024 just to preserve the 4-4-1 status quo. It's an unlikely prospect, given that they'd be 87 and 88 respectively.
If Scalia goes first, the Court would become 5-3-1 Liberal, with the importance of the swing dramatically reduced. If Kennedy goes first, taking the swing vote with him, the Court would become 5-4 Liberal, thus negating Scalia's power should he decide to linger, thereby increasing the chances that he'll retire as well. With both gone the Court would be 6-3 Liberal for a generation.
For what it's worth, Liberal voters are intensely aware of these numbers. They'll push Hillary as far to the left as they can during the primary phase of the campaign, but given the prospect of a clear and long-term advantage in the Supreme Court - and a bone-deep fear of what Conservatives would do with the same advantage - you can be absolutely sure that they'll be unified and motivated in the general election. Indeed, given how few major issues unite all Democrats, there's a good chance that reshaping the Supreme Court will become a central issue in the general election, since it's pretty much the only thing that everybody in the party can get behind without reservation.
Of course, Conservatives are looking at the same math, and they'll be just as unified and motivated for the same reason. However, the GOP is also burdened by a general lack of popularity (they trail both Democrats and Independents in terms or registered voters), structural disadvantages in the Electoral College, and the fact that voter turnout in Presidential years favors Democrats.
(Also, for what it's worth, I think lots of people who don't follow the Court closely would be surprised at how few decisions are actually decided 5-4 along left-right lines. The majority of decisions, even under the Roberts court, are unanimous, and 6-3 or 7-2 decisions are also quite common, as are 5-4 splits along some axis other than the "expected" one. Again, I think the perception of political polarization, while not entirely undeserved, is significantly overemphasized in media coverage.)
It's not overstating the case to say that losing the next Presidential election will mark the Conservative movement's final chapter. This is the movement that started with Barry Goldwater, came to fruition under Reagan, began to wobble badly when Gingrich became Speaker of the House, and shit the bed completely under Bush. Since then, we've been living in an interregnum. The old order is damaged beyond all repair, but still had enough residual strength and momentum to keep its replacement from solidifying. But if they lose the Court - which they are sure to do if Dems win the White House in 2016, the electoral reforms that will be the death of them have a clear path to victory.
Reduced to total political impotence, the bubble of lunacy, fear, hate, and anger that keeps platforms like Fox News in business will finally deflate. Remnants will exist, to be sure, but they'll be limited to control of a shrinking number of economically backwards red states, and even that won't last for more than a generation. Whatever is left after that will be taken about as seriously as the Westboro Baptist Church or the KKK.
By positive synergy I mean on the revenue side. "They have A sales people selling B per year on product set C. We have D sales people selling E per year on product set F. If we allow their salespeople to sell F and ours to sell C, our revenues will grow from A * B and D * E to A * (B + E) and D * (B + E)."
That's a long way of saying revenue promises rarely materialize, but cost ones usually do.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-mergers.htm...
They are effectively merged already. They stay away from each other, treating customers like each other's property, and offer comparable services at comparable prices. They aren't in any real competition with each other. I'm not saying that they should merge. Rather, I'm saying that them not merging isn't a quick fix of the underlying issue. Americans need actual choice of providers within a given technology.
There were precisely zero content providers (outside NBC) who were looking forward to dealing with a monopsony that also owned a direct competitor.
Democrat or Republican doesn't matter. Lobbying and who is offered and receives campaign contributions, etc. matter. It's about manipulation, money and power/getting re-elected, plain and simple.
Notice the Reps and Dems on this list of campaign contributions from Comcast: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=D000000461
Top Recipients from Comcast:
National Republican Congressional Cmte, John Boehner (R-OH), National Republican Senatorial Cmte, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte, DNC Services Corp, Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte, Ed Markey (D-MA), Democratic Municipal Officials, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Fred Upton (R-MI)
Comcast spent $16,970,000 on lobbying in 2014. They likely lobbied both Reps and Dems.
Those noted who own Comcast shares:
Barber, Ron (D-AZ) Boehner, John (R-OH) Cohen, Steve (D-TN) Collins, Susan M (R-ME) Cooper, Jim (D-TN) Dingell, John D (D-MI) Frankel, Lois J (D-FL) Frelinghuysen, Rodney (R-NJ) Hagan, Kay R (D-NC) Hanna, Richard (R-NY) Heck, Dennis (D-WA) Holding, George (R-NC) Isakson, Johnny (R-GA) Kelly, Mike (R-PA) Marchant, Kenny (R-TX) McCaul, Michael (R-TX) McDermott, Jim (D-WA) Pelosi, Nancy (D-CA)
OpenSecrets has been sweeping that disclaimer more and more under the rug, to the point where now I'd accuse them of lying.
When you hear that "Company X gave money to candidates", what you're really hearing is "people who reported that they work for Company X gave money to candidates."
