I am confused. Is "Start" always a 1? Then how can the first chord change also be a 1?
The 1 is the key, which is to say, the lowest note played in the progression. If it's less than 25% then that means that 4-chord progressions frequently do not choose their minimum as the first note.
The size of the bars is normalized, not necessarily indicative of probabilities. That's why I isn't any bigger than the rest.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/32ol86/cho...