If Comcast's plan was to "expand", then it might be forced to get into TWC's markets soon anyway, which means TWC will also respond by going into Comcast's markets. At least that's how I'm hoping it will play out.
The only thing that's good is the hope that with the deal called off, it won't get any worse than it already is.
The only company I know who does it is RCN, and they only do it in big cities.
Meanwhile, the town's also considering municipal fiber now that the whole net neutrality stuff happened (and having watched another nearby town implement its own locally-grown fiber).
I am quite glad this deal is off. I have been TWC Internet service user for many years and it used to be so-so compared to FiOS. When I finally had the chance to switch to FiOS I was very excited, but after comparing customer service, speed, and price, I just couldn't move away. I couldn't move to RCN because so many instability (probably due to over provisioned pools). TWC's new plan is cheaper and pretty reliable where I live.
I did invest some serious cash on getting my own modem SB6141 and a very good wireless router, which definitely has boosted bandwidth and performance. TWC and Comcast's stock modem sucks (and now you either buy or rent). I was surprised to see how many people were willing to rent because of simplicity; go to Amazon, spend $100-$130 on the modem, ship it, and install the modem.
As a customer, I just hope we can have more reliable options. Technically, $40 for up to 100 Mbps is still a little high (but 3-5 years ago it would be like $70, $80 a month). The day when we are offered 100Mpbs at "DSL" plan price range, I will be really happy. Actually, I'd be even happier if we can build out the cellular data technology... "4Gb for $40? Yes, first 1G at 4G speed, the rest, like 56kpbs." I want to see the day when cellular data can be just as quick as my home network.
I am not very concerned with other monopolies (search, TV, , music etc), but telecom monopoly is a big concern to me.
The price is reasonable though regardless whether it's NYC or not. What Verizon charges for 0.5 gigabit is simply insane.
Because Verizon stopped caring about landline Internet for a while already. Not because it's not profitable, but because current Verizon execs are all from the wireless department (unlike previous Verizon CEO who was from landline part of the business and started FiOS effort to begin with). I.e. Verizon just wants more profits from wireless and wants to get rid of landline altogether. It's idiocy or greed or whatever. Nothing good anyway. We are lucky NYC actually holds Verizon accountable for their contract (since they got massive tax cuts for promising to wire the whole city with fiber).
> Verizon's lack of substantial profit margin on FiOS is well-known.
After Ivan Seidenberg has left, FiOS was doomed. Wireless execs weren't interested in making it more profitable. Not because it couldn't be, but because they didn't want it.
> The price they charge for 0.5 gigabit is what they have to charge to make up for their unionized workforce, build out requirements, etc.
That's nonsense. They charge lower prices for the same line (which is the bulk of what they get). Barely anyone in residential FiOS pays such crazy prices (businesses is another question). I.e. they can provide much more bandwidth even for their lower price tiers and still be profitable. They just want to rip off the higher one.
As to your point about ripping off for 500 Mbps--I don't think you understand how much cross-subsidization is built into the framework. As part of their arrangement with the city, Verizon has to pass a bunch of neighborhoods in NYC that will have very low FiOS uptake.[1] They have to recoup the cost of that from somewhere, and charging high prices for premium tiers is how they do it. It's not a "rip off" when the overall wireline profit margins are as narrow as they are. It's just like how Apple charges $100 more for $10 worth of extra flash memory on an iPhone (except their profit margin is comical compared to wireline).
[1] Something Google categorically rejects in Fiber cities.
pyvpx already explained it very clearly above:
> not when those dollars can be spent on LTE/wireless and see a far greater return. just because something is profitable doesn't mean there is something even MORE profitable to spend dollars on (in VZs case, wireless wireless wireless)
That's what I meant as well. They can have profits, but they want more profits. That's about it. I.e. it's a conflict of interests between their landline and wireless divisions. They simply see landline as unworthy, because wireless provides them higher profit margins. Not sure how it can be fixed though. May be they can be split into two separate companies.
In the case of San Francisco, this isn't surprising; San Francisco's Congressional Representative (Nancy Pelosi) is a Comcast shareholder IIRC, and I suspect that's only one example of likely governmental interference with such prospects (and possibly one of the root causes; I'm not all that familiar with San Franciscan politics, but I'd reckon that - if she's truly representative of San Franciscans - then they've probably voted similar candidates into other municipal positions).
That latter aspect is closer to my point. If San Francisco's (for example) population is collectively willing to vote a Comcast shareholder into office as their representative in the federal government, what makes you think they wouldn't do the same for their own local government?
Not to mention that if any of them are her (or some similar politician's) "supporters", they'll likely lean toward the supportee's stance on a particular issue (like Comcast's marketshare in San Francisco being negatively affected by a hypothetical Google Fiber rollout).